McLaws is right on Windows Vista ship date

I’m sad to agree with Robert McLaws about Windows Vista’s ship schedule. This sucker is just not ready. Too many things are too slow and/or don’t work. I’ve been on the betas of every Windows OS since Windows 3.1 and Vista is starting to feel good, but it doesn’t feel good enough to release to the factory in October. It feels like it needs a good six more months than that, which would mean a mid-year release next year.

Some things that need to be fixed? UI issues (see Chris Pirillo). Speed/performance issues (unless it’ll only be run on super-fast new computers — I went back to XP on my Lenovo Tablet PC because Vista was sluggish and the drivers weren’t reliable). Application compatibility (I’m hearing that many apps are having problems). Driver compat (my Dell computer at Microsoft never worked completely, and a coworker called me a few days ago to ask “did you ever get the soundcard working?”)

Remember: no one will remember whether this thing slipped another few months IF it’s a good product when it comes out (remember Windows 2000? It slipped by years). But everyone will remember if this is a disaster (the community is still talking about Windows ME, which was a particularly horrible release).

If this ships in October, I will recommend not installing it and waiting for the first service pack. There’s no way the quality will be high enough to trust it if it ships early. I hope Microsoft takes the time to do this right.

If they don’t Apple will have far more market share at the end of 2007 than it will if Microsoft ships a great release.

Speaking of Apple, they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but that’d get me sued by Steve Jobs and I don’t need that kind of heck right now.

  • The Wikipedia Elightened

    “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!” – Jason

    That’s a load of crap. Windows NT is ONE VERSION no matter how many times MS “patches” it. If you look at it the way Jason does, the you’d have to say OS 9 is the same as OS X. Right?? XP is still version 5 of NT not 6!

    XP is version 5.1 of Win NT where as 2000 was version 5 originally… so Version 5 of Windows has been out since February 17, 2000.

    Version 10 of Mac OS has been out since March 24, 2001…

    But you could also make the argument that it is version 1 since it isnt based on the same code, right?

    According to wikipedia, the “[d]evelopment of Windows NT started in November 1988″. But the first release was in 1993. It had a horrible UI… the same as Windows 3.1

    Also according to wikipedia, “Mac OS X is based on the Mach kernel and the BSD implementation of Unix, which were incorporated into NEXTSTEP, the object-oriented operating system developed by Steve Jobs’s NeXT company after he left Apple in 1985.”
    NEXTSTEP had a very concise simple UI. Win NT 4 Megapixel 16-bit color graphics long after NExt step.

    BSD was a direct descendant of Bell Labs/MIT UNIX code that dates back to the 1960s.

  • The Wikipedia Elightened

    “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!” – Jason

    That’s a load of crap. Windows NT is ONE VERSION no matter how many times MS “patches” it. If you look at it the way Jason does, the you’d have to say OS 9 is the same as OS X. Right?? XP is still version 5 of NT not 6!

    XP is version 5.1 of Win NT where as 2000 was version 5 originally… so Version 5 of Windows has been out since February 17, 2000.

    Version 10 of Mac OS has been out since March 24, 2001…

    But you could also make the argument that it is version 1 since it isnt based on the same code, right?

    According to wikipedia, the “[d]evelopment of Windows NT started in November 1988″. But the first release was in 1993. It had a horrible UI… the same as Windows 3.1

    Also according to wikipedia, “Mac OS X is based on the Mach kernel and the BSD implementation of Unix, which were incorporated into NEXTSTEP, the object-oriented operating system developed by Steve Jobs’s NeXT company after he left Apple in 1985.”
    NEXTSTEP had a very concise simple UI. Win NT 4 Megapixel 16-bit color graphics long after NExt step.

    BSD was a direct descendant of Bell Labs/MIT UNIX code that dates back to the 1960s.

  • Kvocal

    Of the 85 posts only 15 mention Apple. Why is that when Vista is a hack of OS X.

  • Molly C

    “MSFT had a chance to re-work the OS and put it on top of a BSD or a LINUX kernel. They chose to stay proprietary instead. The customers will continue to pay a price for that decsion. ”

    TomB, how old are you, twelve?
    Where’d you get the idea that *nix is the be-all and end-all, and can’t be surpassed?

    I thought it was sad that Apple abandoned its attempt at its own modern OS design in favor of yet another *nix, since it meant that every desktop OS is either NT-derived or has a *nix core. I liked that Apple had a unique design with Classic Mac OS, and it’s too bad they failed when trying modernize it.

    Anyway, I don’t think *every* OS should to be *nix. Unless you want OS design to stagnate.

  • Kvocal

    Of the 85 posts only 15 mention Apple. Why is that when Vista is a hack of OS X.

  • Molly C

    “MSFT had a chance to re-work the OS and put it on top of a BSD or a LINUX kernel. They chose to stay proprietary instead. The customers will continue to pay a price for that decsion. ”

    TomB, how old are you, twelve?
    Where’d you get the idea that *nix is the be-all and end-all, and can’t be surpassed?

    I thought it was sad that Apple abandoned its attempt at its own modern OS design in favor of yet another *nix, since it meant that every desktop OS is either NT-derived or has a *nix core. I liked that Apple had a unique design with Classic Mac OS, and it’s too bad they failed when trying modernize it.

    Anyway, I don’t think *every* OS should to be *nix. Unless you want OS design to stagnate.

  • Molly C

    Now, as for Scoble’s issues:

    I read Chris Pirillo’s “UI issues”, almost all of which are so minor and I don’t even agree with many of his complaints to begin with. I wouldn’t hold up a release for those things.

    Performance – yes, if perfomance is lacking in October, then Microsoft should delay and do another beta. But the latest build is much faster than beta2 was. I say wait until October to make the call, not make the call right now, particularly those that have no inside info (anymore).

    Drivers: Of course, if the drivers aren’t ready, then delay. But that’s not a six month issue; please…

    My feeling is that the latest build is miles better than beta2 was, and if improvements continue at that rate, then Vista may very well be ready in October. It’s too soon to make a definitive declaration at this point.

    I also say that you have to ship sometime. One can always make an argument to wait six more months. Microsoft can keep delaying six months for the next five years, and there’d still be calls to wait six more months. You have to ship sooner or later; there’s always SP1 to address nagging issues.

    Let’s see where things stand in October. I don’t think most here (including Scoble) are in any position to make a solid prediction on that.

  • Molly C

    Now, as for Scoble’s issues:

    I read Chris Pirillo’s “UI issues”, almost all of which are so minor and I don’t even agree with many of his complaints to begin with. I wouldn’t hold up a release for those things.

    Performance – yes, if perfomance is lacking in October, then Microsoft should delay and do another beta. But the latest build is much faster than beta2 was. I say wait until October to make the call, not make the call right now, particularly those that have no inside info (anymore).

    Drivers: Of course, if the drivers aren’t ready, then delay. But that’s not a six month issue; please…

    My feeling is that the latest build is miles better than beta2 was, and if improvements continue at that rate, then Vista may very well be ready in October. It’s too soon to make a definitive declaration at this point.

    I also say that you have to ship sometime. One can always make an argument to wait six more months. Microsoft can keep delaying six months for the next five years, and there’d still be calls to wait six more months. You have to ship sooner or later; there’s always SP1 to address nagging issues.

    Let’s see where things stand in October. I don’t think most here (including Scoble) are in any position to make a solid prediction on that.

  • Thomas Lee

    Vista is simply not ready. What is sad is that MS is closing down bugs (as opposed to fixing them) in order to get this puppy out of the door.

    My main on the go 3g card (a vodaphone data card) does not work with Vista. It was simply closed today with no work around!

    My mail/news client, Turnpike, does not work under vista. The app-compat bug was closed today (no work around)

    Oh – and in Xp and earlier, you could drag an object from explorer into a cmd prompt and get the full path dropped into cmd.exe. This too is broken and has been closed as “will not fix”.

    Vista needs a Beta 3.

  • Thomas Lee

    Vista is simply not ready. What is sad is that MS is closing down bugs (as opposed to fixing them) in order to get this puppy out of the door.

    My main on the go 3g card (a vodaphone data card) does not work with Vista. It was simply closed today with no work around!

    My mail/news client, Turnpike, does not work under vista. The app-compat bug was closed today (no work around)

    Oh – and in Xp and earlier, you could drag an object from explorer into a cmd prompt and get the full path dropped into cmd.exe. This too is broken and has been closed as “will not fix”.

    Vista needs a Beta 3.

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  • Rail

    scobleizer, you’re not a Microsoft developer, you’re not working on Windows Vista team, so you don’t know how the Windows Vista development is going. So please shut up your mouth!

  • Rail

    scobleizer, you’re not a Microsoft developer, you’re not working on Windows Vista team, so you don’t know how the Windows Vista development is going. So please shut up your mouth!

  • giacomo

    La notizia di un possibile slittamento di Vista è inesistente. Quelli sono solo articoli tratti da dei blog di utenti qualsiasi che non hanno nulla a che fare com Microsoft, non fanno parte dello sviluppo e quindi non possono sapere come procede e se sono in difficoltà o meno. Ancora una volta si fa tanta disinformazione.
    Per la cronaca io la beta di Vista l’ho provata e non vedo così tanti problemi come dicono.. anzi è più veloce di XP e parecchio stabile su un PC di 5 anni fa!

  • Rail

    La notizia di un possibile slittamento di Vista è inesistente. Quelli sono solo articoli tratti da dei blog di utenti qualsiasi che non hanno nulla a che fare com Microsoft, non fanno parte dello sviluppo e quindi non possono sapere come procede e se sono in difficoltà o meno. Ancora una volta si fa tanta disinformazione.
    Per la cronaca io la beta di Vista l’ho provata e non vedo così tanti problemi come dicono.. anzi è più veloce di XP e parecchio stabile su un PC di 5 anni fa!

  • Rail

    La notizia di un possibile slittamento di Vista è inesistente. Quelli sono solo articoli tratti da dei blog di utenti qualsiasi che non hanno nulla a che fare com Microsoft, non fanno parte dello sviluppo e quindi non possono sapere come procede e se sono in difficoltà o meno. Ancora una volta si fa tanta disinformazione.
    Per la cronaca io la beta di Vista l’ho provata e non vedo così tanti problemi come dicono.. anzi è più veloce di XP e parecchio stabile su un PC di 5 anni fa!

  • giacomo

    La notizia di un possibile slittamento di Vista è inesistente. Quelli sono solo articoli tratti da dei blog di utenti qualsiasi che non hanno nulla a che fare com Microsoft, non fanno parte dello sviluppo e quindi non possono sapere come procede e se sono in difficoltà o meno. Ancora una volta si fa tanta disinformazione.
    Per la cronaca io la beta di Vista l’ho provata e non vedo così tanti problemi come dicono.. anzi è più veloce di XP e parecchio stabile su un PC di 5 anni fa!

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  • http://www.aplus.co.yu/ Aleksandar

    You…devil!

    I’m just going through reviews and reviews, loking for the monitor to buy. Just when I decided on a compromise, you say this about number of Apple products to be annouced, then MacRumors adds that it might be new displays (I hope with HDCP) and I’m faced with terrible dilema: buy now or wait next week – and I have just 2 days shopping window next week (2 days left in UK and then go back to home country where monitors are very pricey).

    Arrgh!

  • http://www.aplus.co.yu/ Aleksandar

    You…devil!

    I’m just going through reviews and reviews, loking for the monitor to buy. Just when I decided on a compromise, you say this about number of Apple products to be annouced, then MacRumors adds that it might be new displays (I hope with HDCP) and I’m faced with terrible dilema: buy now or wait next week – and I have just 2 days shopping window next week (2 days left in UK and then go back to home country where monitors are very pricey).

    Arrgh!

  • gctwnl

    Molly C: Just one small comment: Apple supports only two major revisions concurrently. So, currently, 10.3 and 10.4 are supported (get security updates etc.) and 10.2 and earlier are not. Hence, when 10.5 appears, staying at 10.3 will potentially make your situation slowly less secure as new holes are found and not plugged.

  • gctwnl

    Molly C: Just one small comment: Apple supports only two major revisions concurrently. So, currently, 10.3 and 10.4 are supported (get security updates etc.) and 10.2 and earlier are not. Hence, when 10.5 appears, staying at 10.3 will potentially make your situation slowly less secure as new holes are found and not plugged.

  • http://sudhakar.wordpress.com/ sudhakar

    I wonder how come this winsupersite guy gets so much excited about windows vista and gives almost 5 star rating?

    I tried windows vista on my laptop (infact very slow HDD and ATI 64MB graphics card) and everything worked very fine.

  • http://sudhakar.wordpress.com/ sudhakar

    I wonder how come this winsupersite guy gets so much excited about windows vista and gives almost 5 star rating?

    I tried windows vista on my laptop (infact very slow HDD and ATI 64MB graphics card) and everything worked very fine.

  • JHG

    RAID 0 on comment 49 writes: “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    OS X is a major rewrite of OS 9. Sorry you missed one of the most successful and technologically impressive transitions ever accomplished.

  • JHG

    RAID 0 on comment 49 writes: “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    OS X is a major rewrite of OS 9. Sorry you missed one of the most successful and technologically impressive transitions ever accomplished.

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  • Darby

    “That’s why Mac OS X 10.5 will be out soon. Think of all the different versions of OS X that have come out while Microsoft can’t get Vista right.”

    Well, there’s a good reason for this: Apple has to do much much much much less QC work on OS X releases than MS does. Apple knows what hardware will be running it’s OS, it built the hardware. MS has to account for about 1,000,000×10^10 (slightly exaggerated) different setups. This is a major reason Apple has continued to pair its OS with its machines exclusively. I’ve even heard that once upon a time MS didn’t want to bother developing a GUI for PCs so asked Apple to develop the Mac OS for PCs (pre-Windows) but Apple also didn’t want to bother with it =) If you know what’s running your software it’s easier to make leaner software.

    In response to someone elses comment about using a GPU to render the UI, it’s not that costly. And I do believe OS X uses OpenGL to render pretty much everything on screen: http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/quartzextreme/

  • Darby

    “That’s why Mac OS X 10.5 will be out soon. Think of all the different versions of OS X that have come out while Microsoft can’t get Vista right.”

    Well, there’s a good reason for this: Apple has to do much much much much less QC work on OS X releases than MS does. Apple knows what hardware will be running it’s OS, it built the hardware. MS has to account for about 1,000,000×10^10 (slightly exaggerated) different setups. This is a major reason Apple has continued to pair its OS with its machines exclusively. I’ve even heard that once upon a time MS didn’t want to bother developing a GUI for PCs so asked Apple to develop the Mac OS for PCs (pre-Windows) but Apple also didn’t want to bother with it =) If you know what’s running your software it’s easier to make leaner software.

    In response to someone elses comment about using a GPU to render the UI, it’s not that costly. And I do believe OS X uses OpenGL to render pretty much everything on screen: http://www.apple.com/macosx/features/quartzextreme/

  • Darby

    Comment #49: “I hate how people compare OS X to XP and Vista. I see people typing things like.. “That’s why Mac OS X 10.5 will be out soon. Think of all the different versions of OS X that have come out while Microsoft can’t get Vista right.”

    That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP… congratulations on stating the obvious. While I am somewhat upset at having to pay 70 some dollars every year to year and a half to upgrade my OS X, I am not upset at the continued development and the near constant improvements functionality and speedwise to the OS.

    I’d rather that than wait a number of years for an update that (so far) sounds like it will force anyone running a computer more than a year or two old to upgrade and then may even slow your workrate down. The reason you’re thinking Vista is such a big jump forward (and it is in most regards) is because it’s the first one in a while…. by the way, is MS going to get rid of that idiotic Home/Professional distinction in Vista? =/

  • Darby

    Comment #49: “I hate how people compare OS X to XP and Vista. I see people typing things like.. “That’s why Mac OS X 10.5 will be out soon. Think of all the different versions of OS X that have come out while Microsoft can’t get Vista right.”

    That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP… congratulations on stating the obvious. While I am somewhat upset at having to pay 70 some dollars every year to year and a half to upgrade my OS X, I am not upset at the continued development and the near constant improvements functionality and speedwise to the OS.

    I’d rather that than wait a number of years for an update that (so far) sounds like it will force anyone running a computer more than a year or two old to upgrade and then may even slow your workrate down. The reason you’re thinking Vista is such a big jump forward (and it is in most regards) is because it’s the first one in a while…. by the way, is MS going to get rid of that idiotic Home/Professional distinction in Vista? =/

  • A smug mac user

    RAID 0 on comment 49 writes: “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    Each version of OX X are very different OSes. Even security issues are different. Features continue to improve with each version. There was no feature change from SP1 to Sp2

  • A smug mac user

    RAID 0 on comment 49 writes: “That’s a load crap. OS X is ONE VERSION no matter how many times Apple “patches” it. If you look at it the way Cody does, then you’d have to say SP1 and SP2 are different versions of XP. RIGHT?? OS X 10.5 is still ver 10! NOT 11!”

    Each version of OX X are very different OSes. Even security issues are different. Features continue to improve with each version. There was no feature change from SP1 to Sp2

  • http://www.apple.com/store SteveJ


    OS X is a major rewrite of OS 9. Sorry you missed one of the most successful and technologically impressive transitions ever accomplished.

    Comment by JHG — August 3, 2006 @ 9:12 am

    Actually – it is a major rewrite of the os9 api’s ( carbon ) and a major revision to the OpenStep operating system.
    It is NOT os9. But it is a set of cleaned up os9

  • http://www.apple.com/store SteveJ


    OS X is a major rewrite of OS 9. Sorry you missed one of the most successful and technologically impressive transitions ever accomplished.

    Comment by JHG — August 3, 2006 @ 9:12 am

    Actually – it is a major rewrite of the os9 api’s ( carbon ) and a major revision to the OpenStep operating system.
    It is NOT os9. But it is a set of cleaned up os9

  • henk

    I’m back to mac, totally. The 64 bit OSX will scream on the new hardware. Windows got too fat, other cores are far more efficient from MacosX to Linux… Maybe they should just do a 64-bit DOS, with Office on top… Maybe they should develop a Vista skin for Linux. Or maybe they should do somethingreally new instead of going after the Ipod… Maybe it’s too late. Maybe that’s why Bill Gates is jumping ship…

  • henk

    I’m back to mac, totally. The 64 bit OSX will scream on the new hardware. Windows got too fat, other cores are far more efficient from MacosX to Linux… Maybe they should just do a 64-bit DOS, with Office on top… Maybe they should develop a Vista skin for Linux. Or maybe they should do somethingreally new instead of going after the Ipod… Maybe it’s too late. Maybe that’s why Bill Gates is jumping ship…

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  • http://applemac.wordpress.com/ RyanC

    @Darby: “…. by the way, is MS going to get rid of that idiotic Home/Professional distinction in Vista? =/”

    I’m afraid not, there will be five versions of Vista: Business, Enterprise, Home Premium, Home Basic and Ultimate.

    http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/getready/editions/default.mspx

  • http://applemac.wordpress.com/ RyanC

    @Darby: “…. by the way, is MS going to get rid of that idiotic Home/Professional distinction in Vista? =/”

    I’m afraid not, there will be five versions of Vista: Business, Enterprise, Home Premium, Home Basic and Ultimate.

    http://www.microsoft.com/windowsvista/getready/editions/default.mspx

  • AndyK

    Karim,

    Unreal Tournament under OSX was never finished. It was a preview release or beta. On my G3 UT ran pretty good under OS9 but OSX was painful.

  • AndyK

    Karim,

    Unreal Tournament under OSX was never finished. It was a preview release or beta. On my G3 UT ran pretty good under OS9 but OSX was painful.

  • skippy

    I’m in the very odd minority on this one. 5 years ago I turned Apple fanboy, and I’ve been using everything but windows since then. I’m back to working in a windows shop again, and have had the opportunity to run Vista. I’ve got the July CTP running on my thinkpad, which only has a 2GHz P-M although it does have a 256MB graphics card. Vista runs great. It looks great, mostly stable, and functionally they’ve added all the bells and whistles you could ever want. I’m actually really excited about Vista I think it’s going to be a stellar os.

    That being said I agree with one of the first comments – why doesn’t MS do another ‘research OS’ like singularity for desktops? Put some of their ace programmers on the job of coding up a new OS from scratch. Nix all the legacy crap that bloats the NT kernel, write it for new systems and release it as such.

  • skippy

    I’m in the very odd minority on this one. 5 years ago I turned Apple fanboy, and I’ve been using everything but windows since then. I’m back to working in a windows shop again, and have had the opportunity to run Vista. I’ve got the July CTP running on my thinkpad, which only has a 2GHz P-M although it does have a 256MB graphics card. Vista runs great. It looks great, mostly stable, and functionally they’ve added all the bells and whistles you could ever want. I’m actually really excited about Vista I think it’s going to be a stellar os.

    That being said I agree with one of the first comments – why doesn’t MS do another ‘research OS’ like singularity for desktops? Put some of their ace programmers on the job of coding up a new OS from scratch. Nix all the legacy crap that bloats the NT kernel, write it for new systems and release it as such.

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