Thinking back on the last two days of Gnomedex and I am wondering “where was Google?” I don’t remember meeting a Google employee (I just looked through my stack of more than a hundred business cards and didn’t find one from Google).
But, yet, Google was the talk of the conference. A Yahoo employee even said “Google me” which got everyone to laugh.
This is a huge shift, though. Three years ago at Gnomedex Google was all over the place. It sponsored a party at Gnomedex and had lots of employees and recruiters there. And they had — by far — the coolest swag.
But at 2006 Gnomedex? Not a thing. Not a logo. Not an employee.
It’s interesting. Google is willing to hire away Microsoft executives for millions of dollars. One just this week (Vic Gundotra will probably run their developer network).
The problem is that people are starting to notice that Google gets the hype, but isn’t getting adoption (read an interesting BusinessWeek article that makes the same point). And don’t you think for one moment that telling your story isn’t important.
Even Google senses something wrong. Watch Seth Godin presenting at Google and listen to a Google employee wondering why Google Maps isn’t getting better market share numbers in areas other than search. (That part is at 43:13).
Well, you aren’t going to get better market share numbers by not showing up to influential computer conferences (Gnomedex isn’t the first one I’ve noticed Google not showing up to, either — I don’t remember seeing them at IT@Cork. I don’t remember seeing them at Reboot. Both conferences that had lots of developers).
What’s funny is that Vic will show up at those same conferences in a year after he comes off his “vacation” and will ask developers and geeks and bloggers and influentials to get excited about Google’s latest stuff.
My point then will be “sorry, we’ve already switched to Yahoo and Microsoft (or, RawSugar or TagJag — both of which are working to build new search experiences that the big companies aren’t willing to do) cause they came to Gnomedex and showed us some cool stuff and listened to us about how to improve it.”
One of the best sessions at the conference was when three venture capitalists gave feedback about TagJag (and the audience jumped in offering often harsh commentary and quite a few really great ideas).
See, this is what Google did so well in the early days: it learned from its users and set a “cool and trustworthy tone” by showing up to small events and listening to users. Matt Cutts of Google, for instance, is the best at this — he builds relationships at search engine conferences. I got a chance to follow him around earlier this year and he met with dozens of SEO experts and picked their brains and got tons of ideas about how to improve their spam-detection algorithms. He also, by being there, told everyone “you, and what you do, is important.”
I guess Google doesn’t think the Gnomedex audience is important anymore. Yet when I walked around the room I kept seeing Google being used all over the place.
That’s not a good message to send and it will come around to haunt them. Vic, you have your work cut out — so enjoy your year off!
Update: a friend noted that Steve Ballmer didn’t show up either, although Yahoo, Ask.com, and Microsoft were sponsors of Gnomedex.
Mujibur: no, I didn’t make that point with him. You weren’t there, the numbers I was trying to present to him didn’t satisfy him. In other events we had much more persuasive numbers and were better prepared for an executive review.
Apple’s market share is way lower than Google’s search or email share and its stock price has stalled. The only reason it went way up is cause it hit a grand slam home run with the iPod. Maybe Apple should think about what its next home run will be?
Touche about Microsoft’s numbers, but I do note that the stock price is pretty low there and Xbox market share is going way up lately. You’ll see that in the next financial statements.
Hans: >Could the shift you’re seeing be more about their target changing to a broader, less technical audience? I think so.
Interesting idea, but one that doesn’t stand up on scrutiny. Does Google attend other influential conferences for lawyers, teachers, plumbers? No. At least not that I’ve seen.
And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from.
Here’s a hint for why that’s true: why didn’t the search engine get sold to “normal humans” first?
It’s cause normal humans don’t like trying new technologies where geeks and early adopters like me do.
Hans: >Could the shift you’re seeing be more about their target changing to a broader, less technical audience? I think so.
Interesting idea, but one that doesn’t stand up on scrutiny. Does Google attend other influential conferences for lawyers, teachers, plumbers? No. At least not that I’ve seen.
And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from.
Here’s a hint for why that’s true: why didn’t the search engine get sold to “normal humans” first?
It’s cause normal humans don’t like trying new technologies where geeks and early adopters like me do.
Just a note: the EuroPython conference I am attending right now has actually Google presence. And there’s even some swag supposed to be here just that the package has got lost somewhere inside CERN
(but I’ve got a T-Shirt, yay!)
In fact they are also sponsoring this conference but actually it’s the first time I see them at some EuroPython.
Just a note: the EuroPython conference I am attending right now has actually Google presence. And there’s even some swag supposed to be here just that the package has got lost somewhere inside CERN
(but I’ve got a T-Shirt, yay!)
In fact they are also sponsoring this conference but actually it’s the first time I see them at some EuroPython.
> And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from.
No way, sorry, Robert. The tech audience did not make Google into a verb. That’s just rank and file ordinary normal web surfers doing that.
The tech audience WAS the early adopter that helped Google rise to success. Without that audience, Google the verb never would have eventually happened.
The tech audience may also be the audience that helps it get some of its other non-search or non-web search products to gain ground. But Google’s also got a well established core audience of “normal” people at this point. And it can reach out to that audience directly, as it already does, through its own web site or newsletters.
I’m not saying Google shouldn’t get out more to more conferences — but then again, I don’t track all the conferences they get to. I know they’ve been at several librarian conferences, for example — those are influential but not conferences you’ve likely attended. I know they’ve been at a few book publishing things, and they’ve also been at that German conference on search issues last week. So they do get out, perhaps more than you know, but perhaps still not as much as they should.
Whether getting out in front of the “influencers” will remain crucial to their success remains to be seen. That can be a key factor with some products; other products can be so compelling that you don’t need influencers behind their adoption.
> And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from.
No way, sorry, Robert. The tech audience did not make Google into a verb. That’s just rank and file ordinary normal web surfers doing that.
The tech audience WAS the early adopter that helped Google rise to success. Without that audience, Google the verb never would have eventually happened.
The tech audience may also be the audience that helps it get some of its other non-search or non-web search products to gain ground. But Google’s also got a well established core audience of “normal” people at this point. And it can reach out to that audience directly, as it already does, through its own web site or newsletters.
I’m not saying Google shouldn’t get out more to more conferences — but then again, I don’t track all the conferences they get to. I know they’ve been at several librarian conferences, for example — those are influential but not conferences you’ve likely attended. I know they’ve been at a few book publishing things, and they’ve also been at that German conference on search issues last week. So they do get out, perhaps more than you know, but perhaps still not as much as they should.
Whether getting out in front of the “influencers” will remain crucial to their success remains to be seen. That can be a key factor with some products; other products can be so compelling that you don’t need influencers behind their adoption.
Matt Cutts said:
Matt, this is what happens when you don’t have community evangelists. Robert wasn’t being taken away from coding when he went to conferences for Microsoft, because he was doing his job reaching out for Microsoft to the community. If you realize this problem, who not explain to your hiring committees that they need to hire some more passionate people who have less technical skills, and great outreach skills.
Matt Cutts said:
Matt, this is what happens when you don’t have community evangelists. Robert wasn’t being taken away from coding when he went to conferences for Microsoft, because he was doing his job reaching out for Microsoft to the community. If you realize this problem, who not explain to your hiring committees that they need to hire some more passionate people who have less technical skills, and great outreach skills.
[...] Robert Scoble says Google is ignoring the tech community, becoming very insular, and not giving people reasons to champion its products. Google wasn’t at Gnomedex, and its presence at geek events is only shrinking as the company grows. Googlers are getting audibly frustrated at the lack of success of their projects, and there’s a good reason for it. Posted: July 3, 2006 by Nathan Weinberg in: [...]
Danny, I totally disagree. The first time I heard Google being used as a verb was with geeks, not in “normal” society.
Our culture leaks from geek groups into regular society so fast that you might miss this, but it wasn’t my mom that said “hey, Google this” first.
Yeah, I know they’ve gone to a variety of conferences. I keep in touch with teachers, plumbers, truckers, librarians, by the way, but it seems like they’ve been showing up to fewer and fewer things, particularly the small ones where culture really gets built.
Danny, I totally disagree. The first time I heard Google being used as a verb was with geeks, not in “normal” society.
Our culture leaks from geek groups into regular society so fast that you might miss this, but it wasn’t my mom that said “hey, Google this” first.
Yeah, I know they’ve gone to a variety of conferences. I keep in touch with teachers, plumbers, truckers, librarians, by the way, but it seems like they’ve been showing up to fewer and fewer things, particularly the small ones where culture really gets built.
taotakashi, glad you got a Google T-shirt from EuroPython.
Nathan Weinberg, I personally agree that it would be great to get some more evangelists on board.
Robert, I do think that Google is talking to more people at more conferences than we did in previous years. Participating at places such as SIGIR, the WWW conference, Linux World, Internet Librarian, Infonortics, WebSearchU, SIGIR, EuroPython, Kelsey Group conferences, etc. might not make it on your radar as much. There are a lot of places that Google talks to different folks. You probably don’t make it to places such as SIGGRAPH as often as (v)blogger get togethers, for example, but there are also lots of smart people there. And things like the Summer of Code are another great way to meet talented students who will give feedback.
BTW, I’d love to hear about “a year in the life of Scoble”–basically a rundown of which conferences you hit this past year. That would be pretty interesting. Is it more than 20?
P.S. I think “The Dish” would be a great podcast, except everyone would be out of breath for the first 10 minutes as they climbed that first hill.
taotakashi, glad you got a Google T-shirt from EuroPython.
Nathan Weinberg, I personally agree that it would be great to get some more evangelists on board.
Robert, I do think that Google is talking to more people at more conferences than we did in previous years. Participating at places such as SIGIR, the WWW conference, Linux World, Internet Librarian, Infonortics, WebSearchU, SIGIR, EuroPython, Kelsey Group conferences, etc. might not make it on your radar as much. There are a lot of places that Google talks to different folks. You probably don’t make it to places such as SIGGRAPH as often as (v)blogger get togethers, for example, but there are also lots of smart people there. And things like the Summer of Code are another great way to meet talented students who will give feedback.
BTW, I’d love to hear about “a year in the life of Scoble”–basically a rundown of which conferences you hit this past year. That would be pretty interesting. Is it more than 20?
P.S. I think “The Dish” would be a great podcast, except everyone would be out of breath for the first 10 minutes as they climbed that first hill.
[...] Many people are jumping on the Google is failing bandwagon. Scoble, Loosewire, and others. Here are some contrary thoughts, just to stir everyone up. [...]
> Danny, I totally disagree. The first time I heard Google being used as a verb was with geeks, not in “normal” society.
I don’t know where the term began. It could have indeed come from geeks talking about it. The bigger point is that it’s not a geek thing any more. Google isn’t powerful today because geek’s make it powerful. It’s powerful because “normals” use it — and those normals, Google can reach out to them directly
By the way, the first time I saw the term “googled” used was back in 2001 from a decidedly non-geek resource, the New York Observer. The article was:
Don’t Be Shy, Ladies — Google Him! Check Out His Search Engine First
http://www.deborahschoeneman.com/pages/pops/google.html
2001, Robert — normals using Google back then and citing it as a verb. Maybe it was used by geeks before this, but that’s the oldest cite I’ve ever seen in my years of watching.
> Danny, I totally disagree. The first time I heard Google being used as a verb was with geeks, not in “normal” society.
I don’t know where the term began. It could have indeed come from geeks talking about it. The bigger point is that it’s not a geek thing any more. Google isn’t powerful today because geek’s make it powerful. It’s powerful because “normals” use it — and those normals, Google can reach out to them directly
By the way, the first time I saw the term “googled” used was back in 2001 from a decidedly non-geek resource, the New York Observer. The article was:
Don’t Be Shy, Ladies — Google Him! Check Out His Search Engine First
http://www.deborahschoeneman.com/pages/pops/google.html
2001, Robert — normals using Google back then and citing it as a verb. Maybe it was used by geeks before this, but that’s the oldest cite I’ve ever seen in my years of watching.
Robert: > And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from… Here’s a hint for why that’s true: why didn’t the search engine get sold to “normal humans” first? It’s cause normal humans don’t like trying new technologies where geeks and early adopters like me do.
If you haven’t read it already, I highly recommend Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm. You already understand the early segments of his technology adoption life-cycle… where the innovators (e.g. most Gnomedexers) and early adopters live. But these segments aren’t where Google’s growth will come from.
Rather, Google is reaching deep into the pragmatist camps (early/late majority) and has even attracted some laggards. These groups make up the vast majority of the addressable market (statistically ~85% assuming a normal distribution). They’re the ones that still believe “Google is the way you get to anything else on that internet thing.” And they’re the ones who are clicking on the adsense ads that feed the company.
How many pragmatists and traditionalists are frequent conference attendees? Substantially fewer than innovators and early adopters.
This isn’t to say Google should piss off the innovators and early adopters… so it is nice to see at least a couple Googlers were in attendance. But at the same time I can appreciate their increased focus on the folks that will bring in the bulk of their revenues.
Robert: > And, like it or not Google’s target audience is still the tech industry. it’s where most of its market share will come from… Here’s a hint for why that’s true: why didn’t the search engine get sold to “normal humans” first? It’s cause normal humans don’t like trying new technologies where geeks and early adopters like me do.
If you haven’t read it already, I highly recommend Geoffrey Moore’s Crossing the Chasm. You already understand the early segments of his technology adoption life-cycle… where the innovators (e.g. most Gnomedexers) and early adopters live. But these segments aren’t where Google’s growth will come from.
Rather, Google is reaching deep into the pragmatist camps (early/late majority) and has even attracted some laggards. These groups make up the vast majority of the addressable market (statistically ~85% assuming a normal distribution). They’re the ones that still believe “Google is the way you get to anything else on that internet thing.” And they’re the ones who are clicking on the adsense ads that feed the company.
How many pragmatists and traditionalists are frequent conference attendees? Substantially fewer than innovators and early adopters.
This isn’t to say Google should piss off the innovators and early adopters… so it is nice to see at least a couple Googlers were in attendance. But at the same time I can appreciate their increased focus on the folks that will bring in the bulk of their revenues.
Hans: the problem is that how did Google get to the mass audience? THROUGH THE FREAKING EARLY ADOPTERS!!!!
It wasn’t my dad who woke up one morning and told ME about Google. No, it was the freaking OTHER WAY AROUND!!!
Guess who’s gonna tell him about Google Checkout, or Gmail, or Google Maps, or really, any of its services? That’s right. An early adopter.
Unless they start doing Superbowl ads.
Hans: the problem is that how did Google get to the mass audience? THROUGH THE FREAKING EARLY ADOPTERS!!!!
It wasn’t my dad who woke up one morning and told ME about Google. No, it was the freaking OTHER WAY AROUND!!!
Guess who’s gonna tell him about Google Checkout, or Gmail, or Google Maps, or really, any of its services? That’s right. An early adopter.
Unless they start doing Superbowl ads.
[...] Which brings me to a point that Robert Scoble expounded on a few days ago, why Google was not at Gnomedex. [...]
Godin at Google…
Seth Godin presents at Google … surprising and nice of them to put it up on Google video.
Well worth the 50 minute watch. It’s like a condensed version of the entire Godin oeuvre plus a business case all in one. Of course, I’m a Godin fan boy…
[...] to pay this year, so I’m going back again. I’ll have to make sure that I actually give a business card to Scoble this time, though, to avoid a repeat of last [...]