Does Kiko predict more Web 2.0 failures?

by on August 17, 2006

I was reading Don Dodge, former executive from Alta Vista. He’s seen his share of failure so I always learn something from him. Anyway, he links to an interesting analysis of why Kiko (a Web-based calendar) failed.

Heck, I’m nearly being forced to use Google Calendar and I really really really hate it (sorry, I’m an Outlook addict). If Google can’t get me excited about its calendar there’s no way that I’ll use a calendar from a company I’ve never heard of, don’t trust. Sorry. That’s the entrepreneur’s challenge. Google can win me over just by sheer momentum. Translation: my boss will say “you vil use Google and you vil like it.”

Actually I’m making Google sound worse than it is, but I need a calendar that synchs with my SmartPhone, that lets me work offline, etc.

A friend who works at Google says that they aren’t even using Google calendar internally right now. I hear that Google’s employees hate the Oracle-based solution they are currently using, but that Google Calendar needs more work to be usable for an enterprise.

I can tell you that is true. I’m using two calendars. One in Outlook, one in Google. Why? Cause the rest of the company is on Google.

Anyway, back to the headline. Does it predict more failures?

Yes.

There are simply too many companies chasing too few users.

I can not keep up with the flow in my email box. I’ll share some of that with you real soon.

Getting the cool kids to try your technology isn’t the same thing as having a long-term business proposition.

It’s my challenge too. If I don’t get an audience and keep it I’ll be laying myself off someday after our VC money runs out (that’s what I did last time the bubble burst).

Onward.

Note: some of these things will win. That’s why we all play the game. Google survived the last bubble&burst. Who’ll do that next time? Not Kiko.

  • I think the main reason Kiko failed was impatience.

    Impatience by investors not letting the market for Web-based apps mature.

    I wrote a post about this. The apps out there are so rudimentary that we're still in the feature checklist stage that we saw with word processors in the 1980s.

    Having an ecosystem of competing apps ensures that new features are tested out, dropped, or shared around.

    But it takes *time*. And I get the sense that we're accelerating again; that there's no room for the 'two people who whipped up an app over the weekend' and who'll wait to see what happens.

    Keep killing off the geese and eventually you'll kill the golden one, too.
  • Christopher Coulter
    Ok, then, I agree...

    think that a hi-rez video is the “killer” and most necessary feature.

    Yeah, funny that. I hear this endless shop-talk all the time with these supposed cutting-edge Videographers, never mind that seemingly no one cares or can play such high-res back. This from the 'shoot-6-hours have-no-plan, fix-it-in-editing' types. And I am not against a good look, 24P rocks my world, but the writing, the content is still king.
  • Goebbels
    Christopher, last I read Scoble is using iMovie not FCP.

    And my cheap comment has less to do with spending and more to do with lack of expertise and solid business practices. Experts know what the best tools are and use them. Good business practices tells you that you get a return on your investment. Amateurs on the other hand don't know what the good tools are and woulden't know how to use them to their advantage anyway and think that a hi-rez video is the "killer" and most necessary feature.
  • It will be nice when the day comes that every person with an Internet connection has a chunk of remote, encrypted web space they can use to host apps, store data etc.

    Until then relying on some third party that doesn't have a sustainable business model, to host your all important data, is plain crazy stuff.

    I touched briefly on this in my comment to this blog post http://libraryclips.blogsome.com/2006/08/03/sur... with relation to my product, Surfulater. I'll keep my important information where I can touch it, secure it and back it up, thank you very much. I don't think the Web 2.0 folks get this.
  • Yeah, don't tell our VCs about the crazy whiskey parties we're gonna have over in Half Moon Bay! :-)
  • Christopher Coulter
    is too cheap to use anything but free Google apps and bundled software on their laptops.

    They aren't too cheap (Final Cut Pro is not a cheap app), it's just you need that APPEARANCE of being frugal -- just read between the lines here.
  • Mike: Outlook was developed before the Web took off. By the way, you do remember why AJAX was invented, don't you? To do a Web-based version of Outlook.

    But, yeah, now that I'm cross-platform (most businesses only care about Windows) Google Calendar will be better for me but I still hate it.
  • So sad. Awesome product
  • You'll love Google Calendar w/your Mac :D

    Because they both support standards and can communicate unlike Outlook whose engineers must have recieved orders from the top to remain non-standardized.

    Here's an example of cool ways you can share your events. Click on it from your Mac. webcal://feeds.technorati.com/events/http://epe...
  • An excellent, and ominous, post. It's easy to forget all the failures and point to the handful of success stories. Ironically many successes (most?) came from nowhere to be the next big thing. Myspace and Google come to mind.
  • Karim
    I would predict a failure for Podtech.net based on the fact that the company got VC millions but is too cheap to use anything but free Google apps and bundled software on their laptops.

    I wouldn't call it a predictor of death so much as, ah... an area of concern. Like coughing up blood. Something you might want to have checked out. ;-)
  • Like you Robert if the calendar won't sync with my windows mobile device then i really can't see myself using it unless it was amazingly cool and even then I'd have doubts.
  • Hi Robert, thanks again but seems none of the Don Dodge URL's are working??!

    -
    Regards,
    Mehul Patel
    MD & CEO
    KIPL.Net - Digital Services
    URL: http://www.KIPL.Net

    http://www.mozomo.com – Coming soon to a WAP Browser near you :)

    'e–magination is more important then knowledge'
  • Alan,

    Your right, it's just my opinion about their business model. The fact remains, they failed, which should indicate a lack of something, a realistic business model maybe.

    I don't know, I just don't see how anyone could possibly make money with a calendar when you have Google giving it away. I can't see a value-add where someone would pay for it.

    It will be interesting to see if anyone picks it up off of eBay. It seems like a strange place to dump something if it had any real value.
  • It's a shame, Kiko was one of the better online calendar apps available. Unfortunately GCal took it down because of the gmail integration... Kiko could have been great if they had a business model.
  • Robert, Maybe you should to talk to David Biesel, the VC who hosted Kiko at the Boston Web innovators conference back when..I was there, and I dissagree with the opinion that they did not have a business model; indeed they had many good ideas, but probably not enough liquidity to endure.

    I might track them down and do a vlog entry on the story behinf the story.
  • James Brown
    For those interested in syncing Google Calendar with Outlook, I use http://sourceforge.net/projects/remotecalendars/ which seems to work pretty seamlessly.
  • I finally figured the secret to getting all my calendars to synchronize using Outlook, and open source software (Funambol).

    I wrote up a guide on how to do it.
  • I rather gofor outlook, since my pda is bundled with microsoft activesync. i dont have to rely on any of the webapps. But still i had thought of ms coming up with a ajax based webcalendar.. Fingers Crossed
  • Just stumbled on a blog using web based calendar Trubma: http://www.trumba.com

    Appears to sync with Outlook. Haven't tried it, but it looks promising on the surface. Per the site:

    About Trumba Corporation

    Trumba was founded by CEO Jeremy Jaech, VP of Product Development Ted Johnson, and Chief Software Architect Peter Mullen in late 2003. Previously, this team co-founded Visio (acquired by Microsoft in 2000) and were key developers of Aldus PageMaker (where Jaech was one of the original founders); Aldus was acquired by Adobe in 1997. Another founding member of the management team is Clyde McQueen, previously from Aldus and most recently with Amazon.com, who is managing the software development group.
  • Robert, the link from Don Dodge points out something very obvious with some of the junk in so-called Web 2.0, these companies and Kiko in particular are producing a feature not a product.

    Kiko failed because they were just a calendar and nothing else. A calendar should be a feature of a suite like in 37Signals Basecamp.

    The example of Kiko shows lack of planning with no business model. How can a calendar ever generate revenue unless you plaster ads all over the place, which no one wants to see. I think we will see other Kikos, they will have the same root problem, no plan, no business model and no way to become profitable.
  • Robert ... want to sync your Google Calendar with Outlook (and thus, your Smartphone)?

    http://sourceforge.net/projects/remotecalendars

    It's a little clunky, but once you have it set up, it just works.
  • I think Kiko was an interesting stab at the problem but ultimately it simply wasn't "insanely great" enough to beat the odds. I don't think their failure is a sign of any collapse. Merely that web software now has to be truly amazing or truly unique (is there a difference?) if it's going to succeed. Kiko was, by my recollection, plagued with the kinds of usability bugs caused by "too many features, too fast." If they'd started with more of a BaseCamp style mentality who knows how things would have gone.
  • web two dot zero is going to be internet bubble two dot zero. it is also hype two dot zero.

    the two dot zero movement does not notice that it is marketing tool instead of devolopement tool. some things that work and others do not.

    the majority of the people follow fashion. some parts will be like that people will keep on use and it other parts disapears.

    conclusion:
    the web evolves. you can not number it like software.

    this rises an question hom many people download the newest software. they use do they realy look at develope number or just notice there is new version on web.

    how many do know the developement number ms windows vista? how many are just waiting for ms windows vista? if ms windows 6 was released would be know that is ms windows vista? remember there are more people who are not geeky.

    pheloxi waiting for the internet fad two dot zero.
  • I'm an outlook addict. Wud've loved if Windows Live Mail desktop beta's calendar was slick. Instead it links to the lame Hotmail/MSN caledar. I hope something like Windows Live Mail is coming for calendar as well.

    Anyone heard anything?
  • Troy Richardson
    Its ironic you are posting this story now. I sent you an email yesterday (yeah, Im sure you havent gotten to it yet).

    Kiko is For Sale on ebay:
    http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&a...

    50,000 for a failure? Im not sure about that. The seller does reference "Robert Scoble on Kiko" where you mention it in your blog.
  • Goebbels
    I would predict a failure for Podtech.net based on the fact that the company got VC millions but is too cheap to use anything but free Google apps and bundled software on their laptops.
  • Hm, is it just me or am I the only one who actually is a bit reluctant to store all my data on google's servers? Actually I wouldn't feel too god to put my business data on other people's server.

    I see the advantage of having a web based solution but I would rather use some standalone version which I can install on my own and have full control over.

    And regarding the web2.0 startups popping up (I guess in the meanwhile every inhabitant of the valley has one) I really wonder with many of them how they actually want to make money. This might be another reason not to put my stuff on it as I don't want it to be gone suddenly just because the startup collapsed (or they might start selling my content ;-) ).
  • shokk
    Internally we use Oracle, too, but with the fat client. I hate it - its only redeeming quality is that it syncs to my Treo. Thunderbird will sync with the treo too, but that only does address book entries and its Lightning calendar component is a long way off from being the Outlook killer they proposed.

    I want my Calendaring to be linked to something online like Google Calendar. Airset has the ability to take GC's XML output as a calendar source and it can alert you to appointments through SMS. They also have a desktop component that links into your handheld of choice for a direct sync. But then that interferes with myu ability to sync with Oracle. So like you I end up keeping two calendars, and invariably I forget to enter something in one of the other calendar system.

    For address books, consider Plaxo which works for both Outlook and Thunderbird and works well as a web service.

    And, yes, in all this you need to consider which of these services will actually be around in a year before you invest major time configuring it and setting yourself in its ways.
  • I don't think Kiko failed because they didn't have enough users, they failed because they didn't have a business model. These days most of the new web apps that are worth using and will stick around -charge- for their services.

    Correct me if I'm wrong but Kiko was a free application. I think adsense is a false prophet here for revenue. If you want to make a web app you can have a free version, but you better have a premium version to keep the thing going.
  • Matt Smith
    There is a google calendar syncing app which will sync with Outlook and it has a client for Symbian, Pocket PC etc to sync OTA. I believe it's called CompanionLink and think it costs $30 or so.
  • When the Windows deveolper framework was getting developed nobody gave a damn to what was going on.. today its literally the reason behind the growth of Micorosft... tomorrow Windows Live stuff is going to replicat this in the web world..

    ANy asi I always say... if you are looking for a job always looing into http://www.tekpool.com
  • Here's the thing about the tail. It doesn't predict that every tiny niche is viable. If you're an aggregator (like amazon) you can live off a giant inventory of small selling items. But if you're the author of a book that sells five copies a month, you better keep your day job. Doesn't mean it's not rewarding to write that book. But don't count on feeding your family from the royalties.
  • > There are simply too many companies chasing too few users.

    Too many companies chasing the *wrong* users. There are more than enough users to go around; we just have to give them what they want and let them find it. It's the Long Tail, as well you know!
  • Richard Tionary
    predict: To state, tell about, or make known in advance, especially on the basis of special knowledge.

    portend: To serve as an omen or a warning of; presage: black clouds that portend a storm.
  • I spent about a week checking out all the web-based calendars a few months back when I was kicking off our start-up. Kiko wasn't bad but I ended up using Airset for a while as it had Symbian phone syncing.

    For some reason they now seem to be only offering that to Verizon customers. Verizon's reach hasn't quite got to Cork yet!

    So I'm back on Outlook for Desktop calendar, Nokia PC suite to sync that to my N70 and Yahoo Intellisync to sync to Yahoo calendar. Not exactly slick but at least I have a calendar, contact list and to-do list, no matter where I am. Now if only Yahoo would give some Ajax love to their calendar.

    Without decent synchronisation to either a mobile devices or desktop, this flood of wannabe web-calendar apps are just nice toys so your family knows what you are up to. Kiko is just the first of many which will disappear as quickly as they appeared.
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