Silicon Valley got my attention: the future of Web businesses

It all crystalized earlier this week when Ethan Stock, CEO of Zvents showed me his new Web-based business. See, I’m pretty slow. It took me four years to get blogging after Dave Winer first started his. It took me two more years to really get RSS’s relationship power. I still haven’t gotten OPML totally (although, I’m working on a directory of my blogs that’ll be pretty cool, so I’m fairly far along getting that).

On Monday night Steve Gillmor explained what he meant by attention (he started AttentionTrust.org). See, I thought what he meant was that attention was all about gathering the clicking behavior of people like you in a central database. Imagine when you go to Bloglines. Thousands of people visit that every day. They all click on links. Bloglines tracks those clicks. I thought that was attention data that Gillmor was talking about.

I was wrong.

And it took me seeing Zvents (and hanging out later with the smart folks from the content and advertising industries) for me to get it.

So, let’s dive in. Zvents is an event page. You tell it that you want to see a football game this weekend. It gives you a result back. So far, pretty basic stuff. But, click on an event. See the Google Map? Forget that it’s Google for now. Let’s call that a Web Buzz Building Gadget.

Now, see the Google Ads over to the right? Let’s call that a Web Monetization Gadget.

So, here’s the new Silicon Valley business plan. You build a service. Add a Buzz Gadget (Google/MSN/Yahoo are working on more to come). Add a Monetization Gadget (Google calls that their Web Advertising Platform — MSN and Yahoo are working on their own). Mix and mash and we have a business. Guess what? This business will be very profitable. Why? You develop it cheaply and if you did your job right, a boatload of people come and visit your service, like it, keep coming back, and hopefully they click on the ads (the more they click on the ads, the more money you make).

Now, that sounds cool, right? But here’s where attention could come in.

What is Zvents capturing? Well, they know you like football. They know you probably are in San Francisco this weekend. And, if you click on one or two of the events, they know you’re interested in them. Now, what if you see an ad for a pair of Nikon binoculars. If you click on that, then Zvents would be able to capture that as well.

Now, what other kinds of things might football fans, who are interested in binoculars, who are in San Francisco, want to do this weekend? Hmmm, Amazon sure knows how to figure that kind of problem out, right? (Ever buy a Harry Potter book on Amazon? They suggest other books for you to buy based on past customer behavior!!!)

It goes further. Let’s say this is 2007. Let’s say that Google (or Yahoo or MSN) has a calendar “branding” gadget out. Let’s say they have a video “monetization” gadget out. Zvents could build the calendar “branding” gadget into their page. What would they get out of that? Lots of great PR, and a Google (or MSN or Yahoo) logo in everyone’s face. But, they would also know where you’d be this weekend. Why? Cause you would have added the 49ers football game to your calendar. So, they would know where you are gonna be on Sunday. And, that you just bought binoculars. Over time Google/MSN/Yahoo would be able to learn even more about you and bring you even more ads. How?

Well, let’s say you’re Starbucks. Let’s say you make a deal with Google to put Starbucks ads on Google Maps. Let’s say the ads say “$.50 off of your next latte if you give this code: XZP1.” So, you go into Starbucks and give them the code. They punch that into the register. It reports back to Starbucks headquarters that you bought a latte because of the Google ad. Then, they report back to Google that you bought something (Starbucks will get a discount on their ads for this kind of reporting).

Now, Google knows you like coffee too. Oh, what Google knows!

It’s all attention. So, now, what if Zvents and Google shared their attention with everyone through an API. Now, let’s say I start a new Web business. Let’s call it “Scoble’s tickets and travel.” You come to my site to book a trip to London, let’s say. Well, now, what do I know about you? I know you were in San Francisco, that you like coffee, that you just bought some binoculars, that you like football. So, now I can suggest hotels near Starbucks and I can suggest places where you’ll be able to use your binoculars (like, say, that big wheel that’s in the middle of London). Even the football angle might come in handy. Imagine I made a deal with the local soccer team. Wouldn’t it be useful to put on my page “49ers fans get $10 off European football tickets.”

But, it gets even better. Now that the system is capturing my attention, and sharing it, my Web Gadgets (both branding and advertising) get better over time. They start to thrill me at some point. And, when I go to a search engine, it can see ALL my attention data and start suggesting things it thinks I’d like (sorta like Amazon suggests things to me).

Now, imagine my blog hooked into this attention system. Wouldn’t I get better ads along the right? Damn straight you would. And, let’s say I had a weather gadget on the right. Wouldn’t that show you YOUR city? Yes.

Wouldn’t it be able to see changes in your behavior over time and bring you even cooler stuff? Let’s say this system watched you for three years and then you started searching on pregnancy. Or “best price on diapers.” Or buying books on Amazon with titles like “Parenting.” And, Flickr could report to the system that you wrote “our new baby.” Oh, and it could watch everything you type on your blog.

Couldn’t the system know that you are likely a new parent? Couldn’t it bring up new kinds of advertising targeted at a new parent?

When I ran a camera store we sold diapers in our store. Why? So that we could get new parents into the store. Turns out that new parents buy a TON of camera gear.

My mind is racing from what you could do with this kind of data. I’m sitting with Buzz Bruggeman, CEO of ActiveWords. I bet that even ActiveWords could make use of such attention data.

Now I’m starting to get scared by this kind of world.

Comments

  1. ac says:

    Michael’s right. We are already way past the ad model. I and many others have learned to avoid ads like plague, I only click them to show support for couple sites, not to purchase what is behind the ad.

    There are much better models to gain the attention of people like me, that is, to not show any ads at all, but to use the information to prioritize the information in queries I do such that it most likely brings what I am looking for, reducing the time wasted searching for a product and displaying related items Amazon style.

    When I am in shopping mood I actually go to one of two places, a shop I know with huge catalogue or a price comparison site. There were recently some study showing people increasingly become more “immune” to ads. My self study shows I am totally immune to web/tv/radio ads, but very (a surprise to me even!) receiving of personally conveyed ads. Before studying this I thought that I weren’t making purchase decisions based on mouth to mouth recommendations, since those over half of the time aren’t based on proper research and facts. I am now trying to be more careful about listening to direct recommendations now that I know that I tend to purchase very expensive stuff just based on that without further research.

    In web the best model is to differentiate query contexts. Make people know and go a shopping search engine that truly gives what people want, not what companies pay the search company push. Example: Imagine if Google was split to Shoople, Serple (services) and so on, such that they were exclusive of each other – OR that Google could know what you really want. That would be so awesome. Googling would bring anything BUT shops and services, since those have dedicated search contexts. Less time spent on pages trying to game Google and more time spent on reading blog recommendations for example and then using dedicated service/product searches to actually find things.

    The current model is that went I have shopping mood I go to just few places which really know what I want and not try to push everything from everyone (Google search). This results my money going to just couple places instead of the one which might be providing either better service or value. Ad model thus doesn’t work.

  2. ac says:

    Michael’s right. We are already way past the ad model. I and many others have learned to avoid ads like plague, I only click them to show support for couple sites, not to purchase what is behind the ad.

    There are much better models to gain the attention of people like me, that is, to not show any ads at all, but to use the information to prioritize the information in queries I do such that it most likely brings what I am looking for, reducing the time wasted searching for a product and displaying related items Amazon style.

    When I am in shopping mood I actually go to one of two places, a shop I know with huge catalogue or a price comparison site. There were recently some study showing people increasingly become more “immune” to ads. My self study shows I am totally immune to web/tv/radio ads, but very (a surprise to me even!) receiving of personally conveyed ads. Before studying this I thought that I weren’t making purchase decisions based on mouth to mouth recommendations, since those over half of the time aren’t based on proper research and facts. I am now trying to be more careful about listening to direct recommendations now that I know that I tend to purchase very expensive stuff just based on that without further research.

    In web the best model is to differentiate query contexts. Make people know and go a shopping search engine that truly gives what people want, not what companies pay the search company push. Example: Imagine if Google was split to Shoople, Serple (services) and so on, such that they were exclusive of each other – OR that Google could know what you really want. That would be so awesome. Googling would bring anything BUT shops and services, since those have dedicated search contexts. Less time spent on pages trying to game Google and more time spent on reading blog recommendations for example and then using dedicated service/product searches to actually find things.

    The current model is that went I have shopping mood I go to just few places which really know what I want and not try to push everything from everyone (Google search). This results my money going to just couple places instead of the one which might be providing either better service or value. Ad model thus doesn’t work.

  3. Christopher Coulter says:

    Umm Hailstorm Part Duex.

  4. Christopher Coulter says:

    Umm Hailstorm Part Duex.

  5. Bob Walsh says:

    Scoble sees the good side of a world where your attention is a commodity, but what about the bad side?

    At what point does the commodization of attention become not a convenience but a box that defines who you are?

    I hope Scoble and others enamored with this brave new technology rent Jurassic Park next weekend: not everything goes the way you expect when it comes to technology.

  6. Bob Walsh says:

    Scoble sees the good side of a world where your attention is a commodity, but what about the bad side?

    At what point does the commodization of attention become not a convenience but a box that defines who you are?

    I hope Scoble and others enamored with this brave new technology rent Jurassic Park next weekend: not everything goes the way you expect when it comes to technology.

  7. [...] Use the word “sucks” in a headline and it seems you’ll be more likely to get on Memeorandum. Dang. It’s weird. I think that my post on attention that I wrote the other night is far more important for the industry to read and think about than any of the posts I wrote that use the word “sucks” in the headline. But that didn’t make it to Memeorandum cause it didn’t capture the attention of enough bloggers. [...]

  8. [...] I have been involved in meta data and search for too long of a time.  Recently I’m getting excited again.  Steve Gillmor has been very active in AttentionTrust.org a group that he cofounded.  Also Robert Scoble wrote a great piece about it last week.  [...]

  9. [...] First Steve Gillmor hoping for a big announcement from Microsoft – Could it be that Microsoft is paying attention? On Tuesday, Bill Gates and Ray Ozzie will likely shake up the industry with details of their rapid move toward the attention economy. The key to this reboot is the understanding that page rank, and the fundamental search methodology of people looking for information, is about to be flipped on its head to a new model where the information is provided gestures of intention that allow it to target the user. The key is the same fundamental that drives RSS: the invitation on the part of the user to address information inward Also Scoble has a sort of now-I-get-it post – here’s the new Silicon Valley business plan. You build a service. Add a Buzz Gadget (Google/MSN/Yahoo are working on more to come). Add a Monetization Gadget (Google calls that their Web Advertising Platform — MSN and Yahoo are working on their own). Mix and mash and we have a business [...]

  10. [...] Microsoft の Robert Scoble は先週末にやたらと多量の記事を Scobleizer Blog にポストした。Blog Business Summit でハイになっていたのかもしれない。彼はその中でも Silicon Valley got my attention: the future of Web businesses という記事に着目して欲しかったようだ。 ところが実際には、RSS usability sucks という記事の方が tech.memeorandum のトップを飾った。こちらの記事はいろいろ反響を読んだ様子で、日本でも Polar Bear Blog で取り上げられている。 Scoble はこのことに不満な様子で、今日になって Say something sucks to get on Memeorandum という記事をポストしている。このタイトルを日本語に訳すと「memeorandum に取り上げて欲しければ何でもいいから suck と言え」とでもなるだろうか。その後 memeorandum は Web Business の方も載せたようだが、現時点でのトップは相変わらず RSS Sucks の方である。まあ彼自身 BBS では「人目を引くタイトルをつけろ」と講演していたので、それを自ら実証したのかも、とは言っている。 [...]

  11. Julian Bond says:

    Things about Ads I’d like. (None of this is new)

    - As a publisher, more control over what ads appear on my site. Perhaps a pair of love, ban buttons on ads.

    - As a customer, an RSS feed of Ads directly targeted at me or my business sector. Let me read stuff in my own time that I might actually be interested in. And you can work out what I’m interested in by what I click through. As a business, think of it as another form of clipping service. “Who’s advertising in my market niche?”

    And a note. In order to make attention work and aggregate attention across multiple sites, we’re going to need much better identity services and much more personal control of our own privacy. Time to talk to Kim Cameron.

  12. Julian Bond says:

    Things about Ads I’d like. (None of this is new)

    - As a publisher, more control over what ads appear on my site. Perhaps a pair of love, ban buttons on ads.

    - As a customer, an RSS feed of Ads directly targeted at me or my business sector. Let me read stuff in my own time that I might actually be interested in. And you can work out what I’m interested in by what I click through. As a business, think of it as another form of clipping service. “Who’s advertising in my market niche?”

    And a note. In order to make attention work and aggregate attention across multiple sites, we’re going to need much better identity services and much more personal control of our own privacy. Time to talk to Kim Cameron.

  13. alicia says:

    Aggregation of attention data is both useful and scary. A friend of mine sent me the ACLU’s scare video (flash) relating to privacy concerns last week. They’re especially concerned about advertisers sharing data with the government. It reminded me also of the FBI’s effort to use the Patriot Act get libraries to reveal lending histories without supoenas. I’m glad to see smart people like Steve dealing with ways to put limits on the sharing of data without either prohibiting it or opening the floodgates.

  14. alicia says:

    Aggregation of attention data is both useful and scary. A friend of mine sent me the ACLU’s scare video (flash) relating to privacy concerns last week. They’re especially concerned about advertisers sharing data with the government. It reminded me also of the FBI’s effort to use the Patriot Act get libraries to reveal lending histories without supoenas. I’m glad to see smart people like Steve dealing with ways to put limits on the sharing of data without either prohibiting it or opening the floodgates.

  15. [...] @*/ Total Discussions:  Total Tags: 2 2 by 1 people 0 I don’t think Scobel really gets it… by gregbd on 10/31/2005 7:16 PM (report abuse) Listening to Steve Gilmor it seems to makesense but then when you listen to others attempt to explain it, the water gets dar and murky including Scobels comments. If it becomes what Scobel described no consumer would want to be a part of it… Email this | Reply function DoComment() { if( document.getElementById(“ctitle”).value == “” && document.getElementById(“comments”).value == “”) return false; document.forms[0].action = “http://www.shadows.com/PostBackHelper.aspx”; document.forms[0].method = “POST”; document.getElementById(“__VIEWSTATE”).value=”"; document.getElementById(“redirectURL”).value = document.location; document.getElementById(“ShadowAction”).value = “Comment”; document.getElementById(“uri”).value = “http://www.shadows.com/comment/8be047ff-3201-4e4c-a68b-99f981f0e182/” return true; } Comment Title: [...]

  16. dahowlett says:

    Has it occurred to anyone here that the privacy argument was bound to surface and so create a contrarian discussion that actually supports the MSFT ethos of lock-in? I’ll bet it’s not lost on C-types at Redmond. But…the very prospect of turning the web into a direct 121 marketing machine doesn’t hold long term water.

    There are inumerable complexities involved that require huge amounts of engineering and integration. Just how does MSFT propose to handle that? Oh yes, I just seen they plan to make integration their next big play. With what and to what I ask?

  17. Has it occurred to anyone here that the privacy argument was bound to surface and so create a contrarian discussion that actually supports the MSFT ethos of lock-in? I’ll bet it’s not lost on C-types at Redmond. But…the very prospect of turning the web into a direct 121 marketing machine doesn’t hold long term water.

    There are inumerable complexities involved that require huge amounts of engineering and integration. Just how does MSFT propose to handle that? Oh yes, I just seen they plan to make integration their next big play. With what and to what I ask?

  18. vanderwal says:

    Excellent post! I have been speaking on and around this topic the past couple years as part of the Personal InfoCloud work I have been doing. I finally got to present outside of the U.S.A., in Europe. The privacy questions come flying very quickly (one of two reasons I really wanted to present and get feed back outside the States, the other was feedback on the designing and developing across devices and platforms piece as Europe is ahead with broadband and mobile use and their developers are see the problems and are looking for solutions).

    There are two parts to the privacy of attention that come into play.

    One (Nick in comment 10 hit it on the head) – Who owns an manages the information. Many people believe they should own their Amazon records and so to be able to shop that information around to others. Similar to airline reward programs (you build up *status* with one airline but their service turns horrible, you want to sample other airline offerings, you want to take your flight history with you and get similar service so you can truly compare and be a well informed consumer – it is in the company’s interest to do this also as it will lead to a happy customer). In the business world this is called CMI (Consumer Managed Information).

    Two – Privacy of the information. Who do we trust with access to the information. Some people trust Google (Yahoo, MSN, Amazon, etc.) with all their information, while others want to parse out who has access to what and how much information. You may not want everybody in your “trusted” network to know where you are (buying holiday presents, lets say).

  19. vanderwal says:

    Excellent post! I have been speaking on and around this topic the past couple years as part of the Personal InfoCloud work I have been doing. I finally got to present outside of the U.S.A., in Europe. The privacy questions come flying very quickly (one of two reasons I really wanted to present and get feed back outside the States, the other was feedback on the designing and developing across devices and platforms piece as Europe is ahead with broadband and mobile use and their developers are see the problems and are looking for solutions).

    There are two parts to the privacy of attention that come into play.

    One (Nick in comment 10 hit it on the head) – Who owns an manages the information. Many people believe they should own their Amazon records and so to be able to shop that information around to others. Similar to airline reward programs (you build up *status* with one airline but their service turns horrible, you want to sample other airline offerings, you want to take your flight history with you and get similar service so you can truly compare and be a well informed consumer – it is in the company’s interest to do this also as it will lead to a happy customer). In the business world this is called CMI (Consumer Managed Information).

    Two – Privacy of the information. Who do we trust with access to the information. Some people trust Google (Yahoo, MSN, Amazon, etc.) with all their information, while others want to parse out who has access to what and how much information. You may not want everybody in your “trusted” network to know where you are (buying holiday presents, lets say).

  20. Tracy Coyle says:

    Back in 2001 I held an auction to sell information about my likes and preferences. It became It’s My Profile…a C2B dotcom that allowed consumers to keep control of their information(and profit from it) yet still give advertisers much deeper information about potential customers. My timing stunk as we were looking for funding in the summer of 2001. The business was shuttered in 2002 but the plan is so compelling that others keep ‘inventing’ the idea. I do not take credit for the initial idea, that was Seth Godin – who liked our implementation – back in 97.

    The information has value, great value, but privacy and ownership have to be addressed or any attempt by corporations to gather and profit without the consumer is doomed…DOOMED!

  21. Tracy Coyle says:

    Back in 2001 I held an auction to sell information about my likes and preferences. It became It’s My Profile…a C2B dotcom that allowed consumers to keep control of their information(and profit from it) yet still give advertisers much deeper information about potential customers. My timing stunk as we were looking for funding in the summer of 2001. The business was shuttered in 2002 but the plan is so compelling that others keep ‘inventing’ the idea. I do not take credit for the initial idea, that was Seth Godin – who liked our implementation – back in 97.

    The information has value, great value, but privacy and ownership have to be addressed or any attempt by corporations to gather and profit without the consumer is doomed…DOOMED!

  22. Dr. B says:

    interesting that Broadvision (www.broadvision.com) initiated a very similar project to what you described here waaay back in 1997 called THE ANGLE. Wonder what ever became of that… hmmm, wait I know… nothing because PRIVACY issues strapped the project to the desk and funding dried up because at that time advertisers just did not see the light.

  23. Dr. B says:

    interesting that Broadvision (www.broadvision.com) initiated a very similar project to what you described here waaay back in 1997 called THE ANGLE. Wonder what ever became of that… hmmm, wait I know… nothing because PRIVACY issues strapped the project to the desk and funding dried up because at that time advertisers just did not see the light.

  24. The revolution here is the USER IN CONTROLL! (www.attentiontrust.org)

    I can see a world where consumers have the leverage to say to marketers, if you want to do business with ME the requirement is to USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTION DATA. My attention is scarce I don’t time to work with marketers who don’t respect my wishes.

    You want to serve me ads? Fine, but stop using your inaccuate targeting systems that don’t work – USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTIONS. (No more GoDaddy and Earthlink ads please. I have heard them each over 200 times. I have no use for Earthlink and I’m already a GoDaddy customer. PLEASE STOP!!!!)

    You want to personalize your service to me? Fine, but stop using your inaccurate personalization systems based on your inaccurate siloed view of my data they don’t work – USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTIONS.

    Otherwise I refuse to view your ads and/or do business with you.

    Privacy is a 1.0 problem…;-)

  25. The revolution here is the USER IN CONTROLL! (www.attentiontrust.org)

    I can see a world where consumers have the leverage to say to marketers, if you want to do business with ME the requirement is to USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTION DATA. My attention is scarce I don’t time to work with marketers who don’t respect my wishes.

    You want to serve me ads? Fine, but stop using your inaccuate targeting systems that don’t work – USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTIONS. (No more GoDaddy and Earthlink ads please. I have heard them each over 200 times. I have no use for Earthlink and I’m already a GoDaddy customer. PLEASE STOP!!!!)

    You want to personalize your service to me? Fine, but stop using your inaccurate personalization systems based on your inaccurate siloed view of my data they don’t work – USE MY ATTENTION/ INTENTIONS.

    Otherwise I refuse to view your ads and/or do business with you.

    Privacy is a 1.0 problem…;-)

  26. Information Abundance, Attention Scarcity

    VC Fred Wilson posits that, while scarcity leads to value in the analog world, it is abundance that leads to value in the digital world.

    I’d like to take that one step further. In the digital world, it is not digital goods that are scarce. Thanks t…

  27. [...] You can start to find discussions about this across the blogosphere.  For example compare Robert Scoble’s post here about the use of attention data to create more and more advertising value for intermediaries with this Blogation post here, which argues that Google is keeping increasing amounts of information on its clients and advertisers alike to further its profit at expense of everyone else involved. [...]

  28. HI to everyone!!

    Did this captured your attention? Good!! =)

    My question is:

    WHAT DO WE WANT FOR THE FUTURE?

    The desapearing of conventional advertising and a system that control all of our consuming moves = (END OF PRIVACY)

    OR

    Guerrila Marketing (creative Marketing that capture EVERYONE’S attention that creates experiences and a true proximity relation between brands and the final consumer), altough we will constantly watch and see brands in every corner.

    PERHAPS SOME OF YOU GUYS HAVE A DIFFERENT AND ANOTHER VISION ABOUT IT

    My best regards,
    João Dias 24 years old

  29. HI to everyone!!

    Did this captured your attention? Good!! =)

    My question is:

    WHAT DO WE WANT FOR THE FUTURE?

    The desapearing of conventional advertising and a system that control all of our consuming moves = (END OF PRIVACY)

    OR

    Guerrila Marketing (creative Marketing that capture EVERYONE’S attention that creates experiences and a true proximity relation between brands and the final consumer), altough we will constantly watch and see brands in every corner.

    PERHAPS SOME OF YOU GUYS HAVE A DIFFERENT AND ANOTHER VISION ABOUT IT

    My best regards,
    João Dias 24 years old