Proof that bloggers can’t predict anything in tech

OK, there were only a few bloggers on this panel (Kara Swisher, Rob Hof, and me), but lots of famous journalists from Wall Street Journal, Business Week, CNBC, and Forbes. All trying their hardest to give predictions of what’s coming next year in tech.

In a separate video this panel took questions from the audience, which mostly made up hundreds of PR folks in Silicon Valley.

Of course I was only half joking in this headline. Kara and Rob did a much better job than I did (they should, Kara works for DowJones and Rob works for BusinessWeek) and the panel was a lot of fun. Hopefully I didn’t say too many things that’ll show up on Valleywag over the weekend.

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22 thoughts on “Proof that bloggers can’t predict anything in tech

  1. Robert, your input on the panel was very valuable given that you do truly understand social media and your predictions were right-on so i am not sure that your assessment that you did more worse than Rob or Kara is true. Lots of people I talked to after the panel were glad you were on it.

  2. Robert, your input on the panel was very valuable given that you do truly understand social media and your predictions were right-on so i am not sure that your assessment that you did more worse than Rob or Kara is true. Lots of people I talked to after the panel were glad you were on it.

  3. Christopher: like iPhone, right?

    Or my Nokia N95, that I’ve been hyping up as much as it is able to be hyped (great camera, sucky UI).

    Facebook got up to $15 billion valuation, but seems like it’s imploding every minute lately.

    But, you keep ignoring the things that do win after I hype them up and keep rewriting history.

  4. Christopher: like iPhone, right?

    Or my Nokia N95, that I’ve been hyping up as much as it is able to be hyped (great camera, sucky UI).

    Facebook got up to $15 billion valuation, but seems like it’s imploding every minute lately.

    But, you keep ignoring the things that do win after I hype them up and keep rewriting history.

  5. Charbax: it’s usable, yes. But text is small. Fine for me and other geeks (my son loves it) but for everyday folks? Might find it frustrating.

    Me? It’s totally changed my life downstairs.

  6. Kyte/Seesmic/Mogulus are doing much more interesting stuff.

    I’d roll my eyes, but I am already blind. But given your track record, anything you become an evangelist of, dies, or becomes 1/3 of what the hype promised.

  7. Kyte/Seesmic/Mogulus are doing much more interesting stuff.

    I’d roll my eyes, but I am already blind. But given your track record, anything you become an evangelist of, dies, or becomes 1/3 of what the hype promised.

  8. Charbax: it’s usable, yes. But text is small. Fine for me and other geeks (my son loves it) but for everyday folks? Might find it frustrating.

    Me? It’s totally changed my life downstairs.

  9. Is Apple mac mini usable on your 60″ screen?

    I think there will soon be $100 video-on-demand boxes such using the DivX Connected or Windows Media Extender platform, or even that are independant of a PC such as Archos 5th generation, vudu box and other boxes. I think everyone will have a cheap Linux PC and a $100 Linux set-top-box. All text on the Kindle and all those companies on the panel there will be disrupted by this time next year.

  10. Is Apple mac mini usable on your 60″ screen?

    I think there will soon be $100 video-on-demand boxes such using the DivX Connected or Windows Media Extender platform, or even that are independant of a PC such as Archos 5th generation, vudu box and other boxes. I think everyone will have a cheap Linux PC and a $100 Linux set-top-box. All text on the Kindle and all those companies on the panel there will be disrupted by this time next year.

  11. Near Real-time can become interesting if people can make it more interactive and easier to scan, brag, mix.

    I liked the BugLab videos. It will be interesting to see what they come up with in their “kids/educational” edition. It could be a interesting tool to expose kids to programming.

  12. Near Real-time can become interesting if people can make it more interactive and easier to scan, brag, mix.

    I liked the BugLab videos. It will be interesting to see what they come up with in their “kids/educational” edition. It could be a interesting tool to expose kids to programming.

  13. Edwin: I’m seeing media evolving pretty quickly to live, or near live (look at my cell phone videos I put up today) with a major two-way component (look at how I brought Twitterers into the Google/MySpace press conference).

    My career? I’d expect to be at media companies. Seesmic is interesting. Large enterprises? Interesting too, but probably not for me in the next year or two. Companies like Kyte/Seesmic/Mogulus are doing much more interesting stuff.

  14. Edwin: I’m seeing media evolving pretty quickly to live, or near live (look at my cell phone videos I put up today) with a major two-way component (look at how I brought Twitterers into the Google/MySpace press conference).

    My career? I’d expect to be at media companies. Seesmic is interesting. Large enterprises? Interesting too, but probably not for me in the next year or two. Companies like Kyte/Seesmic/Mogulus are doing much more interesting stuff.

  15. Long but worth the watch. You can see through the panelist how media, journalism/reporting is evolving.

    There were also a couple of interesting references to the notion of advertising evolving.

    Fast forward 2-4 years. What will media look like? More like Robert and Kara or like Forbes? How will it be monetized? It seems to me that publishing and production is in a middle of a bing transformation.

    Robert: how do you see your role evolve? are you going to continue reporting, join a startup like seesmic or go back to a large enterprise company?

  16. Long but worth the watch. You can see through the panelist how media, journalism/reporting is evolving.

    There were also a couple of interesting references to the notion of advertising evolving.

    Fast forward 2-4 years. What will media look like? More like Robert and Kara or like Forbes? How will it be monetized? It seems to me that publishing and production is in a middle of a bing transformation.

    Robert: how do you see your role evolve? are you going to continue reporting, join a startup like seesmic or go back to a large enterprise company?

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