2007 Predictions…

Alright, it isn’t even Thanksgiving yet, but what the heck? Got any good predictions? I don’t even remember what I predicted last year (they always are wrong so why bother looking back?) but, here’s my first:

Microsoft will issue a press release in February saying “Windows Vista is best selling operating system ever.” This will happen no matter what we say about it.

Comments

  1. Yay! Office 2007 First great office release in a while
    Yawn! Vista (great numbers though, do we have any choice? :)
    Boo! Zune, proof that bad DRM can kill a good idea cold.

  2. Yay! Office 2007 First great office release in a while
    Yawn! Vista (great numbers though, do we have any choice? :)
    Boo! Zune, proof that bad DRM can kill a good idea cold.

  3. My 2007 predictions:

    (1) Microsoft….

    Vista _will_ be the best-selling OS ever, since it’s pre-installed on virtually every new PC. However, it will also be the slowest adopted OS ever, since very few will upgrade.

    Office will be the opposite. It’s features make it a desirable upgrade for businesses. However, OpenOffice will continue to make inroads with personal users.

    Zune will be acknowleged as the most underwhelming product MS has ever made – and that’s saying alot.

    (2) Apple

    While many people will point out that iTV and iPhone have no unique features, both products – just like the iPod – will become big sellers.

    The Mac, aided by a new and smaller form factor, will grow to 8% of the US market. And yet, little world-wide market share gain happens.

    Oh, and one more thing… ;-)

    After setting new all time highs consistantly over the first 10 weeks of the year, the a 2:1 stock split happens yet again.

    (3) Scoble

    Sets a new personal high of using the ‘vlog’ term 142 times in a single day’s worth of posts on February 10th.

    While his vlog is widely acknowleged to be the second best on the entire planet, it never seems to quite make it to #1. There’s a good side to this though….

    He coins his new “byline” in April – “I vlog harder”.

  4. My 2007 predictions:

    (1) Microsoft….

    Vista _will_ be the best-selling OS ever, since it’s pre-installed on virtually every new PC. However, it will also be the slowest adopted OS ever, since very few will upgrade.

    Office will be the opposite. It’s features make it a desirable upgrade for businesses. However, OpenOffice will continue to make inroads with personal users.

    Zune will be acknowleged as the most underwhelming product MS has ever made – and that’s saying alot.

    (2) Apple

    While many people will point out that iTV and iPhone have no unique features, both products – just like the iPod – will become big sellers.

    The Mac, aided by a new and smaller form factor, will grow to 8% of the US market. And yet, little world-wide market share gain happens.

    Oh, and one more thing… ;-)

    After setting new all time highs consistantly over the first 10 weeks of the year, the a 2:1 stock split happens yet again.

    (3) Scoble

    Sets a new personal high of using the ‘vlog’ term 142 times in a single day’s worth of posts on February 10th.

    While his vlog is widely acknowleged to be the second best on the entire planet, it never seems to quite make it to #1. There’s a good side to this though….

    He coins his new “byline” in April – “I vlog harder”.

  5. Here’s another obvious one: within a few months after Vista is released, someone is going to find a major security vulnerability in it which will get patched on a Tuesday ;)

    On a more serious note, based on what I’ve been reading, I’ll predict that the MS-Novell deal (at least as far as patents are concerned) is going to collapse.

    By the end of 2007, Firefox should have 50+% market share in at least one European nation.

    And finally, some politics: GWB’s popularity will reach new lows as we get further stuck in Iraq; US casualties will sail past 3000 and will probably pass 3500.

  6. Here’s another obvious one: within a few months after Vista is released, someone is going to find a major security vulnerability in it which will get patched on a Tuesday ;)

    On a more serious note, based on what I’ve been reading, I’ll predict that the MS-Novell deal (at least as far as patents are concerned) is going to collapse.

    By the end of 2007, Firefox should have 50+% market share in at least one European nation.

    And finally, some politics: GWB’s popularity will reach new lows as we get further stuck in Iraq; US casualties will sail past 3000 and will probably pass 3500.

  7. You know.. MS can finally pay for lying to its customers. It’s called BitTorrent.

    Businesses will HAVE to pay for Vista… eventually… People wil have Vista on their new PCs…

    But few will run out and buy that thing.

    Hey, no predictions on Leopard?

  8. You know.. MS can finally pay for lying to its customers. It’s called BitTorrent.

    Businesses will HAVE to pay for Vista… eventually… People wil have Vista on their new PCs…

    But few will run out and buy that thing.

    Hey, no predictions on Leopard?

  9. Robert,
    No needs to think about number of computers. Dell and others already selling Windows XP with upgrade coupons since October 26.

    It will be easy to say that million Vista’s were “sold” in retail even in January 2007. (I mean 30th and 31st – just two days after “release” !)

    > this OS is a lot better than XP
    This your statement need correction. A lot of hardware and software must be tested or adopted to be Vista compatible. At least appcompat shims must be posted to WindowsUpdate for those. So if your Windows XP works – no need to be in hurry installing Vista on first day of it’s release.

  10. Robert,
    No needs to think about number of computers. Dell and others already selling Windows XP with upgrade coupons since October 26.

    It will be easy to say that million Vista’s were “sold” in retail even in January 2007. (I mean 30th and 31st – just two days after “release” !)

    > this OS is a lot better than XP
    This your statement need correction. A lot of hardware and software must be tested or adopted to be Vista compatible. At least appcompat shims must be posted to WindowsUpdate for those. So if your Windows XP works – no need to be in hurry installing Vista on first day of it’s release.

  11. Last year you “decided” to stop predicting. Your only prediction was not a prediction, it was a plea. For blog search to get better.

    “My predictions last year?

    Didn’t come true: #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18. That’s 11 out of 19 items. Not a good track record.

    I’ll probably leave the prediction business to John Battelle, who has done a much better job at it so far.

    If I were to predict something for 2006, though, it would be similar to what Steve Rubel is focusing on: that blog search simply needs to get better.”

  12. Last year you “decided” to stop predicting. Your only prediction was not a prediction, it was a plea. For blog search to get better.

    “My predictions last year?

    Didn’t come true: #1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18. That’s 11 out of 19 items. Not a good track record.

    I’ll probably leave the prediction business to John Battelle, who has done a much better job at it so far.

    If I were to predict something for 2006, though, it would be similar to what Steve Rubel is focusing on: that blog search simply needs to get better.”