How late adopters get into social media

See, the early adopters are forgetting to study how the late adopters actually do get involved in our worlds.

Those in the social media worlds seem to often forget that it’s still a Google World. Most normal people who aren’t frantically checking FriendFeed or Twitter or Facebook or LinkedIn all day long are just hanging back doing 1998-style searches for stuff. And most of those, in my experience, are using Google. So I call it a Google World now for late adopters.

Lately a BUNCH have showed up here looking for info about recession. I couldn’t figure it out, until I looked at my referer log, then looked at Google.

Here, do a Google search for “recession 2008.”

Hundreds of people do that, or one for just plain old “recession” every day for MONTHS.

Welcome late adopters.

OK, OK, I see that people are saying that we should stop calling our latest economic troubles a recession because, well, technically we’re not in a recession.

So, we need a new term for what we’re going through.

We’re not jobless, but our paychecks in the US are worth less and less every day thanks to a combination of dollar weakness and oil price increases.
Our home prices, according to Zillow and our neighbors have gone down so much that we won’t be able to sell our home and come out ahead anymore. Our equity is gone, and that’s if you’re one of those who still can afford to make payments. If you are one of the unlucky ones who didn’t plan ahead you now are renting some cruddy apartment and your credit is in the toilet.
We’re still paying for a war by printing more funny money, which means there will continue to be pressures on our economy.

Maybe we’re not in a recession, but we’re in a deep hole of economic dung. DHED. You heard it first here.

If you’re a late adopter and don’t know about all that newfangled RSS stuff, not to mention you haven’t heard of Twitter yet, not to mention FriendFeed, that’s OK. We love you just the same. Hope you visit again sometime thanks to the wonderful quirky Google World.

Oh, and if you are a late adopter and you see this thing called FriendFeed over on the right side of my blog? Ignore it. You won’t need to know much about it for at least six more years. Not to mention, don’t think of watching those FastCompany.tv videos we’ve been shooting. Someone might see you watching videos and think you’re on YouTube or something.

Comments

  1. So, how do we get the late adopters into social media? I am surprised that you would comment on the topic and then not give your opinion.

    Are you saying that Google (or even Yahoo Buzz) will be their introduction? Is there a better way?

  2. Oh, I don’t think it’s just through Google. I think it’s (at least partially) the ‘real’ social world at work, where early and late adopters often breathe the same air, share genes, etc. I have personally dragged friends and family into new social media on a regular basis. Just not my mom. There is still the suspicion that social media will get you laid, and just in case it does, Mom can stick to email.

  3. So, how do we get the late adopters into social media? I am surprised that you would comment on the topic and then not give your opinion.

    Are you saying that Google (or even Yahoo Buzz) will be their introduction? Is there a better way?

  4. Oh, I don’t think it’s just through Google. I think it’s (at least partially) the ‘real’ social world at work, where early and late adopters often breathe the same air, share genes, etc. I have personally dragged friends and family into new social media on a regular basis. Just not my mom. There is still the suspicion that social media will get you laid, and just in case it does, Mom can stick to email.

  5. Great point. We have SEO and PPC clients who are still trying to understand blogs and SEO etc.- they’re basically about 5 years behind.

    So we can expect social media adoption to lag a bit too, although I think by its very nature web 2.0 will catch on more rapidly than the less social web 1.0… kinda of an oroborotic positive feedback loop.

    That might have been redundant, but I love mentioning the oroboros. ;-)

  6. Great point. We have SEO and PPC clients who are still trying to understand blogs and SEO etc.- they’re basically about 5 years behind.

    So we can expect social media adoption to lag a bit too, although I think by its very nature web 2.0 will catch on more rapidly than the less social web 1.0… kinda of an oroborotic positive feedback loop.

    That might have been redundant, but I love mentioning the oroboros. ;-)

  7. Rob: I did just give my opinion. Late adopters will keep showing up on blogs and Twitter accounts thanks to Google. Eventually they will start seeing value in all the stuff we’re doing and will join in. That’s why there are millions of blogs now. Back when I started there were only a couple of hundred. That’s why YouTube is seeing 80 hours of videos uploaded every few minutes. That’s why Flickr is seeing millions of photos (and so is Facebook and MySpace) every few days.

  8. Rob: I did just give my opinion. Late adopters will keep showing up on blogs and Twitter accounts thanks to Google. Eventually they will start seeing value in all the stuff we’re doing and will join in. That’s why there are millions of blogs now. Back when I started there were only a couple of hundred. That’s why YouTube is seeing 80 hours of videos uploaded every few minutes. That’s why Flickr is seeing millions of photos (and so is Facebook and MySpace) every few days.

  9. I’m surrounded by late adopters. I don’t even bother talking about my job at family functions. I barely even talk about it to my other half.

    Late adopters don’t care about twitter, let alone friendfeed.

    Here is a question though: Will Friendfeed be around in 6 years? How about twitter?

    By that time, I’m sure all of us “in the know” will have moved on. Late adopters will have jumped aboard the twitter bandwagon. Speaking of late adopter – when is Qik going to support more phones????

    Rex

  10. I’m surrounded by late adopters. I don’t even bother talking about my job at family functions. I barely even talk about it to my other half.

    Late adopters don’t care about twitter, let alone friendfeed.

    Here is a question though: Will Friendfeed be around in 6 years? How about twitter?

    By that time, I’m sure all of us “in the know” will have moved on. Late adopters will have jumped aboard the twitter bandwagon. Speaking of late adopter – when is Qik going to support more phones????

    Rex

  11. It’s interesting that you say that about Friendfeed, as I wonder if this sort of service will even be around in 6 years, or even 1 for that matter. Things like this seem to come and go so quickly and I believe that’s one of the issues late adopters seem to have with jumping on the bandwagon – why spend the time learning about a tool if it’ll just change or be gone in a few months or years? There are still people today just learning about free webmail – the reason they’re even bothering to try is that it’s been around long enough to be considered “trusted”. As for the recession, that’s not why I’m here – I found this tweet on twitter and friendfeed :-)

  12. It’s interesting that you say that about Friendfeed, as I wonder if this sort of service will even be around in 6 years, or even 1 for that matter. Things like this seem to come and go so quickly and I believe that’s one of the issues late adopters seem to have with jumping on the bandwagon – why spend the time learning about a tool if it’ll just change or be gone in a few months or years? There are still people today just learning about free webmail – the reason they’re even bothering to try is that it’s been around long enough to be considered “trusted”. As for the recession, that’s not why I’m here – I found this tweet on twitter and friendfeed :-)

  13. Rex: Twitter? Probably. FriendFeed? Yes. You’ve gotta understand the people and the money behind each.

    When is Qik going to support more phones? They are working on it. So are Kyte.tv (which is funded by Nokia, so they probably aren’t working that hard on it). Flixwagon. and Bambuser.

  14. Rex: Twitter? Probably. FriendFeed? Yes. You’ve gotta understand the people and the money behind each.

    When is Qik going to support more phones? They are working on it. So are Kyte.tv (which is funded by Nokia, so they probably aren’t working that hard on it). Flixwagon. and Bambuser.

  15. Thanks for the clarification on Google. I guess I am not used to reading between the lines on your posts. Normally, you just come right out and say exactly what you mean.

  16. Thanks for the clarification on Google. I guess I am not used to reading between the lines on your posts. Normally, you just come right out and say exactly what you mean.

  17. Late adopters are googling Facebook. Late adopters are googling MSN so they can log into their email. Late adopters are still getting phished. Late adopters when asked what a social network is reply by asking Is it like Myspace? And then follow it up with, “Just what is Myspace?

    Late adopters will look at Twitter as useless. They will look at FriendFeed as an aggregator of what and for whom? Late adopters are still not comfortable with text messaging.

    Late adopters are wary of anything that their friends and neigbors are not doing. Late adopters look at Youtube as a teen fad destroying the moral fiber of America.

    Late adopters don’t even know they are late adopters and think they are pretty tech savvy.

  18. Am I missing something, I really don’t see the ‘early adopters’ putting a real case to the ‘late adopters’ to follow them.
    Another name for ‘early adopters’ would be social media researchers.
    Another name for ‘late adopters’ would be ‘mainstream users’.

    It’s really not a matter of being switched on or not – it’s a matter of real business value.

  19. Late adopters are googling Facebook. Late adopters are googling MSN so they can log into their email. Late adopters are still getting phished. Late adopters when asked what a social network is reply by asking Is it like Myspace? And then follow it up with, “Just what is Myspace?

    Late adopters will look at Twitter as useless. They will look at FriendFeed as an aggregator of what and for whom? Late adopters are still not comfortable with text messaging.

    Late adopters are wary of anything that their friends and neigbors are not doing. Late adopters look at Youtube as a teen fad destroying the moral fiber of America.

    Late adopters don’t even know they are late adopters and think they are pretty tech savvy.

  20. Am I missing something, I really don’t see the ‘early adopters’ putting a real case to the ‘late adopters’ to follow them.
    Another name for ‘early adopters’ would be social media researchers.
    Another name for ‘late adopters’ would be ‘mainstream users’.

    It’s really not a matter of being switched on or not – it’s a matter of real business value.

  21. Aren’t late adopters called “general public.” Just hoping that in this one case I’m not defined as general. : )

  22. Aren’t late adopters called “general public.” Just hoping that in this one case I’m not defined as general. : )

  23. You’re not making any sense to me Scoble. Sure they’ll end up on blogs and Twitter, but I don’t see them jumping into Social Media just because they landed on these sites. I see them immediately clicking the [X] box if they have absolutely no clue about them and/or if doesn’t pertain to the information that they’re really looking for.

  24. You’re not making any sense to me Scoble. Sure they’ll end up on blogs and Twitter, but I don’t see them jumping into Social Media just because they landed on these sites. I see them immediately clicking the [X] box if they have absolutely no clue about them and/or if doesn’t pertain to the information that they’re really looking for.

  25. I love it–DHED. Does that really stand for dead head? We certainly are in a pickle right now (or a fix if you prefer that wording). Not only that, but our political system seems to broken as well. I’m studying ancient history with our son and one thing is becoming readily apparent. Throughout history there have been countries that came to the forefront and were world leaders–only to decay and rot from within when their citizens stopped thinking for themselves and their politicians worried more about themselves than their constituents.

    Perhaps a more appropriate term for our current situation is dead rot. The tree rots away from within and it comes as a big surprise one day when the tree comes crashing down. Sound familiar?

  26. There seems to be a wonderful area between early adopters and mainstream. I think you exaggerated a little, its not 6 years, perhaps 2 years. There are exceptions though, YouTube achieved mainstream recognition exceptionally fast.

    And stop being so US-centric ;) Yes your economy isn’t doing so well but nobody is in the position to just bunker down, you’ve got plenty of problems and dealing with them will jolt your economy forwards.

  27. I love it–DHED. Does that really stand for dead head? We certainly are in a pickle right now (or a fix if you prefer that wording). Not only that, but our political system seems to broken as well. I’m studying ancient history with our son and one thing is becoming readily apparent. Throughout history there have been countries that came to the forefront and were world leaders–only to decay and rot from within when their citizens stopped thinking for themselves and their politicians worried more about themselves than their constituents.

    Perhaps a more appropriate term for our current situation is dead rot. The tree rots away from within and it comes as a big surprise one day when the tree comes crashing down. Sound familiar?

  28. There seems to be a wonderful area between early adopters and mainstream. I think you exaggerated a little, its not 6 years, perhaps 2 years. There are exceptions though, YouTube achieved mainstream recognition exceptionally fast.

    And stop being so US-centric ;) Yes your economy isn’t doing so well but nobody is in the position to just bunker down, you’ve got plenty of problems and dealing with them will jolt your economy forwards.

  29. Corvida: if people hear about something enough times, they’ll try it out. People who use Google aren’t luddites, after all.

    Is YouTube really mainstream, though? Depends on how you define it. There’s six billion people in the world who still don’t own a computer. I guess we’re all early adopters here.

  30. Corvida: if people hear about something enough times, they’ll try it out. People who use Google aren’t luddites, after all.

    Is YouTube really mainstream, though? Depends on how you define it. There’s six billion people in the world who still don’t own a computer. I guess we’re all early adopters here.

  31. See, Twitter sounds cool and all, and I’ve considered joining, but the fact is I don’t think a single person I know is on Twitter. The mass of Twittering people has not bled into my social graph. My blog has maybe three subscribers, so I already blog into a void; I don’t need to tweet into it too.

    Facebook statuses do basically the same thing as Twitter for me, and I at least know that my friends are seeing it.

  32. See, Twitter sounds cool and all, and I’ve considered joining, but the fact is I don’t think a single person I know is on Twitter. The mass of Twittering people has not bled into my social graph. My blog has maybe three subscribers, so I already blog into a void; I don’t need to tweet into it too.

    Facebook statuses do basically the same thing as Twitter for me, and I at least know that my friends are seeing it.

  33. If you are coming up as one of the top hits on the topic of the economy and recession, Google needs to figure out a way to separate expert analysis from amateur opinion.

  34. If you are coming up as one of the top hits on the topic of the economy and recession, Google needs to figure out a way to separate expert analysis from amateur opinion.

  35. Alan: this is a good point. Google is a popularity engine. Not good at discerning what’s expert and what’s not. That said, I had quite a bit of experience in what I wrote about and got a ton of links from all over the place. My minor in college is economics.

  36. Alan: this is a good point. Google is a popularity engine. Not good at discerning what’s expert and what’s not. That said, I had quite a bit of experience in what I wrote about and got a ton of links from all over the place. My minor in college is economics.

  37. So, if Google started bringing back search results from the Twitter-verse would that bring more late adopters up to speed? Often there is a lot of potentially good information there that would be valid to turn up in a search (if you could bring the whole conversation in as one search result maybe).

    It’s not as if the late adopters wouldn’t find these services valuable, they just don’t have (or make) the time or interest to seek out new tools because they make due with what they have and it works for them. There’s no good reason for them to explore other options until someone proves the benefit. And sometimes the benefits aren’t obvious until you’ve been using them for a while.

    As for things like Twitter and FriendFeed they take an enormous amount of time and effort to get value out of. You’re lucky, Robert, because you have a huge network and a lifestyle that lets you constantly participate. For other people like me who are restricted during working hours from taking part and can’t builid up a network of followers so I actually get responses when I contribute or ask a question there is much less value besides entertainment.

    There also seems to be a barrier for late adopters in virtual vs real world contacts. Most of them participate in real world communities with people they know in the flesh or who are at least in their physical communities. There’s less interest in knowing about the weather or where someone had lunch unless you can experience that yourself. Out of the hundreds of people I interact with on a regular basis during the week, I only know 3-5 who actively participate in social media. I wish I knew more people like me in meatspace!

    Ubiquitousness will come in a few years but not until some of the barriers to entry are removed and that’s what the early adopters do.

  38. So, if Google started bringing back search results from the Twitter-verse would that bring more late adopters up to speed? Often there is a lot of potentially good information there that would be valid to turn up in a search (if you could bring the whole conversation in as one search result maybe).

    It’s not as if the late adopters wouldn’t find these services valuable, they just don’t have (or make) the time or interest to seek out new tools because they make due with what they have and it works for them. There’s no good reason for them to explore other options until someone proves the benefit. And sometimes the benefits aren’t obvious until you’ve been using them for a while.

    As for things like Twitter and FriendFeed they take an enormous amount of time and effort to get value out of. You’re lucky, Robert, because you have a huge network and a lifestyle that lets you constantly participate. For other people like me who are restricted during working hours from taking part and can’t builid up a network of followers so I actually get responses when I contribute or ask a question there is much less value besides entertainment.

    There also seems to be a barrier for late adopters in virtual vs real world contacts. Most of them participate in real world communities with people they know in the flesh or who are at least in their physical communities. There’s less interest in knowing about the weather or where someone had lunch unless you can experience that yourself. Out of the hundreds of people I interact with on a regular basis during the week, I only know 3-5 who actively participate in social media. I wish I knew more people like me in meatspace!

    Ubiquitousness will come in a few years but not until some of the barriers to entry are removed and that’s what the early adopters do.

  39. “Late adopters” is a bit harsh for people not losing all of their time just to learn the latest buzz. I think you’re insulting many people likely including your own family with that particular name. Still Your recession points are valid and will possibly justify some interest some ot the google traffic you receive for that keyword.

  40. “Late adopters” is a bit harsh for people not losing all of their time just to learn the latest buzz. I think you’re insulting many people likely including your own family with that particular name. Still Your recession points are valid and will possibly justify some interest some ot the google traffic you receive for that keyword.

  41. I don’t usually get my best results from Google. I tend to use smaller search engines and get better results.

    Google has mindshare. It does not, however, deliver the best results. I look for some pretty obscure stuff on travel quite frequently, and Google rarely comes back with the results I’m seeking.

  42. I don’t usually get my best results from Google. I tend to use smaller search engines and get better results.

    Google has mindshare. It does not, however, deliver the best results. I look for some pretty obscure stuff on travel quite frequently, and Google rarely comes back with the results I’m seeking.

  43. I think your belittling disdain for late adopters is undeserved. If developers would create something that we felt good about inviting our parents and grandparents and others to, we would.

    If developers don’t create mainstream sites, then don’t mock and ridicule the mainstream for not showing up.

    I for one am sick to death of hearing “they don’t get it.” From where I sit, it’s early adopters who don’t “get” anybody but those who look and act and think like they do.

  44. I think your belittling disdain for late adopters is undeserved. If developers would create something that we felt good about inviting our parents and grandparents and others to, we would.

    If developers don’t create mainstream sites, then don’t mock and ridicule the mainstream for not showing up.

    I for one am sick to death of hearing “they don’t get it.” From where I sit, it’s early adopters who don’t “get” anybody but those who look and act and think like they do.

  45. I think you’re right about it being a Google world. My server logs are full of surprising searches that (comically, sometimes) led to my blog.

    My 80-something parents turn to Google when they want information. Just a matter of time before they start asking about Twitter – or not. But the point is they’re inadvertently getting exposed to alien ideas in a non-threatening way. And that can (sometimes) lead to change.

  46. I think you’re right about it being a Google world. My server logs are full of surprising searches that (comically, sometimes) led to my blog.

    My 80-something parents turn to Google when they want information. Just a matter of time before they start asking about Twitter – or not. But the point is they’re inadvertently getting exposed to alien ideas in a non-threatening way. And that can (sometimes) lead to change.

  47. Wow, you know what that #1 position might be worth the coming months…?
    Especially as all the sharks will jump on this to “help” people get out of the downturn. this proofs that Google sees your blog as an authority.

  48. Wow, you know what that #1 position might be worth the coming months…?
    Especially as all the sharks will jump on this to “help” people get out of the downturn. this proofs that Google sees your blog as an authority.

  49. Mashable is incorrect. Contrary to popular misinformation, an official recession is not 2 negative quarters GDP.

    Most recessions aren’t officially called for months, and upon revision of data.

    Most experts think that when it’s all said and done, this current recessions will be said to have officially started in december 2007 or january 2008.

    However – I do like your DHED.org initiative =)

  50. Mashable is incorrect. Contrary to popular misinformation, an official recession is not 2 negative quarters GDP.

    Most recessions aren’t officially called for months, and upon revision of data.

    Most experts think that when it’s all said and done, this current recessions will be said to have officially started in december 2007 or january 2008.

    However – I do like your DHED.org initiative =)

  51. There are no “late” adopters I would argue.

    There are only early adopters who consume technology when it is first introduced. These early adopters, in the case of HD TVs, pay a premium for being early to the party. Without early adopters, the mainstream wouldn’t have products and services to eventually adopt.

    With the Internet, the application adoption curve is even more elongated. Google is mainstream and Yahoo is mainstream and look how long they’ve been around. Defining mainstream is difficult, but I think the simplest definition is if my 70 year old mother uses the technology, it is mainstream, and she is very technically inept.

    Robert, you are surely on the “bleeding edge” for Web technology and I think you are so far out in front of the mainstream that they can’t even see you anymore and when they read your stuff they see big question marks in their head and quickly move on.

    Oh, and I re-read your post a couple of times and I agree with a previous poster. I don’t get the answer to your title. How do late adopters get into social media? By Googl’ing a subject and stumbling upon a site like yours?

  52. There are no “late” adopters I would argue.

    There are only early adopters who consume technology when it is first introduced. These early adopters, in the case of HD TVs, pay a premium for being early to the party. Without early adopters, the mainstream wouldn’t have products and services to eventually adopt.

    With the Internet, the application adoption curve is even more elongated. Google is mainstream and Yahoo is mainstream and look how long they’ve been around. Defining mainstream is difficult, but I think the simplest definition is if my 70 year old mother uses the technology, it is mainstream, and she is very technically inept.

    Robert, you are surely on the “bleeding edge” for Web technology and I think you are so far out in front of the mainstream that they can’t even see you anymore and when they read your stuff they see big question marks in their head and quickly move on.

    Oh, and I re-read your post a couple of times and I agree with a previous poster. I don’t get the answer to your title. How do late adopters get into social media? By Googl’ing a subject and stumbling upon a site like yours?

  53. Just to back myself up cause I have no credibility.

    Martin Feldstein, head of NBER said on March 7, 2007: I think that December/January was the peak and that we have been sliding into recession ever since then. I think it could go on longer last two recessions (which) lasted eight months peak to trough”.

    NBER is the National Bureau of Economic Research, the ones who make the official call.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0747602120080407

  54. Just to back myself up cause I have no credibility.

    Martin Feldstein, head of NBER said on March 7, 2007: I think that December/January was the peak and that we have been sliding into recession ever since then. I think it could go on longer last two recessions (which) lasted eight months peak to trough”.

    NBER is the National Bureau of Economic Research, the ones who make the official call.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN0747602120080407

  55. I’m an intentional late adopter. Believe me. These things blip my radar. I just don’t feel like joining 2 new social networks every week for the rest of 2008, only to have more than half of them fizzle out before the end of 2009.

    I wait for the initial buzz to fade off. Then, I let all my new media fanfriends evangelize me. And when they just about give up on getting me into something, I join.

  56. I’m an intentional late adopter. Believe me. These things blip my radar. I just don’t feel like joining 2 new social networks every week for the rest of 2008, only to have more than half of them fizzle out before the end of 2009.

    I wait for the initial buzz to fade off. Then, I let all my new media fanfriends evangelize me. And when they just about give up on getting me into something, I join.

  57. I’d have to agree with Hershel – mostly. Your term “late adopters” is a mis-nomer to others who follow product cycles and other academic explanations. (And who like to drop ten-dollar words around…)

    Scoble’s Glossary:
    early adopter = bleeding edge – before it hits even the pre-radars
    late adopter = early adopter – just hit the radar screen and becoming popular
    mainstreamer = peak adopter – everybody does it
    really old hat = actual late adopter – everybody’s been doing it for years, now something else is really popular
    dinosaurs = trivia collectors – long after everyone else has moved on to that something else

  58. I’d have to agree with Hershel – mostly. Your term “late adopters” is a mis-nomer to others who follow product cycles and other academic explanations. (And who like to drop ten-dollar words around…)

    Scoble’s Glossary:
    early adopter = bleeding edge – before it hits even the pre-radars
    late adopter = early adopter – just hit the radar screen and becoming popular
    mainstreamer = peak adopter – everybody does it
    really old hat = actual late adopter – everybody’s been doing it for years, now something else is really popular
    dinosaurs = trivia collectors – long after everyone else has moved on to that something else

  59. Robert,

    I can’t tell whether you’re tongue-in-cheek with that call to the “newbies” to ignore FF for 6 years.

    Technology accelerates, change accelerates, they accelerate each other, and no, that doesn’t mean they are all headed to that retarded “singularity” thingie, but they are making things more complex, and more needful of curators who don’t stop the flow to be analyzed by others.

    I’ll never forgot what this one guy wanted to do with Samizdat (which was the Soviet version of blogs, really, in the 1980s lol). “Self-publishing” is what the word means. He wanted to take everybody’s retyped freely copied passed-on samizdat and bundle it and re-sell it, after somebody else who had aggregated it as a favour passed it to him…dog in the manger. I’m all for proprietary intellectual property. But if something is released into Samizdat, don’t try to hog it and predict about it and try to control how others will use it.

    The recession is worse than you’re feeling it, too.

  60. Robert,

    I can’t tell whether you’re tongue-in-cheek with that call to the “newbies” to ignore FF for 6 years.

    Technology accelerates, change accelerates, they accelerate each other, and no, that doesn’t mean they are all headed to that retarded “singularity” thingie, but they are making things more complex, and more needful of curators who don’t stop the flow to be analyzed by others.

    I’ll never forgot what this one guy wanted to do with Samizdat (which was the Soviet version of blogs, really, in the 1980s lol). “Self-publishing” is what the word means. He wanted to take everybody’s retyped freely copied passed-on samizdat and bundle it and re-sell it, after somebody else who had aggregated it as a favour passed it to him…dog in the manger. I’m all for proprietary intellectual property. But if something is released into Samizdat, don’t try to hog it and predict about it and try to control how others will use it.

    The recession is worse than you’re feeling it, too.

  61. Robert: I’ve never heard a truer truism than what Will Wright said to us back in the beta of the Sims Online: that 10 percent will create the content of the other 90 percent.

    Social media might up that to 25 or even 50, but it doesn’t mean that “late-comers” who come to the blogging tools will themselves also want to make a blog. They may skip that step.They may only make a Flickr. Or a Twitter. Or skip all of those and circle back to real life. Or just read blogs. Or…you just don’t know.

    I don’t think you can assume a linear development where first 10 percent use blogs then eventuallly 100 percent make blogs. Blogs are kinda stupid things. Not everyone will want to make them. Or read them.

    Only 20 percent of voters read political blogs. My God, that may be a GOOD thing.

  62. Robert: I’ve never heard a truer truism than what Will Wright said to us back in the beta of the Sims Online: that 10 percent will create the content of the other 90 percent.

    Social media might up that to 25 or even 50, but it doesn’t mean that “late-comers” who come to the blogging tools will themselves also want to make a blog. They may skip that step.They may only make a Flickr. Or a Twitter. Or skip all of those and circle back to real life. Or just read blogs. Or…you just don’t know.

    I don’t think you can assume a linear development where first 10 percent use blogs then eventuallly 100 percent make blogs. Blogs are kinda stupid things. Not everyone will want to make them. Or read them.

    Only 20 percent of voters read political blogs. My God, that may be a GOOD thing.

  63. So how would you answer those people that are bored with “social media?” The people I want to talk to I do either over email, IM, or believe it or not IN PERSON. What type of adopter does that make me? I don’t want to get spam invites, to have yet another social media account, I don’t want to get superpoked, or compare my movie tastes, or write on someone’s fun wall.
    I want to communicate with my friends. And by friends I mean real life friends, not someone who I only meet online that I will never meet in person.
    I want a “community” of real people, who care about things that I care about and who share my burdens and concerns… 5,000 friends on Facebook can’t do this.
    Seems like we have gotten way to in-personal when we should be striving to bring back community.

    What type of adopter am I?

  64. So how would you answer those people that are bored with “social media?” The people I want to talk to I do either over email, IM, or believe it or not IN PERSON. What type of adopter does that make me? I don’t want to get spam invites, to have yet another social media account, I don’t want to get superpoked, or compare my movie tastes, or write on someone’s fun wall.
    I want to communicate with my friends. And by friends I mean real life friends, not someone who I only meet online that I will never meet in person.
    I want a “community” of real people, who care about things that I care about and who share my burdens and concerns… 5,000 friends on Facebook can’t do this.
    Seems like we have gotten way to in-personal when we should be striving to bring back community.

    What type of adopter am I?

  65. OHHH actually, I just realized something.

    WOW. You’re assuming that anyone coming to your blog from Google on the Recession 2008 search of Google is some retarded late-comer to social media and just a casual Internet google user.

    Huh? The person searching Recession 2008 could be your IT geeky plugged-in neighbour in Half-Moon Bay, Robert, looking up the news to see if he will lose his job.

    And…the Recession 2008 search words with you at the top of them lets us also know how stupid the whole Google algorithm thing is, and how it doesn’t serve people, because it gives them as ostensibly “the most authoritative” or “the most popular” a blog that isn’t about the recession, that is a snarky comment by a guy who isn’t feeling the recession, who hasn’t really an informed opinion about the recession.

    That’s Google for you! The main thing is that Sergey and Larry have it worked out so that their Silicon Valley pals can always turn up first as influencers lol.

    Then all the hapless saps coming to your page in genuine research on recession 2008 by experts or sufferers or crowd wisdom merely find your page just because…you have a fancy tech-talk site which high Google traffic/cred.

    See, it’s this sort of power and influence that makes you think you can decide candidates for elections.

  66. OHHH actually, I just realized something.

    WOW. You’re assuming that anyone coming to your blog from Google on the Recession 2008 search of Google is some retarded late-comer to social media and just a casual Internet google user.

    Huh? The person searching Recession 2008 could be your IT geeky plugged-in neighbour in Half-Moon Bay, Robert, looking up the news to see if he will lose his job.

    And…the Recession 2008 search words with you at the top of them lets us also know how stupid the whole Google algorithm thing is, and how it doesn’t serve people, because it gives them as ostensibly “the most authoritative” or “the most popular” a blog that isn’t about the recession, that is a snarky comment by a guy who isn’t feeling the recession, who hasn’t really an informed opinion about the recession.

    That’s Google for you! The main thing is that Sergey and Larry have it worked out so that their Silicon Valley pals can always turn up first as influencers lol.

    Then all the hapless saps coming to your page in genuine research on recession 2008 by experts or sufferers or crowd wisdom merely find your page just because…you have a fancy tech-talk site which high Google traffic/cred.

    See, it’s this sort of power and influence that makes you think you can decide candidates for elections.

  67. Robert if your econ prof taught you that we are in a recession I’d ask for my tuition back. And # of links != accuracy or credibility

  68. Robert if your econ prof taught you that we are in a recession I’d ask for my tuition back. And # of links != accuracy or credibility

  69. Robert– I’m rather astounded how little comment there is about the R word. Yes, we are in big big economic trouble… even it you still have a job, many do not. Grocery bills are climbing along with gas bills. For the working people the deliver all your services, driving to work means cutting back on groceries. Bills are not being paid and anxiety must be intense. I know Bush is still president, but can’t we call a Recession a Recession. Mission Accomplished!

  70. Robert– I’m rather astounded how little comment there is about the R word. Yes, we are in big big economic trouble… even it you still have a job, many do not. Grocery bills are climbing along with gas bills. For the working people the deliver all your services, driving to work means cutting back on groceries. Bills are not being paid and anxiety must be intense. I know Bush is still president, but can’t we call a Recession a Recession. Mission Accomplished!

  71. Of course, if you measure it in Euros…

    I love that, going to quote it.

    Question: What do late-adopters call themselves? They’re not generally aware they’re in that category. It’s a term we’ve coined for them. Would be cool to use a term they identify with.

    I try to address everyone at the same level in my posts (though my posts lately are Twitter-centric). Early, late, or random passerby, each visitor is simply there to learn.

  72. Of course, if you measure it in Euros…

    I love that, going to quote it.

    Question: What do late-adopters call themselves? They’re not generally aware they’re in that category. It’s a term we’ve coined for them. Would be cool to use a term they identify with.

    I try to address everyone at the same level in my posts (though my posts lately are Twitter-centric). Early, late, or random passerby, each visitor is simply there to learn.

  73. I’ve always been an early adopter. I used linkedin, etc. to keep up with my friends and colleagues who are also on there.

    Haven’t used Twitter yet, see no need to do so. I do read many RSS feeds and even have a few of my own.

  74. I’ve always been an early adopter. I used linkedin, etc. to keep up with my friends and colleagues who are also on there.

    Haven’t used Twitter yet, see no need to do so. I do read many RSS feeds and even have a few of my own.

  75. Here comes the late commenter/economic teacher:

    - a recession is a temporary reduction in economic output; ‘temporary’ is defined by US authorities as ‘two consecutive quarters’ — as it’s been eight months, you have all the official blessings to use the word;
    - a depression is a sustained reduction in output — USA might be starting to experience one, but you have to wait for more bad news to say so.
    There is no official limit between the two, although after year, you hardly can expect a speady recovery.
    What is not well defined is an economic standstill, or rather a growth not significant enough to be considered positive or negative; Scoble, you seem to be assuming this is the current situation: it is in many countries, but not in the USA.

    - having your money representing less is called ‘an inflation’; the opposite is ‘a deflation’; the word itself doesn’t assume anything about why;

    - if the prices on a market drop, it is a deflation; ‘why’ requires assumtions :
    * because of a bubble, then it is a ‘bust’;
    * because of a real, sudden change in economic value, in which case it is a ‘drop caused by exogenous event’.

    Your pick is: was it reasonnable to have 15$/bar. oil in 2003, when billions opposed the Iraq invasion in vain, describing how violence in the region never lowered oil prices?

    As you can see, what you describe seems contradictory: are prices going up or down?
    Suburban real-estate is complementary to oil: its consumption, and therefore value, is moving in the opposite direction of gas prices. What might be a better measure of USA’s economic situation is the output without oil “artificial” (exogenous) increase — and it should be far worst then what is officially described; sorting price effects on the rest of the economy draws an even grimmer picture.

    Both of what you describe are only true for the American market: if you look at the wheat-to-gold or the oil-to-gold ratio, the prices are significantly going up, but not in the proportions you describe. The global total real-estate investment, has been historically high, and what you have seen recently is nothing more then a cooling, a deceleration. The current situation on the American market are not news to anyone who realised no country can borrow trillions and not produce anything with it.

    All these situations can legitimately be called with other words (including you anagram) most of which I would refrain to use — but if you want to be simple & accurate, talk about “a recession caused by exogenous inflation”.

    Regarding “late adopters” or “mass marketing”, either expressions imply a given relevant market — and there are currently orders of magnitude of difference between the PC (Facebook) and the mobile (Twitter) users. I wouldn’t use them, but rather define their asset and skills.
    What seems to be missing in your Google-world is YouTube, and e-mail. The company is still unanimouly leading among people with access to internet.

  76. Here comes the late commenter/economic teacher:

    - a recession is a temporary reduction in economic output; ‘temporary’ is defined by US authorities as ‘two consecutive quarters’ — as it’s been eight months, you have all the official blessings to use the word;
    - a depression is a sustained reduction in output — USA might be starting to experience one, but you have to wait for more bad news to say so.
    There is no official limit between the two, although after year, you hardly can expect a speady recovery.
    What is not well defined is an economic standstill, or rather a growth not significant enough to be considered positive or negative; Scoble, you seem to be assuming this is the current situation: it is in many countries, but not in the USA.

    - having your money representing less is called ‘an inflation’; the opposite is ‘a deflation’; the word itself doesn’t assume anything about why;

    - if the prices on a market drop, it is a deflation; ‘why’ requires assumtions :
    * because of a bubble, then it is a ‘bust’;
    * because of a real, sudden change in economic value, in which case it is a ‘drop caused by exogenous event’.

    Your pick is: was it reasonnable to have 15$/bar. oil in 2003, when billions opposed the Iraq invasion in vain, describing how violence in the region never lowered oil prices?

    As you can see, what you describe seems contradictory: are prices going up or down?
    Suburban real-estate is complementary to oil: its consumption, and therefore value, is moving in the opposite direction of gas prices. What might be a better measure of USA’s economic situation is the output without oil “artificial” (exogenous) increase — and it should be far worst then what is officially described; sorting price effects on the rest of the economy draws an even grimmer picture.

    Both of what you describe are only true for the American market: if you look at the wheat-to-gold or the oil-to-gold ratio, the prices are significantly going up, but not in the proportions you describe. The global total real-estate investment, has been historically high, and what you have seen recently is nothing more then a cooling, a deceleration. The current situation on the American market are not news to anyone who realised no country can borrow trillions and not produce anything with it.

    All these situations can legitimately be called with other words (including you anagram) most of which I would refrain to use — but if you want to be simple & accurate, talk about “a recession caused by exogenous inflation”.

    Regarding “late adopters” or “mass marketing”, either expressions imply a given relevant market — and there are currently orders of magnitude of difference between the PC (Facebook) and the mobile (Twitter) users. I wouldn’t use them, but rather define their asset and skills.
    What seems to be missing in your Google-world is YouTube, and e-mail. The company is still unanimouly leading among people with access to internet.

  77. Just read these comments – really interesting!

    Regarding Twitter, I gave my Twitter name (Jimconnolly) on the front page of my new blog http://theideasblog.com and asked my readers to add me to their Twitter account, if they wanted to.

    The two things I discovered was:
    1. The people who added me, use Twitter for everything from listing job vacancies to advertising their podcasts. Very few are from here in the UK.

    2. Most of my readers (it’s an ideas sharing blog) generally don’t even have a Twitter account. I have had loads of email from people asking ‘what’s Twitter?’.

    Interesting eh?

    Jim Connolly
    The Ideas Blog

  78. Just read these comments – really interesting!

    Regarding Twitter, I gave my Twitter name (Jimconnolly) on the front page of my new blog http://theideasblog.com and asked my readers to add me to their Twitter account, if they wanted to.

    The two things I discovered was:
    1. The people who added me, use Twitter for everything from listing job vacancies to advertising their podcasts. Very few are from here in the UK.

    2. Most of my readers (it’s an ideas sharing blog) generally don’t even have a Twitter account. I have had loads of email from people asking ‘what’s Twitter?’.

    Interesting eh?

    Jim Connolly
    The Ideas Blog

  79. Even the term “late adopters” is condensing tripe.

    But you get “it” thus art special, and anointed by God — however, everyone else, who doesn’t get it, is “late” and obviously in league with the Devil. Welcome to your new Cult, hope you like the accommodations, complete with 250 traffic-linking brown-nosers at your service.

    Technology is meant to have a purpose, a means to an end, that purpose varies by individual, some like it for it’s own sake, others want it to actually function so they can produce something else.

    The fact that some people aren’t using your current shiny toys, right this second, simply means you haven’t met or fulfilled a need. And 95% of the stuff getting Techcrunch nods won’t ever scale or meet those needs.

  80. Even the term “late adopters” is condensing tripe.

    But you get “it” thus art special, and anointed by God — however, everyone else, who doesn’t get it, is “late” and obviously in league with the Devil. Welcome to your new Cult, hope you like the accommodations, complete with 250 traffic-linking brown-nosers at your service.

    Technology is meant to have a purpose, a means to an end, that purpose varies by individual, some like it for it’s own sake, others want it to actually function so they can produce something else.

    The fact that some people aren’t using your current shiny toys, right this second, simply means you haven’t met or fulfilled a need. And 95% of the stuff getting Techcrunch nods won’t ever scale or meet those needs.

  81. @scobleizer you are totally right that we live in a late adopter Google world. That’s why I think businesses optimized for Google are much better than those optimized for FriendFeed. I’m as addicted to social media as the next guy so I’ll keep learning and having fun. But with the recession coming I’m sure glad I’m targeting lots of late adopters with money in their pockets. Still want the pitch on Twitter? ;) enjoy maker faire!

  82. @scobleizer you are totally right that we live in a late adopter Google world. That’s why I think businesses optimized for Google are much better than those optimized for FriendFeed. I’m as addicted to social media as the next guy so I’ll keep learning and having fun. But with the recession coming I’m sure glad I’m targeting lots of late adopters with money in their pockets. Still want the pitch on Twitter? ;) enjoy maker faire!

  83. I am sorry, Twitter and Friend feed are hobbies. They most likely will not revolutionize the world. The late adopters you are talking about will probably never get involved in them.

    Why?

    Because they took too much time for not enough benefit. I can communicate in Facebook or Email what I can communicate in Twitter. Facebook is great because it helps you reconnect with old friends and share with your current friends. But, twitter and Friendfeed, like someone said above take a lot of work to really get a benefit.

    You must remember people in this world are into different things. Some collect stamps and some stay online and broadcast themselves online 24/7.

    Is there anything wrong with Twitter or Friendfeed know, but it will not change the world, because they are very targeted to a niche audience, who want to spend their whole lives online.

    Of course I could be wrong about this. Twitter and Friendfeed will grow in popularity but they will never reach the mass adoption of google which prides itself on only taking up a small portion of your day.

  84. I am sorry, Twitter and Friend feed are hobbies. They most likely will not revolutionize the world. The late adopters you are talking about will probably never get involved in them.

    Why?

    Because they took too much time for not enough benefit. I can communicate in Facebook or Email what I can communicate in Twitter. Facebook is great because it helps you reconnect with old friends and share with your current friends. But, twitter and Friendfeed, like someone said above take a lot of work to really get a benefit.

    You must remember people in this world are into different things. Some collect stamps and some stay online and broadcast themselves online 24/7.

    Is there anything wrong with Twitter or Friendfeed know, but it will not change the world, because they are very targeted to a niche audience, who want to spend their whole lives online.

    Of course I could be wrong about this. Twitter and Friendfeed will grow in popularity but they will never reach the mass adoption of google which prides itself on only taking up a small portion of your day.

  85. Post doesn’t really seem to add any real value to anything other than disguise more search engine gaming.

    Twitter and Friendfeed hardly define early adopters…really just focuses in on those that have far too much time available to them…god bless them all as they continue to make a lot of us very wealthy…

    1 tweet per second = lame and also inherantly identifies a service with a limited life.

  86. Post doesn’t really seem to add any real value to anything other than disguise more search engine gaming.

    Twitter and Friendfeed hardly define early adopters…really just focuses in on those that have far too much time available to them…god bless them all as they continue to make a lot of us very wealthy…

    1 tweet per second = lame and also inherantly identifies a service with a limited life.

  87. Hello there. I was sent a link to your blog by a friend a while ago. I have been reading a long for a while now. Just wanted to say HI. Thanks for putting in all the hard work.

    neo

  88. Hello there. I was sent a link to your blog by a friend a while ago. I have been reading a long for a while now. Just wanted to say HI. Thanks for putting in all the hard work.

    neo