Reading the Long Tail with the Head Tail

I just watched Italy beating Germany in the World Cup. That’s about as head of tail experience as we’ll probably have this year. What’s the global audience for that game? Big.

But, today I’m reading Chris Anderson’s new book, the Long Tail. Chris sent me a signed copy and said good luck on my new venture. So, this post was bought and paid for. I’ll give this book away too, probably at BlogHer later this month.

It was a good book for me to read at this point in my life (I just finished it, interesting read).

I’ve experienced many of his points first hand, so the book really reasonated with me. Even my own book, which is hovering around 2,400 on Amazon’s best seller list makes that point. That’s not bad, right? After all there’s millions of books.

But, that only garners a few hundred sales a month. Yes, it’s glorious but we’re not getting rich.

Turns out that the only ones who do very well in the book business are those in the head of the tail. That’s the first 100 books and, really, the first 10 books.

That said, what Chris points out in his book is that Amazon is doing pretty darn well off of books like mine. Why? Because of the aggregate of millions of books most will sell at least a few (he shows that even deep into the tail books and music still sell a few copies). The authors don’t get rich. But if you build the right kind of business you can gather a lot of value.

So, as I head into the content business I’m thinking a lot. What’s valuable today? Owning a Google keyword.

Let’s practice this and brainstorm some more about what this means for podcasting.

What opportunities are there for podcasting? Well, how about travel? Let’s pick a specific city. My favorite is Paris. How many people will fly to Paris today from all over the world? Let’s say it’s 5,000. First of all, that tells you something. It’s a micro audience.

Second, of those 5,000, how many are tourists? I’d guess 10% (the rest live there, or are going there to do business, or are regular visitors so don’t really apply to what I’m thinking here).

OK, now, why are tourists interesting podcasting consumers? Well, for one, regular media can’t reach them efficiently. Most airplanes have video screens now, but only a few channels that are recorded in advance. Only a couple of lame radio stations, also recorded in advance. JetBlue has DirectTV, true, but how many JetBlue planes go to Paris? Not many.

That leaves us with the folks who have iPods or Creative Zens or other portable media players. Some computer users too, but a 10-hour-flight isn’t exactly good for computer users cause your batteries will die.

Now, what kind of content might a tourist heading toward Paris need?

1) Overview of the city.
2) Tour of each top tourist destination. (Paris has at least 10 things you MUST see).
3) Some language skills (how to read a French menu, or how to ask for a bathroom).
4) History of each section of the city.
5) Shopping guide.
6) Restaurant guide.
7) Granular guides to subsets of the tourist destinations (there could be a video podcast on the Impressionist room at the Musee d’Orsay, for instance).
So, let’s go to Google and do a search for “Travel to Paris podcast.” Why? Cause you know that podcasts are audio shows you can put on your iPod. Your iPod has 60GB. I was asking around Gnomedex how much people had on their iPods. The average answer was 2 to 9 GB. That leaves 50GB free.

Hell, if I had an iPod and was going to Paris, and all the above were available, I’d download that AND tons of other stuff.

But it isn’t available yet. Look at the Google results, there are SOME but not many podcasts about Paris and the ones that are there aren’t ranked, put in a directory, or made easy to download and put on your iPod.
Now, there are SOME podcasts available for Paris, but not many. And if Paris doesn’t have many there’s no hope for Shanghai or Tokyo or San Francisco or Las Vegas or Moscow or London or Cape Town.

That’s where the power of the Internet will come in.

It’ll be someone who can connect subject area experts in each city (the best ones are gonna come from the Amatuer podcasting ranks, not from the pro ranks like Rick Steves, who has an awesome PBS series on traveling to Europe).

Maybe Rick will be able to do it, but I doubt it — he’d have to see the value in working with amateurs who might not have the best video or audio equipment or production values. I have a feeling it’ll be a new kind of business produced by the word-of-mouth network itself (you, if you haven’t figured that out yet).

Could we do a Travel Podcast Wiki? That might be very interesting. I wonder if Chris Pirillo and Rick Segal’s community funding ideas might help us all make a few dollars a day off of the long tail?

Oh, and don’t you DARE think there’s no money in this concept.

Restaurants, hotels, entertainment shows, and more would LOVE to spend some targetted advertising dollars on this stuff.

Anyway, there’s a lot of opportunity left in the Long Tail yet to come. Buy the Long Tail, dream a little, and blog your ideas.

  • http://range.wordpress.com/ range

    Ipods…
    See I have this thing, I use up HD space quick. If I’d have a few TB, they would eventually fill up. I have a 40 gb Ipod and it’s almost full, maybe a few gigs free. That doesn’t mean that I don’t have other music to upload, I always do.

  • http://www.fonerbooks.com/ Morris Rosenthal

    “But, that only garners a few hundred sales a month. Yes, it’s glorious but we’re not getting rich.”

    But it’s still doing better that 4 million other titles on Amazon. If you had self published the book instead of going through Wiley, you’d be earning the publisher’s share rather than the author’s share. As a celebrity (yes, you’re a celebrity, I actually recognize your photograph from a session at WebmasterWorld) you have your own platform from which to sell books, it’s doubtful Wiley has much of value to add to your marketing. It’s true that the Long Tail is mainly valuable to middlemen, such as Amazon, Lightning Source and Google. But it’s also true that you can making a living selling less books, music, etc, if you remove some of the unnecessary middlemen, like the publisher:-)

  • http://www.fonerbooks.com Morris Rosenthal

    “But, that only garners a few hundred sales a month. Yes, it’s glorious but we’re not getting rich.”

    But it’s still doing better that 4 million other titles on Amazon. If you had self published the book instead of going through Wiley, you’d be earning the publisher’s share rather than the author’s share. As a celebrity (yes, you’re a celebrity, I actually recognize your photograph from a session at WebmasterWorld) you have your own platform from which to sell books, it’s doubtful Wiley has much of value to add to your marketing. It’s true that the Long Tail is mainly valuable to middlemen, such as Amazon, Lightning Source and Google. But it’s also true that you can making a living selling less books, music, etc, if you remove some of the unnecessary middlemen, like the publisher:-)

  • http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/ Robert Scoble

    Morris: what a big book publisher gets you is distribution. I doubt we would have been featured at Barnes and Noble if we had self published, for instance.

  • http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/ Robert Scoble

    Morris: what a big book publisher gets you is distribution. I doubt we would have been featured at Barnes and Noble if we had self published, for instance.

  • http://www.fonerbooks.com/ Morris Rosenthal

    Robert,

    A distributor gets you distribution, a big publisher gets you sell-in. Tim O’Reilly has written quite a bit on his blog about the low commercial success rate of new books, even with sell-in. If your book is targetted at a very wide audience, has high visibility, and isn’t in direct competition with books from publishers paying more for co-op placement, bookstore sell-in might result in a lot of sales. It might result in a lot of returns and remainders, which are death on Amazon.

    Sell-in, however, has nothing to do with success on Amazon, unless you believe in the advertising effect of seeing books at stores and then returning to Amazon to buy at a discount. The decision you have to make as an author is, what percentage of your books are likely to sell through bookstore placement (over the lifetime of the book) as opposed to sales through Amazon and special order.

    Since the point I was trying to make was about middlemen and the Long Tail, I’ll go back to Lightning Source, who can get your books into Amazon at a short discount. While the exact math depends on the page count and size of the book, and works better with paperbacks than hard covers, it boils down (for me) to about a 7:1 relationship. If I can sell one book self publishing for every seven books that would have been sold by a trade, I’m breaking even, without ever giving anything up. Mileage will vary, but Amazon alone probably sells more than one in seven new copies in many genres.

    I don’t want to spam your blog with links, so if you’re curious about the math, feel free to e-mail me. I did sell well over 100,000 books as a trade author before I went back to self publishing, and have received trade (and distribution) offers for every book I’ve self published since, so I’m not a publishing theorist:-)

  • http://www.fonerbooks.com Morris Rosenthal

    Robert,

    A distributor gets you distribution, a big publisher gets you sell-in. Tim O’Reilly has written quite a bit on his blog about the low commercial success rate of new books, even with sell-in. If your book is targetted at a very wide audience, has high visibility, and isn’t in direct competition with books from publishers paying more for co-op placement, bookstore sell-in might result in a lot of sales. It might result in a lot of returns and remainders, which are death on Amazon.

    Sell-in, however, has nothing to do with success on Amazon, unless you believe in the advertising effect of seeing books at stores and then returning to Amazon to buy at a discount. The decision you have to make as an author is, what percentage of your books are likely to sell through bookstore placement (over the lifetime of the book) as opposed to sales through Amazon and special order.

    Since the point I was trying to make was about middlemen and the Long Tail, I’ll go back to Lightning Source, who can get your books into Amazon at a short discount. While the exact math depends on the page count and size of the book, and works better with paperbacks than hard covers, it boils down (for me) to about a 7:1 relationship. If I can sell one book self publishing for every seven books that would have been sold by a trade, I’m breaking even, without ever giving anything up. Mileage will vary, but Amazon alone probably sells more than one in seven new copies in many genres.

    I don’t want to spam your blog with links, so if you’re curious about the math, feel free to e-mail me. I did sell well over 100,000 books as a trade author before I went back to self publishing, and have received trade (and distribution) offers for every book I’ve self published since, so I’m not a publishing theorist:-)

  • http://www.geogad.com/ Georgi Dagnall

    I find the discussion on creating digital travel information such as downloadable walking tours fascinating since this is exactly what Geogad, the company that I work for, is doing right now. If you surf over to the Geogad website at http://www.geogad.com, you can download a free MP3 walking tours of three popular travel cities, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Vancouver, Canada. The website and tours have only been available for a couple of weeks. If you would prefer a tour without ads, you can buy it from the Geogad website for $6.99. More tours to other cities are on the way.

    Geogad’s tours are made up of several MP3 files, and each file has a photo that highlights the audio narration. This photo could be a picture of the tour location so that the traveler can get his bearings, some detail that the traveler might miss if not pointed out, or a map accompanying the audio directions to the next tour stop.

    Please stop by the Geogad website and let us know what you think.

  • http://www.geogad.com Georgi Dagnall

    I find the discussion on creating digital travel information such as downloadable walking tours fascinating since this is exactly what Geogad, the company that I work for, is doing right now. If you surf over to the Geogad website at http://www.geogad.com, you can download a free MP3 walking tours of three popular travel cities, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Vancouver, Canada. The website and tours have only been available for a couple of weeks. If you would prefer a tour without ads, you can buy it from the Geogad website for $6.99. More tours to other cities are on the way.

    Geogad’s tours are made up of several MP3 files, and each file has a photo that highlights the audio narration. This photo could be a picture of the tour location so that the traveler can get his bearings, some detail that the traveler might miss if not pointed out, or a map accompanying the audio directions to the next tour stop.

    Please stop by the Geogad website and let us know what you think.

  • http://www.pluginready.com/ Donald

    Now, what kind of content might a tourist heading toward Paris need?

    Well, I’d like to know the best way to use my laptop to continue options trading?

    Is there good, fast, internet connections around?

    Don

  • http://www.pluginready.com Donald

    Now, what kind of content might a tourist heading toward Paris need?

    Well, I’d like to know the best way to use my laptop to continue options trading?

    Is there good, fast, internet connections around?

    Don