When will Google crash come?

November 28, 2006 By

Dave Winer says we’ll know Web 2.0′s bubble is popped when Google’s stock crashes.

So, what’s the chances of that happening? Well, here in Wales, I see hundreds of businesses, nearly none of them are on Google. Despite the fact that the local population says they use Google.

Translation: Google’s growth isn’t close to being done yet. Particularly internationally.

Will Barons prove right? I don’t know. I still remember all the pundits saying “Apple is dead.” Or, talk to Robert Hess. When he started working at Microsoft about 18 years ago his coworkers told him to sell Microsoft, thinking there was no possible way for the stock to go up more than it already had (remember, back in the 1980s Microsoft was in the same place that Google is today).

I see nothing that’ll stop Google. Do you?

Or, if you do think Google is overrated, what do you think will pop its bubble?

Some things we’ll watch for: growth slowing. That’ll tell us that Google doesn’t have what it takes to get all these businesses on board.

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  • laurent

    People keep mentioning the words bubble and Google in the same sentence. But they keep forgetting one very thing: Google is profitable, very profitable (and they were already profitable before their IPO), they have a proven business model.

    Does not really look like a dot-com era startup, isn’t it?

  • laurent

    People keep mentioning the words bubble and Google in the same sentence. But they keep forgetting one very thing: Google is profitable, very profitable (and they were already profitable before their IPO), they have a proven business model.

    Does not really look like a dot-com era startup, isn’t it?

  • Neal

    Google will crash hard then level out and the reason is the most obvious one, people are leaving Google search. Google is losing its relevance as it’s becoming more and more difficult to find desired results in a search.

    WHEN Google was a search company, search was good and results were highly revelevant and I switched to using Google exclusively… as did many people I know. Now that Google is becoming an advertising business its search sucks more each day and I’m using other engines more frequently. So are others.

    It’s cyclical. A better search will come along and we’ll all migrate. It will grow then head down the advertising track, become polluted with garbage, and drive us away. The cycle will repeat. It’s been that way since the beginning and it will be that way until the end.

  • Neal

    Google will crash hard then level out and the reason is the most obvious one, people are leaving Google search. Google is losing its relevance as it’s becoming more and more difficult to find desired results in a search.

    WHEN Google was a search company, search was good and results were highly revelevant and I switched to using Google exclusively… as did many people I know. Now that Google is becoming an advertising business its search sucks more each day and I’m using other engines more frequently. So are others.

    It’s cyclical. A better search will come along and we’ll all migrate. It will grow then head down the advertising track, become polluted with garbage, and drive us away. The cycle will repeat. It’s been that way since the beginning and it will be that way until the end.

  • http://www.ecobitz.com/ John Dumbrille

    We can’t assume Google’s main ongoing business is ‘search’ – even though they sometimes claim it is. Seems their main business is market research and display. Lots of growth there.

    The ‘Wales problem’ … there’s no reason for me to find a vet service in Wales if I live in Botswana. Seems there is a lot of demand for regionally targetted search results, and I think Adsense is just scratching the surface here.
    What’s more, the more my computer’s IP is linked to a growing record of my google preferences, the more the chance of ever-better-targetted ads coming my way. Meaning, more value to me, and to the advertiser. Lots of growth here too.

  • http://www.ecobitz.com John Dumbrille

    We can’t assume Google’s main ongoing business is ‘search’ – even though they sometimes claim it is. Seems their main business is market research and display. Lots of growth there.

    The ‘Wales problem’ … there’s no reason for me to find a vet service in Wales if I live in Botswana. Seems there is a lot of demand for regionally targetted search results, and I think Adsense is just scratching the surface here.
    What’s more, the more my computer’s IP is linked to a growing record of my google preferences, the more the chance of ever-better-targetted ads coming my way. Meaning, more value to me, and to the advertiser. Lots of growth here too.

  • Jack Stack

    Come on, Wales? Ok, I agree with the international part but they’ll likely grow internationally through acquisition. APAC and EMEA already have their search preferences but who knows, Google has the capability to get serious market share in both. As for getting businesses on board, well, Gore started the whole title-less organization thing (ie: matrix organizations.) Who’s to say that Google won’t be entirely effective there. Eric Schmidt almost defends the lack of organization when interviewed.

  • Jack Stack

    Come on, Wales? Ok, I agree with the international part but they’ll likely grow internationally through acquisition. APAC and EMEA already have their search preferences but who knows, Google has the capability to get serious market share in both. As for getting businesses on board, well, Gore started the whole title-less organization thing (ie: matrix organizations.) Who’s to say that Google won’t be entirely effective there. Eric Schmidt almost defends the lack of organization when interviewed.

  • http://www.pspstuff.co.uk/ parrott

    Unless they create a new advertising stream their growth will be greatly hampered when Adwords plateaus. Online spend will continue to grow but other channels must open wider.

  • http://www.pspstuff.co.uk parrott

    Unless they create a new advertising stream their growth will be greatly hampered when Adwords plateaus. Online spend will continue to grow but other channels must open wider.

  • Christopher Coulter

    And answer is: Newspapers! Back to dead trees…

  • Christopher Coulter

    And answer is: Newspapers! Back to dead trees…

  • http://inteloutside.wordpress.com/ artha

    Sooner than most people think ( or i hope at least) for the following reasons-

    1 Loss of appeal:
    -Tech is rebellious. Google succeeded with “don’t be evil” motto. Now look around and you will find a new evil vs old evils. All devils go to hell, sooner or later.
    -At least in Europe, google is a bureaucracy and not a meritocracy. They will encounter the symptoms of big blue. Just wait of couple of years. Just look at the job adverts and you will see what kind of people google is looking for.

    2 Limited top line growth:
    -Every market vendors in the long tail wont be able to bid 25£ keywords. There is limited horizon for exponential growth.
    -Second tier marketeers will lose by competing with the 1st tier marketeers. Look out for an alternative arrangement which should be somewhere in the corner.
    -Third, marketing Google styled is a black magic. At one moment the advertisers will know how much value for money are they getting.

    3Loss of focus
    -After search and Ad sense Google doesn’t have a lineup of another killer App

    Timing of Burst:
    The next big economic crunch will wipe out this frantic valuations. It might come from another geopolitical shock or dollar crash or any other events. I havent yet forgotten boom and bust cycle of capitalism.

    Reminds me of altavista, askjeeves, snap.com and inktomi.. I guess doom sayers like me are camping on a site and waiting for the next crunch.

  • http://inteloutside.wordpress.com artha

    Sooner than most people think ( or i hope at least) for the following reasons-

    1 Loss of appeal:
    -Tech is rebellious. Google succeeded with “don’t be evil” motto. Now look around and you will find a new evil vs old evils. All devils go to hell, sooner or later.
    -At least in Europe, google is a bureaucracy and not a meritocracy. They will encounter the symptoms of big blue. Just wait of couple of years. Just look at the job adverts and you will see what kind of people google is looking for.

    2 Limited top line growth:
    -Every market vendors in the long tail wont be able to bid 25£ keywords. There is limited horizon for exponential growth.
    -Second tier marketeers will lose by competing with the 1st tier marketeers. Look out for an alternative arrangement which should be somewhere in the corner.
    -Third, marketing Google styled is a black magic. At one moment the advertisers will know how much value for money are they getting.

    3Loss of focus
    -After search and Ad sense Google doesn’t have a lineup of another killer App

    Timing of Burst:
    The next big economic crunch will wipe out this frantic valuations. It might come from another geopolitical shock or dollar crash or any other events. I havent yet forgotten boom and bust cycle of capitalism.

    Reminds me of altavista, askjeeves, snap.com and inktomi.. I guess doom sayers like me are camping on a site and waiting for the next crunch.

  • JG

    Re: The ‘Wales’ problem: Maybe local targetting might indeed increase the amount of ad real estate available. But there are two immediate problems I can see with that:

    (1) There are a limited number of businesses for which search is truly local. Finding a vet or a plumber, yes. But buying books? Ordering specialty foods? Buying TVs, DVDs, software, video game consoles, etc. Those are all not-necessarily-local activities, and will face non-local competition. Hence for almost everything but the vet and the plumber, we’re back to the limited real estate problem.

    (2) Now, for the vet and the plumber: If things truly are so local, then you are only going to have 3, maybe 4 vets, total, that will ever advertise in your local area — because there are no more than 3 or 4 vets, in existence in your local area! And in that case, let us suppose that all 4 vets use AdWords. Well, if I know for a fact that my vet ad is only competing with 3 other vet ads, I am not going to bid more than a penny or two for that ad. Why would I? Most people call a few vets anyway, when doing their YellowPages search. So what if I am ranked 3rd and not 1st? People looking for vets are going to call me, anyway. Thus, Google only makes a penny on me.. hardly enough to guarantee future wild revenue growth.

    So you have this paradox: If Google keeps the ads “global”, then there is too much competition, and most people don’t play. But if Google makes the ads truly “local”, then there is not enough competition, and nobody bids high for any keyword — and Google still doesn’t grow. It might not crash, but its future certainly isn’t huge growth.

  • JG

    Re: The ‘Wales’ problem: Maybe local targetting might indeed increase the amount of ad real estate available. But there are two immediate problems I can see with that:

    (1) There are a limited number of businesses for which search is truly local. Finding a vet or a plumber, yes. But buying books? Ordering specialty foods? Buying TVs, DVDs, software, video game consoles, etc. Those are all not-necessarily-local activities, and will face non-local competition. Hence for almost everything but the vet and the plumber, we’re back to the limited real estate problem.

    (2) Now, for the vet and the plumber: If things truly are so local, then you are only going to have 3, maybe 4 vets, total, that will ever advertise in your local area — because there are no more than 3 or 4 vets, in existence in your local area! And in that case, let us suppose that all 4 vets use AdWords. Well, if I know for a fact that my vet ad is only competing with 3 other vet ads, I am not going to bid more than a penny or two for that ad. Why would I? Most people call a few vets anyway, when doing their YellowPages search. So what if I am ranked 3rd and not 1st? People looking for vets are going to call me, anyway. Thus, Google only makes a penny on me.. hardly enough to guarantee future wild revenue growth.

    So you have this paradox: If Google keeps the ads “global”, then there is too much competition, and most people don’t play. But if Google makes the ads truly “local”, then there is not enough competition, and nobody bids high for any keyword — and Google still doesn’t grow. It might not crash, but its future certainly isn’t huge growth.

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  • robertson

    When I started to notice Google Ads on a high percentages of pages I visited I decided it was time to limit Googles ability to track my web browsing habits by blocking the Google Ad and Analytics domains at my router.

    I then thought about Googles extensive mining of information for its own purposes and have since decided to become a Google free zone. I have since blocked all known Google domains at my Network Router. My full network is now free of Google spying.

    I do realize that the other search engines also mine data but I can not block them all as a roll your own search engine is not practical. So I now choose to use a search that is not so widespread in it’s plastering of ads on third party sites. I do block many of these third party tracking domains at my network router.

    Some may say that advertising is needed to support the web but it is my opinion advertising has ruined the web. Information is now obscured by monetary decisions. He who pays more gets more sway in the spread of information. Call me a communist if you want but this capitalist control of information is completely against my belief.

  • robertson

    When I started to notice Google Ads on a high percentages of pages I visited I decided it was time to limit Googles ability to track my web browsing habits by blocking the Google Ad and Analytics domains at my router.

    I then thought about Googles extensive mining of information for its own purposes and have since decided to become a Google free zone. I have since blocked all known Google domains at my Network Router. My full network is now free of Google spying.

    I do realize that the other search engines also mine data but I can not block them all as a roll your own search engine is not practical. So I now choose to use a search that is not so widespread in it’s plastering of ads on third party sites. I do block many of these third party tracking domains at my network router.

    Some may say that advertising is needed to support the web but it is my opinion advertising has ruined the web. Information is now obscured by monetary decisions. He who pays more gets more sway in the spread of information. Call me a communist if you want but this capitalist control of information is completely against my belief.

  • http://peterdawson.typepad.com /pd

    huh ?? if google ever dies.. how about ..

    a) recession mode ( net worth of ALL market’s drop)
    b) US .gov will lose its right arm for counter intillgence activities
    c) google Fans will become rabid ..mass hystria

    ‘..nuff said

  • http://peterdawson.typepad.com/ /pd

    huh ?? if google ever dies.. how about ..

    a) recession mode ( net worth of ALL market’s drop)
    b) US .gov will lose its right arm for counter intillgence activities
    c) google Fans will become rabid ..mass hystria

    ‘..nuff said

  • Larry

    “That said, someone’s clicking on those ads. My friends are making thousands of dollars per month from them.”

    The bloggers that host the ads are making money, but what about the advertisers themselves? The advertisers are the source of the money and if they’re not getting their money’s worth, they won’t continue paying Google’s ad fees, which means that Google would have to lower the fees or advertisers stop placing the ads in the first place; both scenarios would cut the money that bloggers are making.

    So the question is, are enough people clicking the ads to justify what Google is charging advertisers? I think this has yet to be determined. Nobody I know looks at internet ads at all, and I seriously doubt that enough people click them to justify Google and the bloggers making billions from those clicks. I think right now Google and the bloggers are taking the advertisers to the cleaners, but we’ll see the ad revenue go down as the advertisers see that they’re paying more for the ads than they are getting back in sales.

  • Larry

    “That said, someone’s clicking on those ads. My friends are making thousands of dollars per month from them.”

    The bloggers that host the ads are making money, but what about the advertisers themselves? The advertisers are the source of the money and if they’re not getting their money’s worth, they won’t continue paying Google’s ad fees, which means that Google would have to lower the fees or advertisers stop placing the ads in the first place; both scenarios would cut the money that bloggers are making.

    So the question is, are enough people clicking the ads to justify what Google is charging advertisers? I think this has yet to be determined. Nobody I know looks at internet ads at all, and I seriously doubt that enough people click them to justify Google and the bloggers making billions from those clicks. I think right now Google and the bloggers are taking the advertisers to the cleaners, but we’ll see the ad revenue go down as the advertisers see that they’re paying more for the ads than they are getting back in sales.

  • Larry

    “Some may say that advertising is needed to support the web but it is my opinion advertising has ruined the web. Information is now obscured by monetary decisions.”

    I wouldn’t go as far as blocking all Google domains, robertson, but I do agree that advertising, in its current form, is ruining the web experience. There are many articles that, rather than being 1 to 3 pages long, are on 15 to 20 pages long, each page having just one or two paragraphs, and each page loaded with Google ads. So, the article becomes a chore to read for the sake of loading the article up with as many Google ads as possible.

    This is not something that should be celebrated, like Google fanboys and cheerleaders (e.g. Scoble himself) like to do.

  • Larry

    “Some may say that advertising is needed to support the web but it is my opinion advertising has ruined the web. Information is now obscured by monetary decisions.”

    I wouldn’t go as far as blocking all Google domains, robertson, but I do agree that advertising, in its current form, is ruining the web experience. There are many articles that, rather than being 1 to 3 pages long, are on 15 to 20 pages long, each page having just one or two paragraphs, and each page loaded with Google ads. So, the article becomes a chore to read for the sake of loading the article up with as many Google ads as possible.

    This is not something that should be celebrated, like Google fanboys and cheerleaders (e.g. Scoble himself) like to do.

  • Larry

    “Most people call a few vets anyway, when doing their YellowPages search. So what if I am ranked 3rd and not 1st? People looking for vets are going to call me, anyway. Thus, Google only makes a penny on me.. hardly enough to guarantee future wild revenue growth.”

    Ahh, but you need to get with the times. “Yellow Pages” is *dead*. The Google cheerleaders (including Scoble) have declared it so.

  • Larry

    “Most people call a few vets anyway, when doing their YellowPages search. So what if I am ranked 3rd and not 1st? People looking for vets are going to call me, anyway. Thus, Google only makes a penny on me.. hardly enough to guarantee future wild revenue growth.”

    Ahh, but you need to get with the times. “Yellow Pages” is *dead*. The Google cheerleaders (including Scoble) have declared it so.

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  • http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/ Robert Scoble

    Larry: I don’t celebrate sites that do things like that. They are as dead as the Yellow Pages are.

  • http://scobleizer.wordpress.com/ Robert Scoble

    Larry: I don’t celebrate sites that do things like that. They are as dead as the Yellow Pages are.

  • http://gandhi.wordpress.com/ Mihir Gandhi

    Another thing to remember is… lawsuits! With Google buying YouTube, they could potentially face more lawsuits as people post copyrighted videos up.

  • http://gandhi.wordpress.com/ Mihir Gandhi

    Another thing to remember is… lawsuits! With Google buying YouTube, they could potentially face more lawsuits as people post copyrighted videos up.

  • antimicro

    The same topping theory goes with Walmart along with it’s 25-year tremendous stock ascend.

  • antimicro

    The same topping theory goes with Walmart along with it’s 25-year tremendous stock ascend.

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  • http://vickyis.wordpress.com/ vicky

    i would want MSN to overtake Google

  • http://vickyis.wordpress.com/ vicky

    i would want MSN to overtake Google

  • http://xlsgen.arstdesign.com/ Stephane Rodriguez

    The way Google has been constantly rising the CPMs and putting additional pressure into the AdWords parameters is not just seasonal (numerous reports out there related to what’s going on for Christmas), it’s a desperate move. There is a limit to how much you can screw advertisers. The “multiple revenue” Winer talks about, although true so far, is not limitless. Watch the inflexion point.

    Unrelated, technically speaking, if Microsoft were not trying to participate in this text-ad thing, they could have shipped IE7 with a built-in text ad blocker, and Google would lose 1% market share every day. Dead.

    My 2 cents

  • http://xlsgen.arstdesign.com Stephane Rodriguez

    The way Google has been constantly rising the CPMs and putting additional pressure into the AdWords parameters is not just seasonal (numerous reports out there related to what’s going on for Christmas), it’s a desperate move. There is a limit to how much you can screw advertisers. The “multiple revenue” Winer talks about, although true so far, is not limitless. Watch the inflexion point.

    Unrelated, technically speaking, if Microsoft were not trying to participate in this text-ad thing, they could have shipped IE7 with a built-in text ad blocker, and Google would lose 1% market share every day. Dead.

    My 2 cents

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  • Anton2000

    Confidence and champagne were replaced by agony and Prozac as the Nasdaq proceeded to fall 77.9 percent to its post-bubble low of…

    http://tinyurl.com/y63enp

  • Anton2000

    Confidence and champagne were replaced by agony and Prozac as the Nasdaq proceeded to fall 77.9 percent to its post-bubble low of…

    http://tinyurl.com/y63enp

  • http://balaarjunan.wordpress.com/ Bala

    Google’s Fall is not far… People have already started feeling the Monopoly… SO soon they will stop clickin ads…and thats the end

  • http://balaarjunan.wordpress.com/ Bala

    Google’s Fall is not far… People have already started feeling the Monopoly… SO soon they will stop clickin ads…and thats the end

  • http://semcertification.wordpress.com/ semcertification

    An ode to Google;
    Search engine, search engine fell on your head,
    search engine, search engine soon you’ll be dead.
    All of the bad SERPS from spammin’ and stuff,
    search engine, search engine, when is enough?
    Search engine, search engine why all the ads?
    Search engine, search engine your time is in fads.

  • http://semcertification.wordpress.com/ semcertification

    An ode to Google;
    Search engine, search engine fell on your head,
    search engine, search engine soon you’ll be dead.
    All of the bad SERPS from spammin’ and stuff,
    search engine, search engine, when is enough?
    Search engine, search engine why all the ads?
    Search engine, search engine your time is in fads.

  • http://nashaad.wordpress.com/ Firestarter

    I think everyone is looking a very limited set of services that google has to offer. Google is still very very fast as a search engine, just that will keep it going for a while. The new yahoo mail and even livemail (hotmail) aren’t really nearly as good as gmail. Who knows what they have up their sleeve? – They have tools like google gadgets, and as technology moves more and more ‘online’. Its true other companies, notably Microsoft and Yahoo (well many more) may steal their business model, but I also believe google have plenty more to offer in the future – they are very innovative.

  • http://nashaad.wordpress.com/ Firestarter

    I think everyone is looking a very limited set of services that google has to offer. Google is still very very fast as a search engine, just that will keep it going for a while. The new yahoo mail and even livemail (hotmail) aren’t really nearly as good as gmail. Who knows what they have up their sleeve? – They have tools like google gadgets, and as technology moves more and more ‘online’. Its true other companies, notably Microsoft and Yahoo (well many more) may steal their business model, but I also believe google have plenty more to offer in the future – they are very innovative.

  • http://www.lameazoid.com/ Josh Miller

    I used to love Google but lately I find it’s less and less useful. Many many years ago I swore by Metacrawler as my searchengine of choice. Eventually I got tired of every metacrawler search leading to the same dozen or so websites, so I moved elsewhere.

    I see the same thing starting to occur with Google. I search but I can’t ever find what I’m looking for. If I want straight information I just go straight to Wikipedia. If I want interesting personalized blog content I check Technorati. Though I’ll admit I tend ot get better results with Google’s Blogsearch.

  • http://www.lameazoid.com Josh Miller

    I used to love Google but lately I find it’s less and less useful. Many many years ago I swore by Metacrawler as my searchengine of choice. Eventually I got tired of every metacrawler search leading to the same dozen or so websites, so I moved elsewhere.

    I see the same thing starting to occur with Google. I search but I can’t ever find what I’m looking for. If I want straight information I just go straight to Wikipedia. If I want interesting personalized blog content I check Technorati. Though I’ll admit I tend ot get better results with Google’s Blogsearch.

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