I was poking through the satellite radio stations on my Sirius radio when, whoa, Jason Calacanis’ voice was speaking at Maryam and I over Gillmor Gang. OK, that’s weird.
But then I switch over to NPR and, whoa, Chris Anderson is on talking about the Long Tail.
Hey, Chris, can you get the Wall Street Journal to say our book sucks too? 
All your media are belong to us. Or, there’s snakes in the ************* plane. Or something like that.
Anyway, there is a serious (er, Sirius) point to all this.
The online (er “new”) media is starting to leak into the mainstream “old” media.
What I think everyone is missing in the “Digg” version of the world is that we’ve built a farm system for media now that anyone can make media.
I’ve been listening to a LOT of “anyone media” and I can tell you that the Long Tail will NOT roar here. Most video blogs and podcasts just aren’t high enough quality to get a large audience. But, don’t write them off cause of that. The Long Tail does have a huge positive aspect:
The Long Tail is a stair system to the head!
Someone who does have talent can use it to walk up the curve from where only family and friends will watch all the way up to main stream media where millions are listening.
If you think Ze Frank is gonna remain in the Long Tail for very long your latte is a lot stronger than mine is today — by the way, don’t miss the announcement that he made in today’s show, he’s building social software to let you do things with people near you. We all know that people who don’t blink are gonna take over the media world.
Now, if you’re content to have your video blog stay at #1309 out of the 1,400 on vlogmap, then that’s cool. But some really have dreams of being at the head of the tail. Why? Cause that’s where the money is.
I learned that in the book business. The books who are in the top 5 on Amazon make many times more than books that hang out around #1,000 to #5,000 as we’ve been doing lately. And, being at #5,000 is a great honor cause there’s more than one million books on Amazon.
I’m looking for people who are walking up the Long Tail. Are you? Give me a call.
Oh, and unlike other community sites I believe deeply that you should get paid for the value you’re creating for the company that you’re adding to (Leo Laporte makes a good case for the other point of view). There are ways to hand out goodies equally to all members, but to say “I ain’t paying anyone” seems to me to be the kind of capitalist who just wants free materials and huge profits. It’s why I hated the time I heard all the CEOs say “user generated content” at the Google Zeitgeist conference last year since they were all seeing huge profit possibilities by having users do the work and they just collect the profits.
Anyway, we’re here in Silicon Valley and I’m overwhelmed with email. So, I’m gonna take a few days off of blogging and catch up with that.
Robert>> If you think Leo and Kevin don’t have a business plan I have a nice red bridge to sell you in San Francisco.
=) You are right Robert, however that’s not what I was trying to say… my mastery of english past tenses has room for improvement.
I meant that they both started out thinking “This is the next thing, let’s do this”, with a vague idea on how to monetize it. They were focused in creating a good product/service and assumed money would follow. So they became hits and money came.
Now, if you are a company focusing in the money part first, before building a community and just cloning another product, it won’t work.
Would Ask a Ninja be a hit if they have charged one dollar for each episode from the beginning? If they have paid some amount to each person who came up with a good question for the ninja? I don’t think so…
First you become popular, then you think about the money…
I could be wrong
@17 It just seemed to me you were recited from a high school econ text book. “Hey, Kids! Not sure if all of you know this, but when someone sells considerably more of their product than someone else, they make more money! Why? Because more people are buying their product than the other guy” Why? Because their product is obviously better. Why? Because they figured out how to produce a better product. Why? Because they likely are smarter. Why?…”
Hey! Look at that! Me figure out how to write like Scoble.. within incorrect grammar and everything!
Seriously, ff you were trying to make a more subtle point, I must have missed it. Why? There must have been something I wasn’t getting.
@17 It just seemed to me you were recited from a high school econ text book. “Hey, Kids! Not sure if all of you know this, but when someone sells considerably more of their product than someone else, they make more money! Why? Because more people are buying their product than the other guy” Why? Because their product is obviously better. Why? Because they figured out how to produce a better product. Why? Because they likely are smarter. Why?…”
Hey! Look at that! Me figure out how to write like Scoble.. within incorrect grammar and everything!
Seriously, ff you were trying to make a more subtle point, I must have missed it. Why? There must have been something I wasn’t getting.
Yeah, I’m clawing my way up the tail. I have a show, the Financial Aid Podcast, which at first glance sounds like the most interminably boring podcast ever, but most of my listeners (all 2,900 of them) enjoy it enough to keep coming back. Yesterday my first major corporate sponsor besides my underwriter approached me tentatively – so the faster I can walk up the tail, the better. If you’ve got ideas, let me hear em! financialaidpodcast at gmail dot com!
Thanks.
Yeah, I’m clawing my way up the tail. I have a show, the Financial Aid Podcast, which at first glance sounds like the most interminably boring podcast ever, but most of my listeners (all 2,900 of them) enjoy it enough to keep coming back. Yesterday my first major corporate sponsor besides my underwriter approached me tentatively – so the faster I can walk up the tail, the better. If you’ve got ideas, let me hear em! financialaidpodcast at gmail dot com!
Thanks.
Fantastic post Robert. Critics of the long tail, and even Chris himself, totally miss the fact that the long tail is making PRODUCTION hyperefficient and not necessarily CONSUMPTION. It’s fascinating there is demand for the 25% of stuff consumed on amazon that will never sell again but the real miracle is that the stuff was available for sale in the first place.
Fantastic post Robert. Critics of the long tail, and even Chris himself, totally miss the fact that the long tail is making PRODUCTION hyperefficient and not necessarily CONSUMPTION. It’s fascinating there is demand for the 25% of stuff consumed on amazon that will never sell again but the real miracle is that the stuff was available for sale in the first place.
[...] Scoble Gets Sirius – further evidence of the adoption of new media into mainstrream. [...]
@29 I missed have been sick that day in Econ class where they taught how to make money on PRODUCTION alone. Can you go over the theory for me?
@29 I missed have been sick that day in Econ class where they taught how to make money on PRODUCTION alone. Can you go over the theory for me?
I think long tail is the way to go.
I think long tail is the way to go.
You’re looking for people who are walking up the Long Tail.
Why?
You’re looking for people who are walking up the Long Tail.
Why?
PS: I think I’m one of the best Photoshop comicists in the business … if there is such a thing.
PS: I think I’m one of the best Photoshop comicists in the business … if there is such a thing.
“Do we want to be at the head of The Long Tail?”
What’s the head of the long tail? The head of the long tail is hardly negligably different than the theoretically infinite end of the tail, isn’t it?
Yeah, I want to be the 5% instead of the 1%.
I love how people misuse this rather basic premise. Somehow, the Head can be discounted because it’s always changing, always requires being replenished. But people then claim they can break out of the tail and become popular or mainstream from being marginal? Doesn’t that just make you a part of the “head” which needs to be replenished and will be something different in a year or two? Why yes, yes, it does.
“Do we want to be at the head of The Long Tail?”
What’s the head of the long tail? The head of the long tail is hardly negligably different than the theoretically infinite end of the tail, isn’t it?
Yeah, I want to be the 5% instead of the 1%.
I love how people misuse this rather basic premise. Somehow, the Head can be discounted because it’s always changing, always requires being replenished. But people then claim they can break out of the tail and become popular or mainstream from being marginal? Doesn’t that just make you a part of the “head” which needs to be replenished and will be something different in a year or two? Why yes, yes, it does.
“maybe the video blogging/podcasting would turn into the farm club for the film/tv industry”–
(include in this statement “online-streaming”)
Yesterday, Variety reported that NBC-U (Universal) has allowed a pirated copy of Warner Bros. pilot “Nobody’s Watching” to remain on YouTube and last week decided to revive the show for the NBC Network. Also, WBTV is selling its failed Fall’06 pilot “Aquaman” online-marking the first time a TV studio has launched programming on iTunes without any connection to a broadcast or cable network.”
“maybe the video blogging/podcasting would turn into the farm club for the film/tv industry”–
(include in this statement “online-streaming”)
Yesterday, Variety reported that NBC-U (Universal) has allowed a pirated copy of Warner Bros. pilot “Nobody’s Watching” to remain on YouTube and last week decided to revive the show for the NBC Network. Also, WBTV is selling its failed Fall’06 pilot “Aquaman” online-marking the first time a TV studio has launched programming on iTunes without any connection to a broadcast or cable network.”
Mapping an oligopoly popularity curve as an indicator of eventual economic success is just “grassrooty eyeballs economics” all over again, we have been here before and before that even (Alvin Toffler). But the Emperor still hath no Clothes, even if the focus has merely shifted to the “other half”.
Even if in a Long Tail, why work your way up to top of a niche? Point is to break out of that wholesale, If numbers are low, claim quality of listeners, when numbers high claim popularity, you can never lose with fools-gold metrics like that.
And, well outside of LayZ and Gobbels, it seems everyone needs an Economics refresher, as the most popular, the most “hyperefficient”, the best quality…don’t mean a thing by itself. Working your way up a mythical marketingese popularity chart is no insurance of success either, nor is staying in the now-revered productional niche. Needs, wants, supply and demand curves, management of said company, expenses and costs, resources and etc. etc. all factor into this grand puzzle.
Economic behavior, which is emotional, is impossible to predict, as past results don’t always indicate future trends, and all the technical charting and historical pattern recognition maps still can’t predict the future, in spite of what the Options trader types like to think.
Life is absurd, no nice even slopes, up to anything.
The Blockbuster is still there, but so is the runaway Sleeper hit.
Mapping an oligopoly popularity curve as an indicator of eventual economic success is just “grassrooty eyeballs economics” all over again, we have been here before and before that even (Alvin Toffler). But the Emperor still hath no Clothes, even if the focus has merely shifted to the “other half”.
Even if in a Long Tail, why work your way up to top of a niche? Point is to break out of that wholesale, If numbers are low, claim quality of listeners, when numbers high claim popularity, you can never lose with fools-gold metrics like that.
And, well outside of LayZ and Gobbels, it seems everyone needs an Economics refresher, as the most popular, the most “hyperefficient”, the best quality…don’t mean a thing by itself. Working your way up a mythical marketingese popularity chart is no insurance of success either, nor is staying in the now-revered productional niche. Needs, wants, supply and demand curves, management of said company, expenses and costs, resources and etc. etc. all factor into this grand puzzle.
Economic behavior, which is emotional, is impossible to predict, as past results don’t always indicate future trends, and all the technical charting and historical pattern recognition maps still can’t predict the future, in spite of what the Options trader types like to think.
Life is absurd, no nice even slopes, up to anything.
The Blockbuster is still there, but so is the runaway Sleeper hit.
All I know is this…I have a great voice for reading and poetry. I write it. I have a sense of the ways things drip off the tongue or rip your mind and heart out. But I have nary a technical nerve in my body. AGGGGGhhhh! Okay. I need a coach. I need step by step directions. Is anybody willing to help?
All I know is this…I have a great voice for reading and poetry. I write it. I have a sense of the ways things drip off the tongue or rip your mind and heart out. But I have nary a technical nerve in my body. AGGGGGhhhh! Okay. I need a coach. I need step by step directions. Is anybody willing to help?
@29 – Banking on production alone be the Marxist ‘Labor Theory of Value’. But is wholly flawed, as value is determined by the random Adam Smithian invisible machinations of the market, and not by the mere effort put into production.
A would you claim “miracle” in the Soviet mass production of widgets with no market? If the Soviets had listed them on Amazon, would that be “fascinating”?
Kinda funny, seeing all these Valleyese Libertarians expose a Marxist view, when you slap a techy tone onto it. Irony abounds.
I think the real lesson here, is in marketing to certain niches, just speak in their language and use their own buzzwords. They will drink pure poison and claim it the next new new big thing, it’s all in how you spin it.
@29 – Banking on production alone be the Marxist ‘Labor Theory of Value’. But is wholly flawed, as value is determined by the random Adam Smithian invisible machinations of the market, and not by the mere effort put into production.
A would you claim “miracle” in the Soviet mass production of widgets with no market? If the Soviets had listed them on Amazon, would that be “fascinating”?
Kinda funny, seeing all these Valleyese Libertarians expose a Marxist view, when you slap a techy tone onto it. Irony abounds.
I think the real lesson here, is in marketing to certain niches, just speak in their language and use their own buzzwords. They will drink pure poison and claim it the next new new big thing, it’s all in how you spin it.
Chris,
Just let me know when someone videobloggs, YouTubes, or streams anything as good as a Seinfeld episode.
Chris,
Just let me know when someone videobloggs, YouTubes, or streams anything as good as a Seinfeld episode.
Christopher: I think I’d call “SCAMMERS” just a late (possibly terminal) phase of “INDUSTRY”
Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but I really didn’t think Scoble was advocating working one’s way up to the top of a niche. Yes, he did say “head of the tail” at one point, but I read that as “head of the power law distribution to which the tail is attached.” Perhaps I was being generous.
If the distribution is a mouse, I don’t think he was talking about walking up the tail until you get to the mouse’s butt.
He specifically talked about being in the “top 5″ and having “millions” of listeners. Which doesn’t sound he is talking about being the most popular of the least popular….
But people then claim they can break out of the tail and become popular or mainstream from being marginal?
Goebbels, lots of things start off “marginal” and then become popular, don’t they? IIRC, your National Socialist German Workers Party was pretty marginal back in 1920.
What’s the head of the long tail?
I think our friend mujeres desnudas nude women amateur said it best when he said, “Mujeres desnudas amateur sex nude women.”
That’s the head of the long tail, amigo. ¿Comprende?
Well, either that or a mouse’s butt.
Man… why do all these posts sound like “Well gosh, why would you want to be popular? You’ll be rich and loved, yeah sure, but then one day you’re just gonna DIE, so what’s the point?”
I have a sense of the ways things drip off the tongue or rip your mind and heart out.
How are you with some of the other organs? Say spleen, kidney?
Christopher: I think I’d call “SCAMMERS” just a late (possibly terminal) phase of “INDUSTRY”
Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but I really didn’t think Scoble was advocating working one’s way up to the top of a niche. Yes, he did say “head of the tail” at one point, but I read that as “head of the power law distribution to which the tail is attached.” Perhaps I was being generous.
If the distribution is a mouse, I don’t think he was talking about walking up the tail until you get to the mouse’s butt.
He specifically talked about being in the “top 5″ and having “millions” of listeners. Which doesn’t sound he is talking about being the most popular of the least popular….
But people then claim they can break out of the tail and become popular or mainstream from being marginal?
Goebbels, lots of things start off “marginal” and then become popular, don’t they? IIRC, your National Socialist German Workers Party was pretty marginal back in 1920.
What’s the head of the long tail?
I think our friend mujeres desnudas nude women amateur said it best when he said, “Mujeres desnudas amateur sex nude women.”
That’s the head of the long tail, amigo. ¿Comprende?
Well, either that or a mouse’s butt.
Man… why do all these posts sound like “Well gosh, why would you want to be popular? You’ll be rich and loved, yeah sure, but then one day you’re just gonna DIE, so what’s the point?”
I have a sense of the ways things drip off the tongue or rip your mind and heart out.
How are you with some of the other organs? Say spleen, kidney?
I don’t spend a lot of time on Digg, so can someone please tell me why there has been such a big uproar/outcry against the pay-to-post proposal from Jason C.? Quality won’t automatically go down just because money is involved…
I don’t spend a lot of time on Digg, so can someone please tell me why there has been such a big uproar/outcry against the pay-to-post proposal from Jason C.? Quality won’t automatically go down just because money is involved…
Zefrank just rocks! I had not heard of him before. (Call me out of it.) Thank you for the tip.
Zefrank just rocks! I had not heard of him before. (Call me out of it.) Thank you for the tip.
Have you seen Rabbit Bites?
I prefer that show to Seinfeld, myself
I think they’re walking up the Bunny Tail.
Have you seen Rabbit Bites?
I prefer that show to Seinfeld, myself
I think they’re walking up the Bunny Tail.
@42 We have a winner! Brooke hits the nail on the head! And whaddya know? Someone that actually knows what quality entertainment is telling geeks what works and what doesn’t. It seems podcasting geeks think the medium is the product people will want to buy.
“But it’s a PODCAST!!! A PODCAST!!!, Man!!! Nevermind what it contains!!! IT’S A PODCAST!!!!”
@42 We have a winner! Brooke hits the nail on the head! And whaddya know? Someone that actually knows what quality entertainment is telling geeks what works and what doesn’t. It seems podcasting geeks think the medium is the product people will want to buy.
“But it’s a PODCAST!!! A PODCAST!!!, Man!!! Nevermind what it contains!!! IT’S A PODCAST!!!!”
Brooke and LayZ: I hate Seinfeld, so I’m not a good judge of that!
Brooke and LayZ: I hate Seinfeld, so I’m not a good judge of that!
1) There’s competition at the head. The appeal of the long tail isn’t getting super-rich, it’s about being able to be competitive enough to get enough revenue to exist without having the outlay of trying to start at the top. When you’re supplying a niche product to a niche audience, you can be at the head of that part of the tail. Rather than thinking of it as a single tail, think of it as a tree structure.
2) Money influences how things will be presented by those people who are paid. A great example for those familiar with Slashdot is Roland Piquepaille. He blogs about tech-related topics, then submits his blog as the article. He pushes traffic to his blog (which has advertising on it), and provides links from there to the actual articles. While he’s not paid by Slashdot, there’s no reason to believe that a paid Digger won’t be more easily corrupted into similar traffic-pushing techniques.
1) There’s competition at the head. The appeal of the long tail isn’t getting super-rich, it’s about being able to be competitive enough to get enough revenue to exist without having the outlay of trying to start at the top. When you’re supplying a niche product to a niche audience, you can be at the head of that part of the tail. Rather than thinking of it as a single tail, think of it as a tree structure.
2) Money influences how things will be presented by those people who are paid. A great example for those familiar with Slashdot is Roland Piquepaille. He blogs about tech-related topics, then submits his blog as the article. He pushes traffic to his blog (which has advertising on it), and provides links from there to the actual articles. While he’s not paid by Slashdot, there’s no reason to believe that a paid Digger won’t be more easily corrupted into similar traffic-pushing techniques.
Just let me know when someone videobloggs, YouTubes, or streams anything as good as a Seinfeld episode.
Only when they start employing scripters and WGA-quality types, will that ever click in. I have noticed, that it be all “Producers” and “talent”, so something missing.
Not that the Fall Season is looking much better. CBS and Fox are weakest, imho, Fox with 3 chord songs, twice. CBS is totally insipid. NBC strongest, but all too similar, ABC heavy on comedy…but with
very weak Drama…
Tho Eurkea be amusing, has some life, if SciFi geeky styled. ‘Honey I Blew Up the TV Show’ crossed with ‘Mayberry RFD’. But my winning pick is on ‘Jericho’, not even global thermonuclear war can crumble those Walls, my prediction at least. It’s gonna be fun watching the ‘Studio 60′ and ’30 Rock’ wars, and ‘The Nine’, ‘Six Degrees’ and ‘The Class’ warfare. ‘Heroes’ is such a 4400 ripoff. And ’20 Good Years’ will be Gone in 20 Seconds. Generally tho, I am with Tim Goodman, not on all, but most.
Tho some returning goodie hits….LOST, Battlestar, 4400, The Unit, Rescue Me, Earl, Prison Break and Blade…
Just let me know when someone videobloggs, YouTubes, or streams anything as good as a Seinfeld episode.
Only when they start employing scripters and WGA-quality types, will that ever click in. I have noticed, that it be all “Producers” and “talent”, so something missing.
Not that the Fall Season is looking much better. CBS and Fox are weakest, imho, Fox with 3 chord songs, twice. CBS is totally insipid. NBC strongest, but all too similar, ABC heavy on comedy…but with
very weak Drama…
Tho Eurkea be amusing, has some life, if SciFi geeky styled. ‘Honey I Blew Up the TV Show’ crossed with ‘Mayberry RFD’. But my winning pick is on ‘Jericho’, not even global thermonuclear war can crumble those Walls, my prediction at least. It’s gonna be fun watching the ‘Studio 60′ and ’30 Rock’ wars, and ‘The Nine’, ‘Six Degrees’ and ‘The Class’ warfare. ‘Heroes’ is such a 4400 ripoff. And ’20 Good Years’ will be Gone in 20 Seconds. Generally tho, I am with Tim Goodman, not on all, but most.
Tho some returning goodie hits….LOST, Battlestar, 4400, The Unit, Rescue Me, Earl, Prison Break and Blade…
Hey Robert, I think you’re overlooking a significant point. Sure, there is the broad-sweep popularity thing. But the Web environment also improves coverage for niche stuff. Another dimension to the long tail.
Someone may not be in the top 10,000 blogs, but they might have the most popular 3-legged dog blog. For fans of three-legged dogs that will be highly important.
Old media is what the head looks like: mass appeal = lowest common denominator. Do you really want to be there?
Hey Robert, I think you’re overlooking a significant point. Sure, there is the broad-sweep popularity thing. But the Web environment also improves coverage for niche stuff. Another dimension to the long tail.
Someone may not be in the top 10,000 blogs, but they might have the most popular 3-legged dog blog. For fans of three-legged dogs that will be highly important.
Old media is what the head looks like: mass appeal = lowest common denominator. Do you really want to be there?
Robert, therein will lie your dilemna. Not being able to judge something that could be insanely popular. If you go simply on your personal tastes you might make some very costly decisions. I hate rap music but I recognize good rap talent when I hear it.
Danny, I would think he would want to be where the money is.
Robert, therein will lie your dilemna. Not being able to judge something that could be insanely popular. If you go simply on your personal tastes you might make some very costly decisions. I hate rap music but I recognize good rap talent when I hear it.
Danny, I would think he would want to be where the money is.
LayZ: there’s a lot of money in the long tail.
As to popular, oh, I watch my share of popular stuff too. Keep in mind that I’m separating out my own interests from those that the market is telling me about. For instance, I sense that online cooking shows will be extremely popular, even though I’m really not that interested in the topic (albeit I love great food and presentation).
LayZ: there’s a lot of money in the long tail.
As to popular, oh, I watch my share of popular stuff too. Keep in mind that I’m separating out my own interests from those that the market is telling me about. For instance, I sense that online cooking shows will be extremely popular, even though I’m really not that interested in the topic (albeit I love great food and presentation).