Was Origami overhyped?

I don't think it was really overhyped, it's just that the viral site idea should heve been used for something bigger...

We tend to believe that that kind of effort is usually saved for really splashy stuff, not just an UMPC... ;)

That said, I want the Haiku device Otto showed in your Channel 9 video *now*... 8)

i think it was overhyped in that the viral marketing did just that. with today's media outlets you can get a rumor out to the masses faster than ever before.

it worked. however, i dont think it was negative advertising (overhyped). look at all the media sources covering the "project" now. everyone from twit to msnbc...

Was it overhype?

No, in the sense that it brilliantly attracted attention from all aspects of media.

Yes, in that the device appears, essentially, useless.

To riff on someone else's meme, it's like the bastardized child of a PDA and TabletPC, adding new disadvantages and removing many of the advantages from each.

The hype would have been well worth it if the product itself weren't so totally underwhelming.

I look forward to using an affordable and usable third or generation model in about 4 years time...

Overhyped? Yep. I wonder who might have done that?

http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/02/23/what...
http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/03/02/oh-o...
http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/2006/03/06/seei...

Something can only be overhyped if it is a bad product. The more hype a product has, the more people know about it. If you ask the average person on the street (and this product is aimed at average folks from what I can tell) what a UMPC is, the answer you'll get is "what?" Keep in mind this statement does not apply to streets in the valley :P And in that sense, was this product really overhyped? Maybe it got hype in the wrong places.

The mistake that I see here is that everything was revealed before the official reveal. We knew everything down to actual specs, production shots, first impressions, etc. all before the reveal was supposed to happen. That's not the same as the Xbox 360 viral marketing campaign. I don't think most viral marketing campaigns can be successful in a week or two (if that was even the intention), but it definitely doesn't work if the big unveiling is spoiled.

Imagine a Steve Jobs presentation about a new iPod that has a video of it on the web, pictures taken by journalists, impressions/reviews already published. The problem is not the hype then; it's that nobody cares when it is actually revealed.

it was positioned as a revolutionary new idea, a completely new thing.

This is silly, it's nothing of the sort. The Oragami spec, (let's be honest, MS isn't making anything but yet another Windows SKU and a spec), is simply the logical evolution of portable computing. It's smart, well thought out, and has a number of markets where it will do well. But it's hardly new or revolutionary.

Had it been positioned correctly, and the viral marketing stupidity idea trashed, then you would have had a really successful product launch. Instead, MS convinced itself again, and incorrectly, that they were breaking new ground.

>as a revolutionary new idea, a completely new thing.

Hmmm. I don't remember seeing any other mainstream OS-based product like it. So, I think it DOES hold up to the "new idea" lens.

Were you one of the guys who said the iPod wasn't new or revolutionary? Got it.

Ouch pimp slap by robert ;) Seriously though, this is a Nokia 770 that runs windows but cost 2 - 3 more. What I don't understand is why go with a gimped system like this when you can get a Lenovo X41 tablet for just a little bit more money.

"Were you one of the guys who said the iPod wasn’t new or revolutionary? Got it."

It wasn't. It was a refinement of an idea. That's what Origami is lacking. It's just a Tablet PC in a smaller package.

"The hype got too big too fast."

??? That is what hype does. It gets big, and it goes fast. Failing to deliver is why the online collective burped out a big 'meh'.

I was expecting mini-tablet and I got mini-tablet. So I am not disappointed at all with the device, but very disappointed with the television coverage:

At the scene journalist: So this is Origami the much overhyped new Microsoft product to take on Apple.
desk journalist: How much?
At the scene journalist: $599 to $999 available later this year.
desk journalist: Where is the keyboard?
At the scene journalist: you are going to buy an external USB keyboard or one with bluetooth enabled
desk journalist: It's shit, I LIKE MY LAPTOP!!!
At the scene journalist: I LIKE MY LAPTOP TOO, LAPTOPS ARE COOL!!!
desk journalist: BAD MICRO$OFT, Laptops rule!

> And, with that, this will be my last Origami post
> until I get my hands on a production unit.

And when will that be?

I didn't think it was overhyped. Start.com was overhyped, I think there's much more to the Origami story.

"I don’t remember seeing any other mainstream OS-based product like it."

Sony U50/U70, OQO, etc. You probably don't consider Linux "mainstream," but if it's being sold at Walmart, I do...so I would also include the Nokia 770.

I got a cool free tiki background for my laptop off that Origami site thanks, now what is this Origami thing? I must have missed the buzz/zip/bang session as most of us do when we are really busy eh?

Will watch channel9 from my exersize bike in the morning...thanks.

A better fit might be if you'd say it was "improperly hyped".

(1) Just about any time Apple has had this kind of hype, and rumors about products - they actually deliver something you can have in your hands within days or weeks. The average consumer can't do that with this spec.

(2) While there is nothing quite like this in the market, it still is eveolutionary, not revolutionary.

(3) Going along with point 32 is the fact is runs an OS that is close to 5 years and 2 support (bug/security) packs old. Now, if this was running Vista you might have something.

(4) Once the hype machine ramped up, others - possibly even some from Microsoft - started talking in terms of competitor's products. You know - that oft-rumored iPod killer. For once IMO, you weren't part of that Robert. Kudos.

There's alot of positives about Origami. And even about the rollout process.

For the first time in years, Microsoft actually was not extremely premature in their timing. (I'm not sure about why they spoke of a battery charge in terms of a day but actually delivered only 3 hours, using once again that "next year" excuse. But that really is quibbling.)

And the hype, however improperly placed, WAS effective. But yes, improperly placed.

Save it for Vista. And make it timely too.

I'm thinking about it's similarity to a Newton and a PSP.

Here are the questions that come to mind:

1. How will UMPC succeed when the Newton didn't?
2. How will UMPC substantially differentiate itself from the PSP?

I don't remember anyone whinging about how old the OS was when Apple shipped the G4. There is plenty to rail about Origami if that's your agenda. Arguing that it's this or that based upon the age of its operating system is intellectually lazy.

One thing the hype leads me to believe here: there's latent demand for a better device.

If no one wants a device that fits somewhere between the limited UX of a phone/pda and the cumbersome reality of a full-fledged pc, then why oh why was anyone interested in the first place?

My conclusion is that the hype fed the inherent interest in the core concept. The execution and equally simmering (boiling over) Microsoft hatred causes a massive backlash when the device doesn't closely align with expectations.

If the device were sleeker and more sexy looking, if it had all-day battery power, if it cost

The problem is not with the hype Robert, the problem is with the product. Even without the hype the product is still meh....

Now what is the product? Nothing... there is no spec...

Will it have a USB port.... it depends...
Will it have a camera...... it depends...


And what did MS do for the whole thing with its software prowess ? Port tablet PC edition? Where is the innovation?

I didn't hear about a single innovation from anyone yet - not MS, not intel and not even the manufacturers....

What should we be excited about?

I agree 1st gen products will have its flaws. But look at the 1st gen iPod... not a great product, but there were things that it changed.


Origami is not a product, Origami felt more like an idea. More like the space elevators I keep reading about :)

And please the name dampens the spirit too. Ultra Portable edition PC or what? Names like Ultra seem so cheesy these days... and boring....

Even Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, held an Origami yesterday when opening the CeBIT fair:
http://www.spiegel.de/img/0,1020,593274,00.jpg

Tom -

1. The Newton pre-dates ubiquitious wireless internet (it effectively/nearly pre-dates the mainstream internet). Take the connectivity out of the Origami equation and obviously it's a non-starter.

I can think of a number of other distinguishing factors, I'm not sure it's even a useful discussion given the first point. It's like asking why Linux has a shot at mainstream desktop viability today versus 10 years ago--it's almost silly given the number of things that have shifted massively during the interim.

2. I think this is a more german question. The PSP is looking like a strong media device, but it's not even the most domininant device in its niche right now according to some (Nintendo DS is presently outselling it, but it's close).

I see the big difference being the PSP is a dedicated gaming device tha can also do media pretty well. Origami seems more like a dedicated PC that can also do media pretty well.

Origami is more like a PC than a gaming device. I could see this being the only PC some college/h.s. students use.

But the PSP is the type of device I look at most readily and think, this is what will cannibalize a lot of Origami's long-term potential.

I have so much "useless" tech hardware that I've yet to recycle, and don't wish to add another fad to the pile.

Why should we buy this, and not wait for Vista and upcoming improvements/upgrades?

There are enough edge-cases already contributing to the land-fills. ;)

There are perfectly fine reasons why Mr. Scoble got invited to sit in a hot tub in Switzerland and party with a French model in Paris, because the dude is a gnarly salesman (using a California parlance); put it another way, Willy Loman he ain't.

Overhyped? Nah. How can you overhype a commercial product that has a multimillion-dollar financial stake? Tech nerds like us probably over-wonked it, but seriously, in this cutthroat business environment, you cannot be a coy boy.

Putting aside the haiku-like promo theme, "Origami" actually stands for "Oy, You Got Me!"

I think the comparisons to the Nokia 770 are pretty appropriate - the difference being the quality of the software available for each. Frankly the Nokia software is horrible IMO. The device itself with better software (which will happen - Nokia is listening to early adopter feedback I'm sure) will be a strong competitor to the UMPC - especially given the price delta.

PSP is another matter. It does not scale to the same breadth of audience that UMPC and the Nokia have the potential to because it is a gaming system first and everything else second. Also, it's from Sony which, given recent history, is a death sentence in terms of finding mass appeal beyond the niche of game playing media consumers. That company is so locked into their own proprietary peripheral system that many people simply will not play (or pay). Priced Memory Sticks lately? Remember the Clie? I have learned after being burned repeatedly by Sony that buying anything from that is a serious gamble and an expensive proposition.

I like how you blame Dustin when just the other day you intimated that Origami was something truly amazing...so amazing in fact that you'd for once eschew the Microsoft freebies you are undoubtably inundated with and purchase one with your own money! Now you're saying you won't post anything else until you get your hands on a production unit?

Why anyone takes what you say seriously is beyond me. Getting paid to blow smoke up everyone's ass does not make a worthy information source.

I have a few technology lusts and this seems to be in the middle of them..

An HTC phone that has all the goodies, including a hard drive and ability to run a power point presentation.

A tablet pc for whiteboard manipulation and entertainment views. A laptop is not good for the couch.

I can see this device in the living room, if it had better graphics and heavier strength. (high remote control functionality)

I think origami is trying to take from the lower and upper scales yet with no redeeming value in and of itself. I think Microsoft should have worked on making the smartphones more like the UPC and support the tablet pc better rather than canibalizing both ends of the product line.

If I was expecting the Haiku prototype, yeah, I'd be disappointed at the hype, but it was exactly what I was expecting with a perfectly reasonable price point.
I will say that judging from some comments, there hasn't been enough hype that this is a full-blown version of Windows running on these machines. When people ask stuff like, "Yeah, but can I make a phone call with it," or "But can it do GPS," I think that the questions should not even need to be asked because it's a true PC with wi-fi and USB.

"Hmmm. I don’t remember seeing any other mainstream OS-based product like it. So, I think it DOES hold up to the “new idea” lens."

Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!

overhyped? sure. doesnt make it a bad thing though. there is clearly an enourmous interest in an "it" device that actually delivers what consumers want. personally i feel this is rushed to beat apple to the market. microsoft needs to stop worrying about what apple and others are doing, and for once try to get something right the first time. as usual the execution is poor at best.
i'm sure otto and all of the other people who worked on this put all their efforts, sweat and tears into it, but unfortunately it still comes across as half assed. if you set a spec for a product like this, dont release it until you can reach that spec.
i'm still excited by the platform, the future looks bright for it, i just wish today was the future, and a haiku device is ready for pre order.

As far as I am concerned this seems more like an idea than a product.
The stuff that interests me are all guaranteed for later iterations...

OK, now I'm bloody *mad*.

The countless eejits chattering around the web have crossed the line once too often. It's time to set them straight, shove them back from the line, and show them for the eejits they are!

If I read one more time that a UMPC is "just an overpriced Nokia 770," I will explode!

Anyone who *has* a 770 can tell you straight: The UMPC is *not* a Nokia 770 in any way, shape, or form.

The 770's Opera browser mysteriously goes Poof! and suddenly disappears while browsing. I don't think this will happen with a UMPC.

A site such as Palm Addict takes *over two minutes* to load on a 770. I think it will be a few seconds on a UMPC.

The 770 cannot display embedded video on sites such as Google Video or YouTube. A UMPC can.

The 770 cannot play DiVX/Xvid AVI or QuickTime video. A UMPC will.

The 770 has no browser plug in for FURL. No problem for a UMPC.

Forget word processing on a 770. Its Notes program chokes on as little as 10K of text. And the one free real WP program that's available is hardly useable because the contortions someone has to go through to have a reliable working keyboard for WP just aren't worth going through. A UMPC can use any USB or Bluetooth keyboard easily, and there are tons of WP programs available -- not just *one*.

Yesterday the 770 I've been using for several months had to be rebooted *six times* because of its weak CPU and pathetic RAM. In my first hour of using it this morning I had a crash and reboot. This is its *typical day*. Crash, reboot, crash, reboot. I had a Toshiba GENIO Pocket PC -- something infamous for its PPC 2002 OS instability. The 770 is a step *down* from that. Most of you don't want to know what I call my 770. It is filthy and obscene. *Yet deserved!*

The 770 has a 200MHz CPU with 64MB of RAM. A UMPC will have a 900MHz-1+GHz CPU and most will have half a gig of RAM. If you are *still* dumb enough to think a UMPC is just a larger 770, take your desktop machine and put it in your closet. Replace it with a desktop PC that shares the specs of the 770. Then tell me how the second desktop is just like your original one -- only cheaper!

I will be *glad* to exchange the *dysfunctionality* of a 770 for a UMPC with *real* usefulness, *speed*, *compatibility* with all web pages, and the ability to hook up any peripheral.

You eejits harping about the 770 don't know what the hell you're talking about. So shut up! shut up! shut up!

And as for UMPC being "overhyped" -- baloney. It takes being traumatized by something like the 770 before you can *appreciate* a UMPC. What's that you say? -- it's just another kind of Sony VAIO U *at less than half the price*? Just what I want! Thank you, Intel and Microsoft!!

Anon: thank you for the compliment. I hyped this up all by myself. Yes, you heard it right folks. Scoble got more than 400 news articles published about the Origami all by himself! Check this out: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&am...

Heheh.

Seriously. Did my blog overhype things here? If anything my blog was trying to get people to calm down.

"If I read one more time that a UMPC is “just an overpriced Nokia 770,” I will explode!"

Ummm, you just did.

"You eejits harping about the 770 don’t know what the hell you’re talking about. So shut up! shut up! shut up!"

You're the EEJIT who bought something you obviously didn't want.

Robert, try picking your fights with someone who is sillier than you.

Oragami is a logical extension of portable computing. It's a smaller tablet. That's all. Sorry to burst your bubble. It's a smaller tablet. What's revolutionary about it? I'm not saying it's a bad idea, but it's not like you guys just created the concept. You're years late to that party, get over it.

The iPod wasn't revolutionary at all. It was just an MP3 player with better software and decent design. Apple was hardly first there at all. Now, with the Dock Connector, and the hardware APIs that they have for that, and the advantages it gives them, they definitely "thought different" in that space. But the dock connector as such was hardly new either. Just not used in the music player space.

If Apple did anything even close to revolutionary, it is the implementation of iTunes and the iPod, and how well - executed they are, to BallmerGates dismay.

They didn't create the concept, they just did it, and still do it better than everyone else, including MS and it's 24523452 ways to DRM WM files.

Sucks to be MS.

For all my mobile browsing needs, the Nintendo DS with Opera sounds like the most affordable and practical solution out there. Hyuck.

"Seriously. Did my blog overhype things here? If anything my blog was trying to get people to calm down. "

2/23

I do know that Origami is the code-name for a new kind of device. Oh, heck, here come the NDA police, gotta go!

I know one team that’s shipping something cool next week that you haven’t yet heard about. We’ll see if it leaks.

2/26

My own Origamisms started back last Spring when I visited Otto Berkes in his office and saw that he was tinkering with dozens of portable devices. Otto was one of the four guys, I hear, who started the Xbox team, but now was working in building 32, which is where the Tablet PC team was hanging out. He showed me some wood prototypes that excited me. They were small, would open up new usage models (I want to buy one for my son, for instance, to take to school to take notes on) and were fairly low cost.

Let’s get back together on March 2 after the announcement and see what you think.

We’ll talk more on March 2.

2/27


[THE RETRENCHMENT BEGINS; BLAME THE TEAM FOR HYPE]

What’s the danger of not letting your internal bloggers know about your product release plans? They might not be able to help keep your announcements in proper perspective.

[THEN A MISSTEP...]

Looking at the target market, I’d say that if they don’t have the channel stuffed with a ton by May that they’ll be missing a big opportunity (the back to school market, which arrives in June/July).

[Unless you want us to believe you thought it was already a failure... At this time you were expecting massive sales for back to school.]

[THEN AN ADMISSION OF HYPE...]

this was a tease to get people to visit the Microsoft booth at CeBit.



That's just the first 3 of 10 significant Origami posts. So, yeah, you are guilty of hyping it.

The first devices ship in April.

All of these posts were truthful.

But, thanks for the compliment, once again.

By the way, I'll outline the anatomy of the hype machine that I posted above:

1. First post is PURE HYPE. The "I've got something to say but I'm not going to say it" post is pure vapor and hype.

2. Based on a WOODEN model from a year ago, Scoble is excited, sees new opportunity, and will buy one. They are low cost (I would hope a piece of wood is low cost!).

MORE IMPORTANTLY, he pumps the blog world! He knows his first post and this one will get lots of links and comments. He adds links to the top listed blogs on all of the silly "meme-trackers" that he no admits are just superficial noise and hype ... which guess what? It magnifies the impact on these "meme-trackers."

Moreover, he's misinformed and keeps claiming we'll find out more and more the next week when really we don't ... at least not from MS.

3. He blames the product teams for not telling bloggers (and presumably him most importantly) that they're wrong.

Further, in this post he makes several mistakes -- (1) getting too excited and acting as if this will be a big seller over the school buying season (It was around March when you came up with the great we-can-build-an-iPod-killer-in-less-than-3-months-if-we-hire-Elton-John strategy too wasn't it, Scobles?) and (2) concedes that the entire announcement and related posts are hype for Cebit, a declining gadget conference in Germany.

4. At this point, he already knows he's gone too far. The best thing would have been to say: I've already set expectations too high; I'm not posting until it's announced. But instead we get 6 more Origami posts (whether or not they claim to be anti-hype). You still kept posting on it and doing lame things like saying what it isn't, creating an aura around what it might be.

Steps 1-4 of a failed hype campaign. Well, Step 5 is necessary too: have an underwhelming product that has been discussed for years and is probably two years (at least one year) too soon.

"The first devices ship in April."

But you said "say that if they don’t have the channel stuffed with a ton by May"... Are you claiming a small Chinese manufacturer and 2 middling OEMs are going to HAVE A TON OF THEM IN THE CHANNEL BY MAY? Come on, don't make me laugh again!

"All of these posts were truthful."

Samsung says their device is $1100. That's low cost? What was the announcement on March 2? There are lots of half-truths and completely wrong statements in their Scoble.

"But, thanks for the compliment, once again."

If you take it as one, I pity you. As I was saying on 2/27, it would be better if you'd take the blame rather than being snarky.

>What was the announcement on March 2?

That was the Web site the Tablet PC team put up. They released a new video on that site that day.

>it would be better if you’d take the blame rather than being snarky.

I am here to take the blame every day. Thank you for noticing!

Here's Engadget's report on more: http://www.engadget.com/2006/03/09/hands-on-wit...

Why aren't you covering the new Office 12 UI released today at the CeBit? Now _there's_ something to hype about.

One look at Jensen Harris' blog is enough for me to not care about Writely/Google Office for the next five years.

And the war between Goebbels and the Scobleizer continues!

And by the way Goebbels I hope you're not anyway related to Joseph Goebbels!

For me, the question is not whether or not Scoble contributed to the hype. The question is: is Scoble genuinely excited about what he's seeing. The answer is clearly yes, and that's good enough for me. I don't read Scoble's blog because I'm looking for proper, rational analysis of an industry, I read Scoble's blog because he's a geek like the rest of us and he writes about the stuff that excites him.

Anyway, in my opinion, Origami is worthy of hype. The partners fit XP into a form factor this size with a touch screen for under $1000. Even if you don't consider it a technical achievement, it's clear that some group of people (including me) are going to find it very useful and, for those people, it's a big step in the right direction for mobile computing. Small-but-not-tiny, affordable, powerful computers.

I don't think it was overhyped but a real launch of something would be to say, "And it's available for sale tomorrow".

Hope you are getting some rest after what has probably been a very busy time for you.

Dave: unfortunately with our business model doing such an announcement is simply impossible. There's no way you can keep a handful of companies working together and keep stuff from leaking out.

It's definitely overhype because the released product (at least in it's first generation state) didn't match the hype and expectations.

The amount of hype should be proportional to the quality of the system. The system disappointed most. The hype was over the top.

Overhyped and then fail to deliver? As usual yup, add in Tablet PC, Xbox 360 (still not being delivered), Smartphone, Windows Mobile 5, PMC, SPOT, the late Mira, MP3 Music players and anything else quasi-hardwareish that Microsoft attempts to launch and burden (and eventually con) OEMs with.

keep stuff from leaking out

Ummm, your CEO was talking about “Haiku” eons ago, and several key Tablet bloggers had spilled enough around the edges, and it was ALL over the Asian press. OEM and Intel was yabbing this up. The viral mode only worked as bloggers are spoon-fed lazy twerps. This was predictable a mile away. Don't any Microsofties read Digitimes? Geeesh.

And oh, Dustin's timeline has major Mack-Truck-sized gaps, and he forgot my big mass press send right after the Tablet PC Partner Conference when I knew of it and my FOX News hit.

Leave it to Microsoft to create a really great idea and then hand it over to the beige box PC manufacturers with little to no vision to execute. Once again, I suspect Microsoft needs to step it up and create a really great device themselves if they want to take on Apple in this space. You just know Jobs will ship a white rounded tablet at some point and everyone will ooo and awe over it when it is really not much different. Design is key folks... Origami is a miss...

That's funny, Apple works with all kinds of companies, like suppliers and the like, and they don't seem to have much of a problem with things leaking out the way MS does.

Shawn, MS won't do it. Hardware is not something with the same kind of profit margin curve as software. Hardware costs may decrease somewhat over time, but not like software. Hardware has constant costs that are irreducible past a certain point, and that point is pretty high. Ask the Xbox division about how much profit they show.

But then they get caught by it. They can show these great prototypes, but they have no way to prevent the people ACTUALLY MAKING THEM from shipping crap. So when Robert says "we are releasing a new form factor tablet" he's lying, even though it's not deliberate, and he doesn't even mean to.

*Microsoft* ain't releasin' diddly outside of yet another one of 435245 Windows SKUs and a spec. They have to hope that the hardware OEMs don't cock it up, and you just know that will happen.

that's why there's no point in taking a MS hardware "announcement" seriously, since they literally have, outside of the OS, NO CONTROL WHATSOEVER over what the OEMs do.

"The iPod wasn’t revolutionary at all. It was just an MP3 player with better software and decent design. Apple was hardly first there at all.

If Apple did anything even close to revolutionary, it is the implementation of iTunes and the iPod, and how well - executed they are"

1. The iPod and its software are mediocre at best. You can get better players and software for cheaper. It's just a trendy product. Not great, really.

2. First few gens of the iPod were pricy, horribly over-sized and had major hardware failure issues.

3. UMPCs are a first gen device. Most of the major issues with the current models (bezel size, battery life, processing power) will be resolved in future generations. It is the natural evolution of hardware.

I can get 5-6 hours of battery life out of a laptop with a main and secondary battery. But I recall a time in which you could barely get an hour's worth of juice out of an overpriced laptop. Now look at how well laptops are doing.

Give the UMPC some time. Everyone loves to point the DOA finger at new MS products. If Apple had announced this though, I'm sure people would overlook its issues because it has an Apple logo on it. And looks matter more than usefulness (as the iPod has proved).

Me? I'm waiting for the second-gen UMPCs that will run Vista. These devices are awesome for students. I have a PPC but extensive note taking is not so great on it. I was considering getting a slate tablet but the decent ones are way too expensive. I would gladly pay $800 for a decent UMPC. Powerful enough to get my school work done and small enough to use comfortably just about anywhere.

I can't explain why people would want this device to be any smaller though. Shrinking it to pocket size would make using Windows and desktop apps a pain. I think their size is great. These devices cover the spectrum I've been looking for in a mobile PC. Now MS has everything covered. From PPCs to UMPCs to laptops to desktop replacement laptops. Something for everyone on the go.

Can't wait to see how these little guys evolve. When they start hitting 5-6 hours of battery life I will definately get one for myself. My mom could use one too now that I think about it.

Paul Harvey? Bobby you're dating yourself. I hope the marketing wonks at The Borg are a lot more hip with the kids than to reference Paul "and now the rest of the story" Harvey. ;)

I don't think it was overhyped, I don't like Microsoft, but I like Origami (or at least the Samsung version everyone is featuring), and I feel everyone is jumping on the 'it was overhyped' bandwagon just because it's trendy and nobody has the guts to give some points to Microsoft.

I don't even understand how you can say Microsoft overhyped it, Microsoft produced a marketing campaign spending the money it felt it deserved, the public (i.e. you) are the ones who took notice of this campaign, you have only yourself to blame if you let a marketing campaign get you too excited.

Next time Microsoft puts big money into releasing a product you will all say 'It will just be a flop like Origami', only seeing if it is a flop will be what keeps you just as interested.

Have fun consumers.

P.S. I'm don't agree that 3 hours battery life and desktop boot times are great, but oh look, my nano is scratched to death, despite almost never being out of a case, aren't we all glad that Apple (who I do like) make such perfect products!

Thanks to Goebbels for digging up the dates.

The first tease was on a Friday afternoon, as I recall, and I figured at the time that it was an attempt to keep the headline atop the aggregators over the weekend.

so someone was blaming us coz we fell for a marketing campaign?

well the way MS is performing you won't have to worry next time.

I thought there was an MS hardware, my mistake...

Ariel,

The vast majority of the portable music player market says you're wrong.

The auto companies making car kits for the iPod say your wrong.

The billionth song downloaded from iTunes say you're wrong.

You may not personally like the iPod, but your opinion is not in fact, fact. Indeed, show me another portable music player with a cohesive hardware API like the iPod and its Dock.

Why would anyone call this overhyped? I'd call it an extremely successful PR campaign.

The Scoblerizer asked "Was Origami overhyped? Yes. The hype got too big too fast. Who was responsible?"

You were, Robert. (that's a royal you) I first heard about it on your blog. I then read some hype from the usual tech journos who didn't know anything else either.

To be honest, I think a lot of people are still waiting for PRODUCT. Vapour is easy to overhype as there's no substance.

Ever occur to you why Apple keeps their mouth shut before a product is ready to ship?

Origami: Nice, but still very dear.

If they cost $500 the hype would be forgiven. Still I suppose give it three years, the old models will go for that.

Then look rather like the psp especially in black and share some of the same functionality, videos, net, music, games.

If they restrict what you can download they will fail, if they don't they will sell like hot cakes.
The psp restricts a lot of downloads. This could beat it on that.

If you can save everything you can save to a normal windows pc people will go wild. Movies, music, p0rn, games, work, comics on the go. In a smaller format that a laptop. Many people will be very happy.

But how comfortable will it be to use? Is it familar from using other devices? Is it easily broken? Is it waterproof? How heavy is it? Whats the battery life.

What I want to know is how come the hardware partners don't have any information about these units on their websites?

Why hype it so much when you can't find it to buy? I went to the UMPC site and you have to search to find out where one might be able to buy one. ASUS, Founder & Samsung look like the 3 who have UMPCs available, but when you go to their sites, one would think they would be sitting on their home pages, one click away from a purchase or at very least, a distributor who will gladly sell you one. But alas, ASUS doesn't even recognize UMPC as a product, Samsung shows regular laptops as their Ultra Mobile devices. Lesson learned: make sure the product is ready & available before the "hype hits the fan."

"Do you know how I can change your life?"

Puleezzzzzze. Windows '95 changed my life. Widnows 2000 changed my life.

Going from a 12" screen to a 7" screen does not change my life.

What is the hype going to be for the 6" screen?

Or the 5" screen, or the 9" screen?

This was WAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY overhyped.

I've been following it from day one, and this is my take from it: The Origami is a PDA with real apps, not mini apps, and it runs on a 7" screen.

So, its a better PDA (again, this is the impression I've been given by the hype). It's not even manufactured my Microsoft!

If I already carry a PDA, how does a slightly better one change my life? Except for the possible exception that my company can now demand my services 24 hours a day for no additional pay because "I'm always connected," this doesn't really change my life, except in a BAD way.

At least today, I can claim that I dont' have access to a computer, so I can have some time with my kid.

PS:

It's sad too, because I LOVE Microsoft as a company. It produces for the most part, GREAT products.

My criticisms are for the HYPE, not the product. If you need a good PDA, and you don't already ahve one, THESE are the ones to get.

When I can get an Origami - spec device through Sprint, with EVDO, and a week's worth of standby time, able to go a day or more of constant PDA use without a charge, and a good 6 hours of talk time with at least the same screen size as my PPC-6601 with a better keyboard for $450, then I'll buy one on the spot.

Until then, no. What I've seen would be less functional than the PPC-6601, and cost 4 times more. Less functionality, more expensive. That's kind of the opposite of what I want.

Just about the only good use I can imagine for this device is surfing the web from your couch or from in bed, it could possibly also be good for something like inventory management or inspections but didn't tablets already fail at that?

The virtual keyboard thing sounds interesting but why in the heck isn't the device shaped in such a way that you can easily grip it in order to use the keyboard? Plus typing using a touch screen kind of sucks as there is no tactile feedback and for those people getting all excited about the Bluetooth laser projected keyboard you are aware that such a device has been around for quite some time aren't you? I could buy one for my Treo if I really wanted to.

MSFT's goal should be to underpromise and overdeliver every time out, in particular because it has so often done the reverse. Indeed, while MSFT execs lament the slowing adoption curve for legacy products, they helped create it by shipping wave after wave of marginal upgrades. Against that backdrop, imo the Origami launch was unsuccessful. It ended up way overhyping a product that in its current form could only end up underdelivering and by a significant margin. That the buzz could be created, shows that there are still a lot of folks who want MSFT to do SOMETHING (anything?) big, bold and successful and show that it's still capable of competing in this decade. But you don't get many kicks at that can, and this one unfortunately was squandered.

I have some suggestions for the UMPC class of device:

http://weblogs.asp.net/jtobler/archive/2006/03/...

Most important: Microsoft and hardware vendors, please deliver on the promise!

Why do so many people insist about blogging about something and then commenting here about doing so instead of just commenting here? Isn't that against some kind of blogging ethics?

If you're going to do that then just do a trackback to here instead.

Robert,

After I said that you and others were managing expectations and that signaled that the product was DOA.

You wrote:
"Larry: we’ll talk again later this week after I get my Channel 9 video up."

I still think the product is DOA, now your own people are saying the first iteration is going to be niche. For a company the size of Microsoft that seems to be a concession that it'll arrive still born.

Robert,

I'd love to hear you ask your readers the question: Is the licensing model that Microsoft uses for PC's relevant for the consumer products being introduced now?

It was not over-hyped. Over-hype, IMO, is when one or more companies behind the product push it on the masses more heavily than the people have interest in it. In the case of Origami, it was the intense interest of the masses that drove and encouraged more information to be shared. It's not hype if the public clamors for details and you simply give them to them.

Mrrh, I don't think the hype got too big- Think of the various things you can do with your PC, You can do anything from surfing the web- Watching movies, Playing games to buying your groceries. This UMPC seems to be a PC that you can carry around with you- Meaning it too will have these endless possibilities, Maybe i'm mistaken about what it really is- But so far from what i've read and seen, It's a Mobile Computer- With access to the internet in various places- And that in itself is something that deserves a shitload of hype. (pardon teh language. Xd)

At the very least it's the beginning of something much bigger than itself- You just wait and maybe when you see what this small UMPC has caused- Then you'll think it deserved the hype it got, Maybe even more. ^_^;

Wewt for it though- I'm going to sell a few things, Save a few bucks from my job- And get one of these. >:3 My teachers had a hard time getting me to pay attention in class before, Let's see how low my marks go when i've got the internet at my- Now mobile- Disposal.

Wewt Weewtt..

Err, Haha- As I always do- I'll apologize if my message offended any of the readers- And sorry if I seemed a little uninformed or- To be blunt, Stupid. Hey- I'm only sixteen, I'll have time to fix that.. Next year or so..

-David 'tux' Tucker


(one more 'wewt' for UMPCs, Can't wait to get one.)

Robert's blog obviviously has an educated following, I found the comments above interesting and useful. One thing that I've read many times this week however is, "for amount x I can buy a laptop, so why whould I want a UMPC?" Those comments tell me people are still working to grasp what we are really presenting. These are NOT laptop/desktop replacement computers, these are truly the first generation companion PCs. The reality is PCs are still stationary devices used in your home office (or kitchen table as the case may be), at work and for some in white collar professions, on airplanes. Technologies such as WiFi Hotspots provide a few more opportunities to whip out a laptop, but really only for the most technically adept. Laptops really have never been designed to be truly mobile I would content in the sense of using it while walking, standing, riding or even driving. Perhaps that is why "mainstream consumers" do not take their PCs with them in their cars, to the mall, or even to their couch. As the evoluation of 3G technologies such as EVDO and EDGE continue to take shape I think the value of having a PC with you more hours of the day and more days of the week are appearant. A form factor with complementary software that enables those scenarios is really what UMPC is all about. The first generation UMPCs that were revealed at CeBIT are a step in that direction and are frankly quite good at what they do. When you look at the Haiku prototype that Otto showed, you immediatley see the vision of the future and the advantages seem self evident, at least to me. If we're right or wrong I suppose only time will tell, but I know where I'm placing my bet. :)

I firmly believe there was a lot of hype behind the whole project. After seeing the promo videos etc, I was expected a lot. However once I saw the Samsung unit, I felt a little underwhelmed to say the least.

@Dustin Hubbard

Is there a public for all of this? Though I agree that a laptop isn't completely mobile. I think we have a cellphone for that.

Dustin, there is a technical term for people who walk around major cities engrossed on their portable electronic devices:

"Pedestrian Fatalities"

And I know this is a shock to those in the PacNorWest, but in some parts of the country, we get *direct sunlight* most of the year. Yes, all the brightness, no clouds in the way. There's not a backlight made that can be used in a portable form factor that can compete with that.

Or, instead of the hype being too much, maybe the product was too little.

I mean, come on. It's basically a re-branded tablet PC with a 7" screen.

That's it.

The "hype issue" was that only thatit just made it more of a bigger embarrassment for Microsoft. Without the hype, it would been just another tablet intro which the market ignored.

but really only for the most technically adept

Eh? Laptops are pretty mainstream by now, I see friends that (can't find the Control Panel and haven't turned on Cleartype in years) on WiFi at Starbucks all the live long day. Commoditization of software and hardware eventually made laptops mainstream (took eons however).

So you are saying, Laptops and WiFi are only for the “technically adept”, but a convoluted PDAish-touchy-feely virtual-keyboard with a new touch UI concept (that also uses WiFi) is for the mainstream? You have it exactly backwards. PDAs and Tablets, however well-intentioned, just don't have the input methods picture perfect. It's the geek PDA crowd to which this will appeal. A new touch input UI, however easy, still requires new learning and a restructure.

first generation UMPCs that were revealed at CeBIT are a step in that direction

Translated: ignore the first round. Gotta love the multiple 'steps in that direction' that it takes to get something Microsoft-influenced to ever catch on. Do one thing well and simple, Apple and Zen of Palm. The Microsoft fat-client scenario makes it more useful, but less used. Irony that.

do not take their PCs with them in their cars, to the mall, or even to their couch.

It has nothing to do with "being mobile". It's more of the world-view outlook sort, mainstream consumers do NOT make the CPU (in whatever form) the central focus in their lives. And most cellphone Smartphones are only used for voice. Becoming more "mobile" won't get you any more customers. Make it more mobile? Fine. But you also make it more complex for the mainstream. I think a lesson in basic anthropology is more apt than simple form-factor changing.

you immediatley see the vision of the future and the advantages seem self evident

Dude, come to Peoria sometime. Your Redmond-hazed 'self-evident' world-view, doesn't exactly play on Main Street. "Visions of the future", oh pluuuuuzze. Drop the SciFi channel mumbo jumbo.

But here's the roadmap...

It's doomed first round for sure, and then next round will be slow adoptional before Vista becomes mainstream enough. Press already thumbing noses, and analysts are 'platform long term', bloggers are 'it's too expensive and battery life sucks'. OEMs will dance the dance for awhile, dropping off until only a few leaders decide it's a worthy investment. Similar to Pocket PC, tons of OEMs, most drop out, leaving basically HP and Dell. Microsoft will continue on morphing it in the Tablet PC platform mode, bailing it (and OEMs and ISVs) out.

Just as a minor data point...I DO use my laptop on a couch at home. Specifically, my big papasan chair, with my feet up on the coffee table, and my laptop on my lap. Kicked back, relaxed. I have no problems talking or interacting with other folks when I'm home either.

I take it to meetings, no problems. I take it on planes, no problems, (and it's a 17" PowerBook, small it ain't)

This whole "you can't use a laptop anywhere but a desk" schtick is tired Table Marketing.

After reading every single comment I wanted to scream at this screen:
COME ON GUYS! IT'S WORTH THE HYPE!

Okay.. now I'm about to calm down. There are ... points to be mentioned again and again:
- Better input: DialKeys is a decent way of replacing the Tablet PC's pen based input.
- Better usability: Please read Otto's blogs at Origami Project's website (http://origamiproject.com/default.aspx) and discover the new features offered on the Origami platform.
- Better price: The price of a similar laptop or tablet computer available is almost 2x the expected Origami price. Top match in the available devices is Motion Computing's LS800 Tablet PC, which costs about US$1700 and offers similar user experience. Come on.. How can you ignore the price?

I see the first-gen origamis as niche as the Nokia 770. Origami will be a great hit and change the face of mobile computing if it hits the shelves with a US$500> price. It doesn't offer something "unseen" but it offers an optimized mobile pc and that's worth the hype.

And people who are against Scoble and criticize him for "overhyping origami": COME ON! Don't tell me you don't know Scoble's title? It's "technical evangelist" and it's his "job" to create all the hype. IMHO he's very very good at it :)

Cheers!

True Burak, but then he gets all pissy and whines when you call him a cheerleader. Can't have it both ways.

I haven't been back here since my post. Decided to check in since it seemed to create a wee firestorm.

>>>You’re the EEJIT who bought something you obviously didn’t want.

Uh, no. It was GIVEN TO ME FOR FREE by Nokia.

Now, if Samsung or TabletKiosk would like to give me a UMPC for free... hell, I'd even settle for a Founder (but God, not at 256MB RAM, no one should have to suffer that!!).

The best statement about Origami I've read:

http://www.geekculture.com/joyoftech/joyarchive...

Microsoft should just hire this 'Christopher Coulter', would save alot of headaches. I like the guy.