YouTube topic of the day

Everyone I met today asked me what I thought of YouTube’s rumor. The blogs certainly are lit up, which demonstrates well that if you get blogs to talk about you, it’s probably a pretty good predictor that other people are talking about the same thing too.

$1.6 billion. Whew. And all I got was a cool YouTube sticker for my tripod. Heheh.

Lots of people think Google is nuts for buying YouTube, if this rumor proves to be correct. I don’t. When you have an audience that large and that engaged you’ll be able to find a way to turn that into dollars. And, for someone like Google, it means more than that even. It means a way to keep it out of Yahoo’s and Microsoft’s hands.

Engineers always talk that way, though “I could build that in a week.” Bullshit, I answer. You might be able to clone the technology but you’ll never get the community to move.

Remember all the eBay competitors back in the late 1990s? I do. They almost always had better technology than eBay, but still failed. Why? This is a rock star business.

You can’t copy the Beatles. If you try you’ll be destined to play in high school auditoriums forever.

That’s why YouTube is worth the $1.6 billion. It’s the access to a group of people who won’t move anywhere else.

Comments

  1. And RAIN seems to indicate the value of the “long tail”. Thinks are different than the late 90′s. At least I would think you were smart enough to realize that. I thought the long tail basically said there is enough room for everybody? Or do you not believe that now?

  2. And RAIN seems to indicate the value of the “long tail”. Thinks are different than the late 90′s. At least I would think you were smart enough to realize that. I thought the long tail basically said there is enough room for everybody? Or do you not believe that now?

  3. I have to agree with Scoble that this move is more strategic and could potentially lock out Yahoo and Microsoft from the Video market.

    One thing though is that MySpace is a bigger content provider than YouTube and is profitable. Yahoo and Microsoft may still have a chance to get a foot in.

  4. I have to agree with Scoble that this move is more strategic and could potentially lock out Yahoo and Microsoft from the Video market.

    One thing though is that MySpace is a bigger content provider than YouTube and is profitable. Yahoo and Microsoft may still have a chance to get a foot in.

  5. “It’s the access to a group of people who won’t move anywhere else.”

    That’s the ticket! If you talk to “normal” peaople (the majority not envoloped in the 2.0 thing) they have heard of YouTube, but know nothing of YouTube competitor sites – not even names.

    YouTube IS the place for webvideo….brand, brand brand…

  6. “It’s the access to a group of people who won’t move anywhere else.”

    That’s the ticket! If you talk to “normal” peaople (the majority not envoloped in the 2.0 thing) they have heard of YouTube, but know nothing of YouTube competitor sites – not even names.

    YouTube IS the place for webvideo….brand, brand brand…

  7. doesn’t matter, illegal illegal illegal..content. just like Napster, when Napster was alive (in the 2000,2001 era) there wasn’t a competitor. its called illegal content and they will be sued.

  8. doesn’t matter, illegal illegal illegal..content. just like Napster, when Napster was alive (in the 2000,2001 era) there wasn’t a competitor. its called illegal content and they will be sued.

  9. Can a service like this make it past the fact they have a .us domain? I’m thinking the average person is going to go to Bluedot.com (and get a 404)? I’m not knocking their service, I’m honestly throwing the question out there. I know a few people (non-geeks)who can’t get past there not being an e in flickr.

  10. Can a service like this make it past the fact they have a .us domain? I’m thinking the average person is going to go to Bluedot.com (and get a 404)? I’m not knocking their service, I’m honestly throwing the question out there. I know a few people (non-geeks)who can’t get past there not being an e in flickr.

  11. When Google first started making waves I tried it and quickly became a diehard fan. Excellent search results, highly relevant, always zeroing in on just what I asked for. Not today. It’s very difficult to get the results I want and most important – it’s getting more difficult on Google than on other search engines. I’m opting for Google’s competitors more each day.

    The same will happen to YouTube (if it survives the RIAA, etc.). People flock because something new or better or cooler is offered but they stay only as long as it continues to serve them best, then they start to stray and finally leave.

    Your comparison to Ebay is way off the mark. A switch there isn’t about the best technology or the best approach. Ebay isn’t a free service that you can leisurely wander from at will – there are significant costs (time and money) associated with other choices. A Newbay involves coordinating sign-ups, credit cards, bank accounts, and emails… SIMULTANEOUS to managing existing ones with Ebay plus it involves financial risk with one or more new unknowns. Ebay is business – you go there to find things you need and to save (or make) money. It’s about the almighty buck.

    On the other hand, a NewTube would be at most a free account sign-up away. It’d be just another place we’d follow links to or channel surf when we were bored. There’d be no more cost to visiting a NewTube than there would be to sticking with YouTube – it’s just a different click. The technology, coolness, and newness would matter there. If a competitor rolls their own with just a little more wow then YouTube loses visitors and momentum. If they don’t react quick enough to regain it they won’t make it over the next hill.

  12. When Google first started making waves I tried it and quickly became a diehard fan. Excellent search results, highly relevant, always zeroing in on just what I asked for. Not today. It’s very difficult to get the results I want and most important – it’s getting more difficult on Google than on other search engines. I’m opting for Google’s competitors more each day.

    The same will happen to YouTube (if it survives the RIAA, etc.). People flock because something new or better or cooler is offered but they stay only as long as it continues to serve them best, then they start to stray and finally leave.

    Your comparison to Ebay is way off the mark. A switch there isn’t about the best technology or the best approach. Ebay isn’t a free service that you can leisurely wander from at will – there are significant costs (time and money) associated with other choices. A Newbay involves coordinating sign-ups, credit cards, bank accounts, and emails… SIMULTANEOUS to managing existing ones with Ebay plus it involves financial risk with one or more new unknowns. Ebay is business – you go there to find things you need and to save (or make) money. It’s about the almighty buck.

    On the other hand, a NewTube would be at most a free account sign-up away. It’d be just another place we’d follow links to or channel surf when we were bored. There’d be no more cost to visiting a NewTube than there would be to sticking with YouTube – it’s just a different click. The technology, coolness, and newness would matter there. If a competitor rolls their own with just a little more wow then YouTube loses visitors and momentum. If they don’t react quick enough to regain it they won’t make it over the next hill.

  13. @8 Dunno. Did Napster have competitors? We saw how well that worked out for everyone.

    Believe me, if Google does pull the trigger on this, then expect content lawsuits all around. Anyone wanna pay to download clips from TV shows and other copyrighted video content now on YouTube? (didn’t think so)

    Again, Mark Cuban is spot on..

    http://www.blogmaverick.com/2006/09/29/riddle-me-this-copyright-gurus/

    “Now all this so far presumes that Youtube qualifies for the safe harbor act. Personally, and Im not a lawyer, I dont think they do. To qualify, as I read it. They arent allowed to change the original file they host in any way. Well Youtube re encodes the video into the FLV format. On top of that, it progressive DOWNLOADS the content to your hard drive (thereby saving a ton on bandwidth for replays). So these issues may be moot, but if they are Youtube is going to be in a heap of hurt.

    But for the sake of example, lets go with Youtube being able to qualify for the DMCA Safe Harbor. Lets presume that there isnt going to be a rush to turn over user names and information or kick off anyone who has repetively uploaded any copyrighted materials that has received takedown notices.

    The two things I dont think will ever change is that big media companies want to control where there is content is seen, and how their content is monetized. They have absolutely no problem suing to gain that control or sicking the MPAA or RIAA or both on anyone or thing that threatens that control”

    But you all go on believing otherwise

  14. @8 Dunno. Did Napster have competitors? We saw how well that worked out for everyone.

    Believe me, if Google does pull the trigger on this, then expect content lawsuits all around. Anyone wanna pay to download clips from TV shows and other copyrighted video content now on YouTube? (didn’t think so)

    Again, Mark Cuban is spot on..

    http://www.blogmaverick.com/2006/09/29/riddle-me-this-copyright-gurus/

    “Now all this so far presumes that Youtube qualifies for the safe harbor act. Personally, and Im not a lawyer, I dont think they do. To qualify, as I read it. They arent allowed to change the original file they host in any way. Well Youtube re encodes the video into the FLV format. On top of that, it progressive DOWNLOADS the content to your hard drive (thereby saving a ton on bandwidth for replays). So these issues may be moot, but if they are Youtube is going to be in a heap of hurt.

    But for the sake of example, lets go with Youtube being able to qualify for the DMCA Safe Harbor. Lets presume that there isnt going to be a rush to turn over user names and information or kick off anyone who has repetively uploaded any copyrighted materials that has received takedown notices.

    The two things I dont think will ever change is that big media companies want to control where there is content is seen, and how their content is monetized. They have absolutely no problem suing to gain that control or sicking the MPAA or RIAA or both on anyone or thing that threatens that control”

    But you all go on believing otherwise

  15. I dont know, I just have a bad feeling that if Google buys YouTube they’ll destroy it by redoing it and placing it into a perpetual beta while removing all the good features…

  16. I dont know, I just have a bad feeling that if Google buys YouTube they’ll destroy it by redoing it and placing it into a perpetual beta while removing all the good features…

  17. Hmmm. Three weeks ago it was Google Video plus Apple equals world domination. Now it’s Google plus YouTube. What both rumors are true? Could get mighty interesting. Wanna play another round of Zune vs. iPod?

  18. Hmmm. Three weeks ago it was Google Video plus Apple equals world domination. Now it’s Google plus YouTube. What both rumors are true? Could get mighty interesting. Wanna play another round of Zune vs. iPod?

  19. group of people who won’t move anywhere else.

    People and markets are fickle, can always develop a better, newer community. The newest hottest thing now, can be yesterdays news in no time flat. And the fact of a few web oligarchies now, doesn’t mean it will always be that way. Can always outmarket, out-develop, out-community, and soon something new new (heck that’s a religion at Microsoft, Clay Christensen and all, tho they take it too far, with all the disruptive blather). As an example, Friendster thought they were the all, and then they got MySpaced out, and MySpace in time will get old and tired. The market is always in a constant state of flux, but $1.6 billion, bubble economics at work. I am with LayZ on matters legal, and oft times companies don’t survive cultural mergers…

    But boy, all them super-smarty tangled-Twizzler sticks, at Google getting outsmarted and outmarketed by YouTube (Google Video being a joke), that’s gotta royally hurt the Cultic Ego. Google HAD a good search engine at one time, then the blogs and the noise mushed it all up, works better in small controlled instances, News, Scholar and etc. And their ‘web apps’ are such jokes, that they make Microsoft look like Gods in comparison.

    But you did get one thing right, it’s not ever about the “code”, it’s about the experience and the community. Google Video feels dead and like some dry research project, YouTube is alive and vibrant, tho with wholly inane commenters, wisdom of the masses at work.

  20. group of people who won’t move anywhere else.

    People and markets are fickle, can always develop a better, newer community. The newest hottest thing now, can be yesterdays news in no time flat. And the fact of a few web oligarchies now, doesn’t mean it will always be that way. Can always outmarket, out-develop, out-community, and soon something new new (heck that’s a religion at Microsoft, Clay Christensen and all, tho they take it too far, with all the disruptive blather). As an example, Friendster thought they were the all, and then they got MySpaced out, and MySpace in time will get old and tired. The market is always in a constant state of flux, but $1.6 billion, bubble economics at work. I am with LayZ on matters legal, and oft times companies don’t survive cultural mergers…

    But boy, all them super-smarty tangled-Twizzler sticks, at Google getting outsmarted and outmarketed by YouTube (Google Video being a joke), that’s gotta royally hurt the Cultic Ego. Google HAD a good search engine at one time, then the blogs and the noise mushed it all up, works better in small controlled instances, News, Scholar and etc. And their ‘web apps’ are such jokes, that they make Microsoft look like Gods in comparison.

    But you did get one thing right, it’s not ever about the “code”, it’s about the experience and the community. Google Video feels dead and like some dry research project, YouTube is alive and vibrant, tho with wholly inane commenters, wisdom of the masses at work.

  21. Apart from the fact that MySpace is owned by Murdoch, MySpace is actually a bigger content provider and nothing users stop migrating to MySpace. MySpace has Social networking which is bound to keep users there.

    YouTube has no user lockin factor.

  22. Apart from the fact that MySpace is owned by Murdoch, MySpace is actually a bigger content provider and nothing users stop migrating to MySpace. MySpace has Social networking which is bound to keep users there.

    YouTube has no user lockin factor.

  23. Google pirks YouTube?

    Kamēr pie mums aktualitāte numur viens ir vēlēšanas (drīz iešu pats balsot, tad arī uzrakstīšu vairāk par šo tēmu), blogosfēras, it īpaši runājot par tech bloggeriem, galvenā bauma šobrīd ir par to, ka Google taisoties pirkt Yo…

  24. hey Scoble, I think you should admit that your wrong about YouTube. you my friend are not a Business man. never let a engineer run a engineering company :)

  25. hey Scoble, I think you should admit that your wrong about YouTube. you my friend are not a Business man. never let a engineer run a engineering company :)

  26. A few months ago MS stock took a big hit when MS announced they would increase R&D investment by 2 billion dollar over the next N years (I forget what N was). But Google spends .9 billion on MySpace advertising rights and 1.6 billion on YouTube (admitting that GoogleVideo is a failure, as are most Google efforts outside of search), with no projections as to when those investments will pay off, and that’s a GOOD thing?

    Google is reminding me of AOL in the late 90′s, when AOL was buying a bunch of stuff (Netscape, Time/Warner). Meanwhile their search engine gets worse and worse in comparison to Yahoo and MSN/Live (right now I think Yahoo gives the best results, and Live crushes Google on image searching). And they brag about having all these PHDs but seems that all they can do is buy other companies. I’m less and less impressed by Google each day.

  27. A few months ago MS stock took a big hit when MS announced they would increase R&D investment by 2 billion dollar over the next N years (I forget what N was). But Google spends .9 billion on MySpace advertising rights and 1.6 billion on YouTube (admitting that GoogleVideo is a failure, as are most Google efforts outside of search), with no projections as to when those investments will pay off, and that’s a GOOD thing?

    Google is reminding me of AOL in the late 90′s, when AOL was buying a bunch of stuff (Netscape, Time/Warner). Meanwhile their search engine gets worse and worse in comparison to Yahoo and MSN/Live (right now I think Yahoo gives the best results, and Live crushes Google on image searching). And they brag about having all these PHDs but seems that all they can do is buy other companies. I’m less and less impressed by Google each day.

  28. I have to wonder about YouTube as it does seem to be more of a repository of repurposed content than a place for originators to shine. That, and original content posted to YouTube becomes property of YouTube to exploit as they see fit. Finally, most are ignoring the fact that YouTube is bleeding money right now. Unless Google has a serious plan to take this flailing company and make it profitable, the buy is considerably flawed.

  29. I have to wonder about YouTube as it does seem to be more of a repository of repurposed content than a place for originators to shine. That, and original content posted to YouTube becomes property of YouTube to exploit as they see fit. Finally, most are ignoring the fact that YouTube is bleeding money right now. Unless Google has a serious plan to take this flailing company and make it profitable, the buy is considerably flawed.

  30. Scoble, the Google having loads of Ph.Ds don’t mean shyt, why? because it doesn’t mean shyt! NASA only had BS degree employees when they were building NASA. thats BS!. PH.Ds don’t mean shyt. its just for colleges to offer a product. if you can’t get where you want with a regular 4 year degree you won’t get it with a PH.D.

    sorry for this being a rant but Scoble, I’m going to delete you off my Feed if I hear any more of these idiotic posts.

  31. I am with you Pepe. That’s the curse of being a public company. I used to really like Google BEFORE they went public. As much as Sergey and Larry may try (if they do), the culture is gone and will never come back. Too bad :-(

  32. Scoble, the Google having loads of Ph.Ds don’t mean shyt, why? because it doesn’t mean shyt! NASA only had BS degree employees when they were building NASA. thats BS!. PH.Ds don’t mean shyt. its just for colleges to offer a product. if you can’t get where you want with a regular 4 year degree you won’t get it with a PH.D.

    sorry for this being a rant but Scoble, I’m going to delete you off my Feed if I hear any more of these idiotic posts.

  33. I am with you Pepe. That’s the curse of being a public company. I used to really like Google BEFORE they went public. As much as Sergey and Larry may try (if they do), the culture is gone and will never come back. Too bad :-(

  34. There’s been Google AdSense ads on YouTube off and on for a while now, so the crowd at Google already have an indication of potential profits from the site. They know what products or services the user base is interested in, how often they click, ad ROI, etc. ++ What better place on the internet to offer up those video ads next to the user generated ones? Imagine how many TV networks would kill to get their video ad for a network comedy show next to some of those silly videos??

    This isn’t a whim decision for Google. It’s a calculated business investment.

  35. There’s been Google AdSense ads on YouTube off and on for a while now, so the crowd at Google already have an indication of potential profits from the site. They know what products or services the user base is interested in, how often they click, ad ROI, etc. ++ What better place on the internet to offer up those video ads next to the user generated ones? Imagine how many TV networks would kill to get their video ad for a network comedy show next to some of those silly videos??

    This isn’t a whim decision for Google. It’s a calculated business investment.

  36. One nice thing about YouTube is that a site or blog can hose a YouTube video directly on site’s page, regardless of whether there’s any ads on the page or not. Will Google still allow such hosting of videos, when they drive zero adsense revenue?

  37. One nice thing about YouTube is that a site or blog can hose a YouTube video directly on site’s page, regardless of whether there’s any ads on the page or not. Will Google still allow such hosting of videos, when they drive zero adsense revenue?

  38. @21 well lets look at the photosharing business. While Flickr has all the cache, Photobucket is more popular from a hits perspetive. Hell, Yahoo Photos beats out Flickr. I guess the long tail doesn’t matter in the video space?

  39. @21 well lets look at the photosharing business. While Flickr has all the cache, Photobucket is more popular from a hits perspetive. Hell, Yahoo Photos beats out Flickr. I guess the long tail doesn’t matter in the video space?

  40. LayZ: is popularity really what matters? Not in business. Growth is what matters. After all, mini computers were once way more popular than personal computers. Cassette tape was once way more popular than DVDs. Etc. Etc. Etc.

  41. LayZ: is popularity really what matters? Not in business. Growth is what matters. After all, mini computers were once way more popular than personal computers. Cassette tape was once way more popular than DVDs. Etc. Etc. Etc.

  42. >
    I don’t agree with it. Back in 90s when I was used to using Netscape’s Navigator, Communicator and Search engine, all these new products (Google, IE, outlook) came out and me and almost everyone moved to them. If a better product comes out, people definietly move on..

  43. >
    I don’t agree with it. Back in 90s when I was used to using Netscape’s Navigator, Communicator and Search engine, all these new products (Google, IE, outlook) came out and me and almost everyone moved to them. If a better product comes out, people definietly move on..

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