Yes. The hype got too big too fast.
Who was responsible? Dustin Hubbard, Group Manager over on the Mobile PC team. He explains what happened on the Origami team blog. He tells how he didn’t plan for the hype to get so out of control.
I was on several radio stations this morning pimping my book and a few of the hosts asked me about Origami. One said “I heard about it on Paul Harvey.” (Paul Harvey is probably the most respected radio voice in America).
And, with that, this will be my last Origami post until I get my hands on a production unit.
Update: long-time industry analyst Amy Wohl writes that my Channel 9 interview with Otto is a “kind of anti-hype.” Thanks Amy!
“The iPod wasn’t revolutionary at all. It was just an MP3 player with better software and decent design. Apple was hardly first there at all.
If Apple did anything even close to revolutionary, it is the implementation of iTunes and the iPod, and how well – executed they are”
1. The iPod and its software are mediocre at best. You can get better players and software for cheaper. It’s just a trendy product. Not great, really.
2. First few gens of the iPod were pricy, horribly over-sized and had major hardware failure issues.
3. UMPCs are a first gen device. Most of the major issues with the current models (bezel size, battery life, processing power) will be resolved in future generations. It is the natural evolution of hardware.
I can get 5-6 hours of battery life out of a laptop with a main and secondary battery. But I recall a time in which you could barely get an hour’s worth of juice out of an overpriced laptop. Now look at how well laptops are doing.
Give the UMPC some time. Everyone loves to point the DOA finger at new MS products. If Apple had announced this though, I’m sure people would overlook its issues because it has an Apple logo on it. And looks matter more than usefulness (as the iPod has proved).
Me? I’m waiting for the second-gen UMPCs that will run Vista. These devices are awesome for students. I have a PPC but extensive note taking is not so great on it. I was considering getting a slate tablet but the decent ones are way too expensive. I would gladly pay $800 for a decent UMPC. Powerful enough to get my school work done and small enough to use comfortably just about anywhere.
I can’t explain why people would want this device to be any smaller though. Shrinking it to pocket size would make using Windows and desktop apps a pain. I think their size is great. These devices cover the spectrum I’ve been looking for in a mobile PC. Now MS has everything covered. From PPCs to UMPCs to laptops to desktop replacement laptops. Something for everyone on the go.
Can’t wait to see how these little guys evolve. When they start hitting 5-6 hours of battery life I will definately get one for myself. My mom could use one too now that I think about it.
Paul Harvey? Bobby you’re dating yourself. I hope the marketing wonks at The Borg are a lot more hip with the kids than to reference Paul “and now the rest of the story” Harvey.
“The iPod wasn’t revolutionary at all. It was just an MP3 player with better software and decent design. Apple was hardly first there at all.
If Apple did anything even close to revolutionary, it is the implementation of iTunes and the iPod, and how well – executed they are”
1. The iPod and its software are mediocre at best. You can get better players and software for cheaper. It’s just a trendy product. Not great, really.
2. First few gens of the iPod were pricy, horribly over-sized and had major hardware failure issues.
3. UMPCs are a first gen device. Most of the major issues with the current models (bezel size, battery life, processing power) will be resolved in future generations. It is the natural evolution of hardware.
I can get 5-6 hours of battery life out of a laptop with a main and secondary battery. But I recall a time in which you could barely get an hour’s worth of juice out of an overpriced laptop. Now look at how well laptops are doing.
Give the UMPC some time. Everyone loves to point the DOA finger at new MS products. If Apple had announced this though, I’m sure people would overlook its issues because it has an Apple logo on it. And looks matter more than usefulness (as the iPod has proved).
Me? I’m waiting for the second-gen UMPCs that will run Vista. These devices are awesome for students. I have a PPC but extensive note taking is not so great on it. I was considering getting a slate tablet but the decent ones are way too expensive. I would gladly pay $800 for a decent UMPC. Powerful enough to get my school work done and small enough to use comfortably just about anywhere.
I can’t explain why people would want this device to be any smaller though. Shrinking it to pocket size would make using Windows and desktop apps a pain. I think their size is great. These devices cover the spectrum I’ve been looking for in a mobile PC. Now MS has everything covered. From PPCs to UMPCs to laptops to desktop replacement laptops. Something for everyone on the go.
Can’t wait to see how these little guys evolve. When they start hitting 5-6 hours of battery life I will definately get one for myself. My mom could use one too now that I think about it.
Paul Harvey? Bobby you’re dating yourself. I hope the marketing wonks at The Borg are a lot more hip with the kids than to reference Paul “and now the rest of the story” Harvey.
I don’t think it was overhyped, I don’t like Microsoft, but I like Origami (or at least the Samsung version everyone is featuring), and I feel everyone is jumping on the ‘it was overhyped’ bandwagon just because it’s trendy and nobody has the guts to give some points to Microsoft.
I don’t even understand how you can say Microsoft overhyped it, Microsoft produced a marketing campaign spending the money it felt it deserved, the public (i.e. you) are the ones who took notice of this campaign, you have only yourself to blame if you let a marketing campaign get you too excited.
Next time Microsoft puts big money into releasing a product you will all say ‘It will just be a flop like Origami’, only seeing if it is a flop will be what keeps you just as interested.
Have fun consumers.
P.S. I’m don’t agree that 3 hours battery life and desktop boot times are great, but oh look, my nano is scratched to death, despite almost never being out of a case, aren’t we all glad that Apple (who I do like) make such perfect products!
I don’t think it was overhyped, I don’t like Microsoft, but I like Origami (or at least the Samsung version everyone is featuring), and I feel everyone is jumping on the ‘it was overhyped’ bandwagon just because it’s trendy and nobody has the guts to give some points to Microsoft.
I don’t even understand how you can say Microsoft overhyped it, Microsoft produced a marketing campaign spending the money it felt it deserved, the public (i.e. you) are the ones who took notice of this campaign, you have only yourself to blame if you let a marketing campaign get you too excited.
Next time Microsoft puts big money into releasing a product you will all say ‘It will just be a flop like Origami’, only seeing if it is a flop will be what keeps you just as interested.
Have fun consumers.
P.S. I’m don’t agree that 3 hours battery life and desktop boot times are great, but oh look, my nano is scratched to death, despite almost never being out of a case, aren’t we all glad that Apple (who I do like) make such perfect products!
Thanks to Goebbels for digging up the dates.
The first tease was on a Friday afternoon, as I recall, and I figured at the time that it was an attempt to keep the headline atop the aggregators over the weekend.
Thanks to Goebbels for digging up the dates.
The first tease was on a Friday afternoon, as I recall, and I figured at the time that it was an attempt to keep the headline atop the aggregators over the weekend.
[...] Scoble is being picked on in the comments section of one of his posts. Was Origami over-hyped? Chime in at scobleizer. My opinion is that Origami is deserving of hype being the most affordable small form factor XP device with a touch screen. [...]
so someone was blaming us coz we fell for a marketing campaign?
well the way MS is performing you won’t have to worry next time.
I thought there was an MS hardware, my mistake…
so someone was blaming us coz we fell for a marketing campaign?
well the way MS is performing you won’t have to worry next time.
I thought there was an MS hardware, my mistake…
Ariel,
The vast majority of the portable music player market says you’re wrong.
The auto companies making car kits for the iPod say your wrong.
The billionth song downloaded from iTunes say you’re wrong.
You may not personally like the iPod, but your opinion is not in fact, fact. Indeed, show me another portable music player with a cohesive hardware API like the iPod and its Dock.
Ariel,
The vast majority of the portable music player market says you’re wrong.
The auto companies making car kits for the iPod say your wrong.
The billionth song downloaded from iTunes say you’re wrong.
You may not personally like the iPod, but your opinion is not in fact, fact. Indeed, show me another portable music player with a cohesive hardware API like the iPod and its Dock.
Why would anyone call this overhyped? I’d call it an extremely successful PR campaign.
Why would anyone call this overhyped? I’d call it an extremely successful PR campaign.
The Scoblerizer asked “Was Origami overhyped? Yes. The hype got too big too fast. Who was responsible?”
You were, Robert. (that’s a royal you) I first heard about it on your blog. I then read some hype from the usual tech journos who didn’t know anything else either.
To be honest, I think a lot of people are still waiting for PRODUCT. Vapour is easy to overhype as there’s no substance.
Ever occur to you why Apple keeps their mouth shut before a product is ready to ship?
The Scoblerizer asked “Was Origami overhyped? Yes. The hype got too big too fast. Who was responsible?”
You were, Robert. (that’s a royal you) I first heard about it on your blog. I then read some hype from the usual tech journos who didn’t know anything else either.
To be honest, I think a lot of people are still waiting for PRODUCT. Vapour is easy to overhype as there’s no substance.
Ever occur to you why Apple keeps their mouth shut before a product is ready to ship?
Origami: For The Paper Birds?
I used to make origami cranes in grade school similar to the one shown. The blogosphere has been buzzing about origami in the last week or so you would have thought a herd of crazed paper cranes armed with
Origami: Nice, but still very dear.
If they cost $500 the hype would be forgiven. Still I suppose give it three years, the old models will go for that.
Then look rather like the psp especially in black and share some of the same functionality, videos, net, music, games.
If they restrict what you can download they will fail, if they don’t they will sell like hot cakes.
The psp restricts a lot of downloads. This could beat it on that.
If you can save everything you can save to a normal windows pc people will go wild. Movies, music, p0rn, games, work, comics on the go. In a smaller format that a laptop. Many people will be very happy.
But how comfortable will it be to use? Is it familar from using other devices? Is it easily broken? Is it waterproof? How heavy is it? Whats the battery life.
Origami: Nice, but still very dear.
If they cost $500 the hype would be forgiven. Still I suppose give it three years, the old models will go for that.
Then look rather like the psp especially in black and share some of the same functionality, videos, net, music, games.
If they restrict what you can download they will fail, if they don’t they will sell like hot cakes.
The psp restricts a lot of downloads. This could beat it on that.
If you can save everything you can save to a normal windows pc people will go wild. Movies, music, p0rn, games, work, comics on the go. In a smaller format that a laptop. Many people will be very happy.
But how comfortable will it be to use? Is it familar from using other devices? Is it easily broken? Is it waterproof? How heavy is it? Whats the battery life.
[...] Over-hype. Scoble claims it was a mistake, and forgive me if I’m skeptical Robert, but this sounds like PR. “Uh oh, nobody thinks this thing is earth-shattering, and we really over hyped it. Deflect the hype machine from our marketing department to the community, yeah, that’s it – blame the Internet for wanting us to come out with a great product.” [...]
What I want to know is how come the hardware partners don’t have any information about these units on their websites?
What I want to know is how come the hardware partners don’t have any information about these units on their websites?
Why hype it so much when you can’t find it to buy? I went to the UMPC site and you have to search to find out where one might be able to buy one. ASUS, Founder & Samsung look like the 3 who have UMPCs available, but when you go to their sites, one would think they would be sitting on their home pages, one click away from a purchase or at very least, a distributor who will gladly sell you one. But alas, ASUS doesn’t even recognize UMPC as a product, Samsung shows regular laptops as their Ultra Mobile devices. Lesson learned: make sure the product is ready & available before the “hype hits the fan.”
Why hype it so much when you can’t find it to buy? I went to the UMPC site and you have to search to find out where one might be able to buy one. ASUS, Founder & Samsung look like the 3 who have UMPCs available, but when you go to their sites, one would think they would be sitting on their home pages, one click away from a purchase or at very least, a distributor who will gladly sell you one. But alas, ASUS doesn’t even recognize UMPC as a product, Samsung shows regular laptops as their Ultra Mobile devices. Lesson learned: make sure the product is ready & available before the “hype hits the fan.”
[...] Microsoft and Samsung have came together to creat a new Ultra-mobile Personal Computer, UMPC. This has been codenamed Microsoft Origami. Robert Scoble has successfully created huge hype for the new product around the blogosphere. [...]
“Do you know how I can change your life?”
Puleezzzzzze. Windows ’95 changed my life. Widnows 2000 changed my life.
Going from a 12″ screen to a 7″ screen does not change my life.
What is the hype going to be for the 6″ screen?
Or the 5″ screen, or the 9″ screen?
This was WAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY overhyped.
I’ve been following it from day one, and this is my take from it: The Origami is a PDA with real apps, not mini apps, and it runs on a 7″ screen.
So, its a better PDA (again, this is the impression I’ve been given by the hype). It’s not even manufactured my Microsoft!
If I already carry a PDA, how does a slightly better one change my life? Except for the possible exception that my company can now demand my services 24 hours a day for no additional pay because “I’m always connected,” this doesn’t really change my life, except in a BAD way.
At least today, I can claim that I dont’ have access to a computer, so I can have some time with my kid.
“Do you know how I can change your life?”
Puleezzzzzze. Windows ’95 changed my life. Widnows 2000 changed my life.
Going from a 12″ screen to a 7″ screen does not change my life.
What is the hype going to be for the 6″ screen?
Or the 5″ screen, or the 9″ screen?
This was WAAAAAAAAAYYYYYY overhyped.
I’ve been following it from day one, and this is my take from it: The Origami is a PDA with real apps, not mini apps, and it runs on a 7″ screen.
So, its a better PDA (again, this is the impression I’ve been given by the hype). It’s not even manufactured my Microsoft!
If I already carry a PDA, how does a slightly better one change my life? Except for the possible exception that my company can now demand my services 24 hours a day for no additional pay because “I’m always connected,” this doesn’t really change my life, except in a BAD way.
At least today, I can claim that I dont’ have access to a computer, so I can have some time with my kid.
PS:
It’s sad too, because I LOVE Microsoft as a company. It produces for the most part, GREAT products.
My criticisms are for the HYPE, not the product. If you need a good PDA, and you don’t already ahve one, THESE are the ones to get.
PS:
It’s sad too, because I LOVE Microsoft as a company. It produces for the most part, GREAT products.
My criticisms are for the HYPE, not the product. If you need a good PDA, and you don’t already ahve one, THESE are the ones to get.
When I can get an Origami – spec device through Sprint, with EVDO, and a week’s worth of standby time, able to go a day or more of constant PDA use without a charge, and a good 6 hours of talk time with at least the same screen size as my PPC-6601 with a better keyboard for $450, then I’ll buy one on the spot.
Until then, no. What I’ve seen would be less functional than the PPC-6601, and cost 4 times more. Less functionality, more expensive. That’s kind of the opposite of what I want.
When I can get an Origami – spec device through Sprint, with EVDO, and a week’s worth of standby time, able to go a day or more of constant PDA use without a charge, and a good 6 hours of talk time with at least the same screen size as my PPC-6601 with a better keyboard for $450, then I’ll buy one on the spot.
Until then, no. What I’ve seen would be less functional than the PPC-6601, and cost 4 times more. Less functionality, more expensive. That’s kind of the opposite of what I want.
Just about the only good use I can imagine for this device is surfing the web from your couch or from in bed, it could possibly also be good for something like inventory management or inspections but didn’t tablets already fail at that?
The virtual keyboard thing sounds interesting but why in the heck isn’t the device shaped in such a way that you can easily grip it in order to use the keyboard? Plus typing using a touch screen kind of sucks as there is no tactile feedback and for those people getting all excited about the Bluetooth laser projected keyboard you are aware that such a device has been around for quite some time aren’t you? I could buy one for my Treo if I really wanted to.
Just about the only good use I can imagine for this device is surfing the web from your couch or from in bed, it could possibly also be good for something like inventory management or inspections but didn’t tablets already fail at that?
The virtual keyboard thing sounds interesting but why in the heck isn’t the device shaped in such a way that you can easily grip it in order to use the keyboard? Plus typing using a touch screen kind of sucks as there is no tactile feedback and for those people getting all excited about the Bluetooth laser projected keyboard you are aware that such a device has been around for quite some time aren’t you? I could buy one for my Treo if I really wanted to.
MSFT’s goal should be to underpromise and overdeliver every time out, in particular because it has so often done the reverse. Indeed, while MSFT execs lament the slowing adoption curve for legacy products, they helped create it by shipping wave after wave of marginal upgrades. Against that backdrop, imo the Origami launch was unsuccessful. It ended up way overhyping a product that in its current form could only end up underdelivering and by a significant margin. That the buzz could be created, shows that there are still a lot of folks who want MSFT to do SOMETHING (anything?) big, bold and successful and show that it’s still capable of competing in this decade. But you don’t get many kicks at that can, and this one unfortunately was squandered.
MSFT’s goal should be to underpromise and overdeliver every time out, in particular because it has so often done the reverse. Indeed, while MSFT execs lament the slowing adoption curve for legacy products, they helped create it by shipping wave after wave of marginal upgrades. Against that backdrop, imo the Origami launch was unsuccessful. It ended up way overhyping a product that in its current form could only end up underdelivering and by a significant margin. That the buzz could be created, shows that there are still a lot of folks who want MSFT to do SOMETHING (anything?) big, bold and successful and show that it’s still capable of competing in this decade. But you don’t get many kicks at that can, and this one unfortunately was squandered.
I have some suggestions for the UMPC class of device:
http://weblogs.asp.net/jtobler/archive/2006/03/09/439953.aspx
Most important: Microsoft and hardware vendors, please deliver on the promise!
I have some suggestions for the UMPC class of device:
http://weblogs.asp.net/jtobler/archive/2006/03/09/439953.aspx
Most important: Microsoft and hardware vendors, please deliver on the promise!
Why do so many people insist about blogging about something and then commenting here about doing so instead of just commenting here? Isn’t that against some kind of blogging ethics?
If you’re going to do that then just do a trackback to here instead.
Why do so many people insist about blogging about something and then commenting here about doing so instead of just commenting here? Isn’t that against some kind of blogging ethics?
If you’re going to do that then just do a trackback to here instead.
Robert,
After I said that you and others were managing expectations and that signaled that the product was DOA.
You wrote:
“Larry: we’ll talk again later this week after I get my Channel 9 video up.”
I still think the product is DOA, now your own people are saying the first iteration is going to be niche. For a company the size of Microsoft that seems to be a concession that it’ll arrive still born.
Robert,
I’d love to hear you ask your readers the question: Is the licensing model that Microsoft uses for PC’s relevant for the consumer products being introduced now?
Robert,
After I said that you and others were managing expectations and that signaled that the product was DOA.
You wrote:
“Larry: we’ll talk again later this week after I get my Channel 9 video up.”
I still think the product is DOA, now your own people are saying the first iteration is going to be niche. For a company the size of Microsoft that seems to be a concession that it’ll arrive still born.
Robert,
I’d love to hear you ask your readers the question: Is the licensing model that Microsoft uses for PC’s relevant for the consumer products being introduced now?
It was not over-hyped. Over-hype, IMO, is when one or more companies behind the product push it on the masses more heavily than the people have interest in it. In the case of Origami, it was the intense interest of the masses that drove and encouraged more information to be shared. It’s not hype if the public clamors for details and you simply give them to them.
It was not over-hyped. Over-hype, IMO, is when one or more companies behind the product push it on the masses more heavily than the people have interest in it. In the case of Origami, it was the intense interest of the masses that drove and encouraged more information to be shared. It’s not hype if the public clamors for details and you simply give them to them.
Mrrh, I don’t think the hype got too big- Think of the various things you can do with your PC, You can do anything from surfing the web- Watching movies, Playing games to buying your groceries. This UMPC seems to be a PC that you can carry around with you- Meaning it too will have these endless possibilities, Maybe i’m mistaken about what it really is- But so far from what i’ve read and seen, It’s a Mobile Computer- With access to the internet in various places- And that in itself is something that deserves a shitload of hype. (pardon teh language. Xd)
At the very least it’s the beginning of something much bigger than itself- You just wait and maybe when you see what this small UMPC has caused- Then you’ll think it deserved the hype it got, Maybe even more. ^_^;
Wewt for it though- I’m going to sell a few things, Save a few bucks from my job- And get one of these. >:3 My teachers had a hard time getting me to pay attention in class before, Let’s see how low my marks go when i’ve got the internet at my- Now mobile- Disposal.
Wewt Weewtt..
Err, Haha- As I always do- I’ll apologize if my message offended any of the readers- And sorry if I seemed a little uninformed or- To be blunt, Stupid. Hey- I’m only sixteen, I’ll have time to fix that.. Next year or so..
-David ‘tux’ Tucker
(one more ‘wewt’ for UMPCs, Can’t wait to get one.)
Mrrh, I don’t think the hype got too big- Think of the various things you can do with your PC, You can do anything from surfing the web- Watching movies, Playing games to buying your groceries. This UMPC seems to be a PC that you can carry around with you- Meaning it too will have these endless possibilities, Maybe i’m mistaken about what it really is- But so far from what i’ve read and seen, It’s a Mobile Computer- With access to the internet in various places- And that in itself is something that deserves a shitload of hype. (pardon teh language. Xd)
At the very least it’s the beginning of something much bigger than itself- You just wait and maybe when you see what this small UMPC has caused- Then you’ll think it deserved the hype it got, Maybe even more. ^_^;
Wewt for it though- I’m going to sell a few things, Save a few bucks from my job- And get one of these. >:3 My teachers had a hard time getting me to pay attention in class before, Let’s see how low my marks go when i’ve got the internet at my- Now mobile- Disposal.
Wewt Weewtt..
Err, Haha- As I always do- I’ll apologize if my message offended any of the readers- And sorry if I seemed a little uninformed or- To be blunt, Stupid. Hey- I’m only sixteen, I’ll have time to fix that.. Next year or so..
-David ‘tux’ Tucker
(one more ‘wewt’ for UMPCs, Can’t wait to get one.)
Robert’s blog obviviously has an educated following, I found the comments above interesting and useful. One thing that I’ve read many times this week however is, “for amount x I can buy a laptop, so why whould I want a UMPC?” Those comments tell me people are still working to grasp what we are really presenting. These are NOT laptop/desktop replacement computers, these are truly the first generation companion PCs. The reality is PCs are still stationary devices used in your home office (or kitchen table as the case may be), at work and for some in white collar professions, on airplanes. Technologies such as WiFi Hotspots provide a few more opportunities to whip out a laptop, but really only for the most technically adept. Laptops really have never been designed to be truly mobile I would content in the sense of using it while walking, standing, riding or even driving. Perhaps that is why “mainstream consumers” do not take their PCs with them in their cars, to the mall, or even to their couch. As the evoluation of 3G technologies such as EVDO and EDGE continue to take shape I think the value of having a PC with you more hours of the day and more days of the week are appearant. A form factor with complementary software that enables those scenarios is really what UMPC is all about. The first generation UMPCs that were revealed at CeBIT are a step in that direction and are frankly quite good at what they do. When you look at the Haiku prototype that Otto showed, you immediatley see the vision of the future and the advantages seem self evident, at least to me. If we’re right or wrong I suppose only time will tell, but I know where I’m placing my bet.
Robert’s blog obviviously has an educated following, I found the comments above interesting and useful. One thing that I’ve read many times this week however is, “for amount x I can buy a laptop, so why whould I want a UMPC?” Those comments tell me people are still working to grasp what we are really presenting. These are NOT laptop/desktop replacement computers, these are truly the first generation companion PCs. The reality is PCs are still stationary devices used in your home office (or kitchen table as the case may be), at work and for some in white collar professions, on airplanes. Technologies such as WiFi Hotspots provide a few more opportunities to whip out a laptop, but really only for the most technically adept. Laptops really have never been designed to be truly mobile I would content in the sense of using it while walking, standing, riding or even driving. Perhaps that is why “mainstream consumers” do not take their PCs with them in their cars, to the mall, or even to their couch. As the evoluation of 3G technologies such as EVDO and EDGE continue to take shape I think the value of having a PC with you more hours of the day and more days of the week are appearant. A form factor with complementary software that enables those scenarios is really what UMPC is all about. The first generation UMPCs that were revealed at CeBIT are a step in that direction and are frankly quite good at what they do. When you look at the Haiku prototype that Otto showed, you immediatley see the vision of the future and the advantages seem self evident, at least to me. If we’re right or wrong I suppose only time will tell, but I know where I’m placing my bet.
I firmly believe there was a lot of hype behind the whole project. After seeing the promo videos etc, I was expected a lot. However once I saw the Samsung unit, I felt a little underwhelmed to say the least.
I firmly believe there was a lot of hype behind the whole project. After seeing the promo videos etc, I was expected a lot. However once I saw the Samsung unit, I felt a little underwhelmed to say the least.