What you all are missing about Google

I’m surprised that even Kara Swisher has missed this. The bloggers are going nuts, once again, over the email that a Google lawyer sent to Microsoft regarding Microsoft’s proposed purchase of Yahoo.

Here’s what’s really going on:

1. Google doesn’t mind this deal going through at all. Google knows they will be able to outrun a “Microhoo.” Why do they know that? Because they’ve been able to outrun them both separately. As I said on Channel 5 news on Friday night: put two turkeys together and you don’t get an eagle.
2. Google stands to gain HUGE by slowing down this deal. Every month longer that this deal takes is tens of millions in Google’s pockets. Why? Well, the real race today isn’t for search. Isn’t for email. Isn’t for IM. It’s for ownership of your mobile phone. I met the guy who runs China’s telecom last week in Davos. He’s seeing six million new people get a cell phone in China every month. So, every month that Microsoft and Yahoo will be stuck in some courtroom arguing out why this is a good deal means money in the bank for Google as they close mobile phone deal after mobile phone deal.
3. Email is not where the money is. Google knows this. So, who cares that Microsoft and Yahoo have a monopoly there? There’s only one way to make money with the 600 million who are on either Microsoft’s Hotmail or Yahoo’s email: get them to join other services where there ARE ways to make money. Danny Sullivan told me that this deal is all about search. He’s right. But you gotta be able to get those 600 million people to not just use your email, but come over and use your search. Google is trying to slow down these teams from doing that. But Google knows that even if Microsoft and Yahoo join email and do a pretty decent job of integrating search into there that Google will still see more growth in both email and search than Microsoft and Yahoo together will see. Why? Have you compared Google’s offerings to the others? I have (I am a Hotmail user). Even though I am locked into Hotmail cause my email address is all over the Web I’d rather be on Gmail and Google’s offerings are better integrated and better designed.
4. IM is harder to monetize than email is. Do we really think Google is concerned about either email or IM? If they were they’d be pouring lots of resources into Gmail and Google Talk. Hint: Google isn’t doing that. Why not? Because they aren’t taking their eye off the mobile ball. They are hoping that everyone else does, though, by sending this note. It sure did work, too. Damn the bloggers all took the bait and either called Google arrogant or hypocritical or annoying. Google is all of those things here, for sure, but they are damn smart and are doing this for their own purposes.

Now, we can argue about whether this deal is good or not, or whether it’ll work out for Microsoft or not, but people, don’t take your eye off of what Google is really up to here. Google is having fun by causing Microsoft to react, not to mention that if its little note is taken seriously this deal will be slowed down by six months or more while government regulators look it over. Even in the best of situations it’s going to take a year for these two huge companies to integrate and figure out how to work with each other. So, every month that this gets delayed is gold in Google’s pockets.

181 thoughts on “What you all are missing about Google

  1. Google definitely has the edge with younger people over Yahoo and Hotmail when it comes to email. I manage the campus email service for the University of Illinois, and many of our college students forward all their campus email (or a copy of each email) to their Gmail accounts. We’ve looked at how many students forward to Gmail versus Yahoo or Hotmail — Gmail is far more popular than Yahoo mail and Hotmail. Of course students love all the applications (Docs, Spreadsheets) that come with a Google account.

  2. Google definitely has the edge with younger people over Yahoo and Hotmail when it comes to email. I manage the campus email service for the University of Illinois, and many of our college students forward all their campus email (or a copy of each email) to their Gmail accounts. We’ve looked at how many students forward to Gmail versus Yahoo or Hotmail — Gmail is far more popular than Yahoo mail and Hotmail. Of course students love all the applications (Docs, Spreadsheets) that come with a Google account.

  3. hi robert

    you nailed it but what the entire tech industry and amazon – yahoo -microsoft and google +ibm
    are missing is one single point what will happen when a terminator like scenario really happens-you can see it happenning already-but you aint seen nothing yet

    when mobile phones and all could be used to control anything what if say a angry microhoo employee or ex-employee or say gogol want to wreck havoc -we already saw that last few weeks due to the undersea cable cut- lets say sabotage-what will we as humans do

    sorry my friend – the foundation for a company is people money and time-if 1 guy has enough money and enough time he can do a lot which no one can notice and will notice after a long time- like say the french banker

    the basis for tech is money – and people – if these 2 go away or are squandered then no matter what happens life will turn into a bunch of pulp and not electronics -no where in recorded history have people talked of electronics or others except when they say it -they talk of it as evil

    scoble – i ask you to listen to your heart and wonder if and when a robotic future comes – the people who shall survive are the ones who can connect with nature-this is something that the mayan civilisation had forecasted and so did a bishop some centuries back who said the names of all the popes and then said the current popes name and then uttered -
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prophecy_of_the_Popes
    (In extreme persecution, the seat of the Holy Roman Church will be occupied by Peter the Roman, who will feed the sheep through many tribulations; when they are over, the city of seven hills will be destroyed, and the terrible or fearsome Judge will judge his people. The End.)

    there is one temple said to be revered all over the world and one which is on the top of seven hills

    i know bill gates will read this and say maybe i was wrong in making a move against yahoo for the next few sentences shall send a shiver to everyone

    the temple of lord balaji is said to be on top of seven hills -thus making it the richest hindu place of worship much more than any other place and second only to the church

    the hills that adorn it are said to be that of a snake called adisesha – a snake on which the lord vishnu – adorns
    and i astrologically am said to be that of the yoga of ashlesha or the serpent yoga {bill gates i know has many a raja yoga like me and can do whatever he wants – i know because i read his chart)
    —————————————————-
    He is closely associated with Vishnu. His name means “that which remains”, from the Sanskrit root shiş, because when the world is destroyed at the end of the kalpa, Shesha remains as he is.
    —————————————————–
    source -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adisesha

    i had known these since 2002 and i had waited and scoble many can see the next few moves – i can as i write know whether i am doing a good or bad move because of my eyes and the distance between the eyes to the object -its a gift that i have learnt to live with

    even my enemy with a million $ in hand =not you bill = wants to kill me and has tried to do that a million times but i have some how managed to escape him

    how much does he hate – he hates me enough to hire people who work across the road just to monitor and kill me-how much does the prize he seeks wants me – enough to tell her family that she will not marry anyone else but me despite the battle going on for 6 long years-what is the war all about – a silly thing called love perfect for valentines day but true – i havent seen her for 6 years and she has ‘i think’ seen me =we dont talk on the phone =we dont call each other-we dont sms -we dont know how this war will end
    yet we dont give up on each other yet we love each other and we will each be ready to give the world away for each other

    my enemy and i have not even met once during these 6 years yet i know each and every move he makes
    and he knows mine also and my oh my sadly these moves are being made on yahoo – = too much of a coincidence though.after all a book with my name as the title is with own media network – to be launched in 2009 and had recieved the book on jan 30 th and the offer was proposed i believe on feb 2nd-too many coincidences
    also one more part-google offering a team edition of apps on feb 4 th -too many -after all i only mentioned one persons name in the book the rest vaguely – bill gates -chairman of microsoft – the rest were in riddles and normal words-thats why the book was never highlighted in the media

    and i know you are going to delete this comment – say hi to milan

    bye
    @runb@laj!

    thanks dear scoble -one of few places where i can write freely and express -read below for some of the most shocking stuff that i found when i started this

  4. hi robert

    you nailed it but what the entire tech industry and amazon – yahoo -microsoft and google +ibm
    are missing is one single point what will happen when a terminator like scenario really happens-you can see it happenning already-but you aint seen nothing yet

    when mobile phones and all could be used to control anything what if say a angry microhoo employee or ex-employee or say gogol want to wreck havoc -we already saw that last few weeks due to the undersea cable cut- lets say sabotage-what will we as humans do

    sorry my friend – the foundation for a company is people money and time-if 1 guy has enough money and enough time he can do a lot which no one can notice and will notice after a long time- like say the french banker

    the basis for tech is money – and people – if these 2 go away or are squandered then no matter what happens life will turn into a bunch of pulp and not electronics -no where in recorded history have people talked of electronics or others except when they say it -they talk of it as evil

    scoble – i ask you to listen to your heart and wonder if and when a robotic future comes – the people who shall survive are the ones who can connect with nature-this is something that the mayan civilisation had forecasted and so did a bishop some centuries back who said the names of all the popes and then said the current popes name and then uttered -
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prophecy_of_the_Popes
    (In extreme persecution, the seat of the Holy Roman Church will be occupied by Peter the Roman, who will feed the sheep through many tribulations; when they are over, the city of seven hills will be destroyed, and the terrible or fearsome Judge will judge his people. The End.)

    there is one temple said to be revered all over the world and one which is on the top of seven hills

    i know bill gates will read this and say maybe i was wrong in making a move against yahoo for the next few sentences shall send a shiver to everyone

    the temple of lord balaji is said to be on top of seven hills -thus making it the richest hindu place of worship much more than any other place and second only to the church

    the hills that adorn it are said to be that of a snake called adisesha – a snake on which the lord vishnu – adorns
    and i astrologically am said to be that of the yoga of ashlesha or the serpent yoga {bill gates i know has many a raja yoga like me and can do whatever he wants – i know because i read his chart)
    —————————————————-
    He is closely associated with Vishnu. His name means “that which remains”, from the Sanskrit root shiş, because when the world is destroyed at the end of the kalpa, Shesha remains as he is.
    —————————————————–
    source -http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adisesha

    i had known these since 2002 and i had waited and scoble many can see the next few moves – i can as i write know whether i am doing a good or bad move because of my eyes and the distance between the eyes to the object -its a gift that i have learnt to live with

    even my enemy with a million $ in hand =not you bill = wants to kill me and has tried to do that a million times but i have some how managed to escape him

    how much does he hate – he hates me enough to hire people who work across the road just to monitor and kill me-how much does the prize he seeks wants me – enough to tell her family that she will not marry anyone else but me despite the battle going on for 6 long years-what is the war all about – a silly thing called love perfect for valentines day but true – i havent seen her for 6 years and she has ‘i think’ seen me =we dont talk on the phone =we dont call each other-we dont sms -we dont know how this war will end
    yet we dont give up on each other yet we love each other and we will each be ready to give the world away for each other

    my enemy and i have not even met once during these 6 years yet i know each and every move he makes
    and he knows mine also and my oh my sadly these moves are being made on yahoo – = too much of a coincidence though.after all a book with my name as the title is with own media network – to be launched in 2009 and had recieved the book on jan 30 th and the offer was proposed i believe on feb 2nd-too many coincidences
    also one more part-google offering a team edition of apps on feb 4 th -too many -after all i only mentioned one persons name in the book the rest vaguely – bill gates -chairman of microsoft – the rest were in riddles and normal words-thats why the book was never highlighted in the media

    and i know you are going to delete this comment – say hi to milan

    bye
    @runb@laj!

    thanks dear scoble -one of few places where i can write freely and express -read below for some of the most shocking stuff that i found when i started this

  5. Robert –

    I totally agree that the next big game is in mobile. (See my post Static on the Dream Phone, in which I complain that the NYT took out the most important line from my op ed, namely that Google’s mobile initiatives are their most strategic.)

    And Microsoft also has some credible strategic focus there. But if they were really thinking that way, they ought to be acquiring Adobe, because Flash is also getting big traction on mobile. Meanwhile, I thought that the suggestion that Nokia ought to get into the running for Yahoo! was intriguing.

    I imagine your comments about email were partly a response to my piece Yahoo! Plus Microsoft Strategic Assets in Email. This was not to say that mobile was not important, just that it would be easy for Microsoft to miss some real strategic assets they might be acquiring.

    But more to the point, it seems to me that email and IM are still under-rated applications. Just as in 1998, no one thought search would be monetizable, now people are ignoring communications applications. And so the applications languish. There’s been little real advance for years. I believe that the company that pays real attention to adding value to these applications, making them much more useful for their customers, will reap real benefits. Just as Google didn’t start out with a monetization model for search, but just figured they could do a better job for users (and even when they did turn to monetization, just focused on how advertising could be better for users, not better for them), someone needs to rethink email and IM with a real focus on the customer value proposition.

    We’re all dealing with email overload. Meanwhile, social networking has given us new ideas for how to filter, manage, and exploit our connections. Smart entrepreneurs are building new value here. Why can’t the big guys spend some time on customer value rather than shareholder value?

  6. Robert –

    I totally agree that the next big game is in mobile. (See my post Static on the Dream Phone, in which I complain that the NYT took out the most important line from my op ed, namely that Google’s mobile initiatives are their most strategic.)

    And Microsoft also has some credible strategic focus there. But if they were really thinking that way, they ought to be acquiring Adobe, because Flash is also getting big traction on mobile. Meanwhile, I thought that the suggestion that Nokia ought to get into the running for Yahoo! was intriguing.

    I imagine your comments about email were partly a response to my piece Yahoo! Plus Microsoft Strategic Assets in Email. This was not to say that mobile was not important, just that it would be easy for Microsoft to miss some real strategic assets they might be acquiring.

    But more to the point, it seems to me that email and IM are still under-rated applications. Just as in 1998, no one thought search would be monetizable, now people are ignoring communications applications. And so the applications languish. There’s been little real advance for years. I believe that the company that pays real attention to adding value to these applications, making them much more useful for their customers, will reap real benefits. Just as Google didn’t start out with a monetization model for search, but just figured they could do a better job for users (and even when they did turn to monetization, just focused on how advertising could be better for users, not better for them), someone needs to rethink email and IM with a real focus on the customer value proposition.

    We’re all dealing with email overload. Meanwhile, social networking has given us new ideas for how to filter, manage, and exploit our connections. Smart entrepreneurs are building new value here. Why can’t the big guys spend some time on customer value rather than shareholder value?

  7. robert, you might not remember me but we spoke briefly via email as you were on your way to london in december for a conference.

    as far as mobile web, you should check out http://www.quobile.com. it’s a site for mobile phones that takes out all the stuff you don’t need and works faster than any others. it also has blogs and local news optimized for mobile.

  8. robert, you might not remember me but we spoke briefly via email as you were on your way to london in december for a conference.

    as far as mobile web, you should check out http://www.quobile.com. it’s a site for mobile phones that takes out all the stuff you don’t need and works faster than any others. it also has blogs and local news optimized for mobile.

  9. Fake Steve Jobs writes that the Microsoft-Yahoo merger won’t work. “Here’s why. It’s like taking the two guys who finished second and third in a 100-yard dash and tying their legs together and asking for a rematch, believing that now they’ll run faster.”

    The BBC reports: It’s clear the search giant (Google) is determined to stop this deal. “We’re very nervous about it,” a Google insider told me. “Microsoft is so huge it can just hire a couple of thousand engineers at the click of its fingers and put them to work on any problem.”

    If we replace Fake Steve Job’s 100-yard dash example with a tug-of-war example, the results change. If we tie the two guys who finished second and third together and ask for a rematch in tug-of-war against the guy who finished first, I would bet on two guys being able to out-pull one guy.

    More at my website: http://www.GstockReport.com

  10. Fake Steve Jobs writes that the Microsoft-Yahoo merger won’t work. “Here’s why. It’s like taking the two guys who finished second and third in a 100-yard dash and tying their legs together and asking for a rematch, believing that now they’ll run faster.”

    The BBC reports: It’s clear the search giant (Google) is determined to stop this deal. “We’re very nervous about it,” a Google insider told me. “Microsoft is so huge it can just hire a couple of thousand engineers at the click of its fingers and put them to work on any problem.”

    If we replace Fake Steve Job’s 100-yard dash example with a tug-of-war example, the results change. If we tie the two guys who finished second and third together and ask for a rematch in tug-of-war against the guy who finished first, I would bet on two guys being able to out-pull one guy.

    More at my website: http://www.GstockReport.com

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