YHOO/MSFT/GOOG: the market speaks

May 5, 2008 By

Ballmer and Microsoft are the losers. Yahoo and Google win. See the chart from the day when Microsoft announced it was trying to buy Yahoo.

Now do you understand why Bloomberg says that there’s new pressure on Ballmer?

And why Ballmer is now out in the press trying to pitch that Microsoft has an Internet strategy?

Filed Under: technology industry Tagged With: , ,
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  • http://www.acthompson.net/ Alfred Thompson

    I don’t think this is over yet. I think that is what the market said yesterday as well. I don’t know if YHOO is undervalued or not. I do think that MSFT trying to buy it did convince a lot of people that it was undervalued before the buy out offer. Now the ball is in Yahoo’s court to prove it. MSFT is something I think too many people price on emotion rather than reality. I think the same about Google. There is much too much of that driving the market, especially lately. I don’t trust the market to pick winners and losers anymore. It’s all legal gambling these days.

  • http://www.acthompson.net Alfred Thompson

    I don’t think this is over yet. I think that is what the market said yesterday as well. I don’t know if YHOO is undervalued or not. I do think that MSFT trying to buy it did convince a lot of people that it was undervalued before the buy out offer. Now the ball is in Yahoo’s court to prove it. MSFT is something I think too many people price on emotion rather than reality. I think the same about Google. There is much too much of that driving the market, especially lately. I don’t trust the market to pick winners and losers anymore. It’s all legal gambling these days.

  • AM

    Hey at least developers like Microsoft’s Web 2.0 platform more than Google, Yahoo or Facebook: http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9082558&intsrc=news_ts_head

  • AM

    Hey at least developers like Microsoft’s Web 2.0 platform more than Google, Yahoo or Facebook: http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9082558&intsrc=news_ts_head

  • robnorman

    http://robnorman.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/yahoo-what-happens-next/

    Yahoo! What happens next?
    Microsoft has pulled its bid. Yahoo stock tumbles. And the winner is…………. Well, to start let’s not rule out the transaction happening anyway. The Microsoft bid now looks much better than it did 48 hours ago for most Yahoo shareholders so a return to the table with or without the Yahoo management is a distinct possibility.

    As for Yahoo’s options, there are many but a Google transaction cannot be one of them. The principle applied to determining monopolistic control of a market has to do with the potential to abuse a monopolistic position. It is crystal clear that such opportunity exists which is not to say that Google has any intent to excercise that potential. The more subtle question is at what point such a position can be determined to exist.

    Let’s say for a moment that Chevron and Exxon Mobil decided to combine the distribution and retailing of gasoline in all states beginning with the letter D without merging the companies. Monopoly or not? What if it was all states A through D? Even if the scenario led to a benefit of lower prices at the pump it has the potential for price fixing and price increases with or without a full merger.

    You can see where this is going. Imagine that all the keywords A through D on all of Google and Yahoo were subject to a single bid process the same situation exists. In my view you can no more execute this partial merger than conceive a partial pregnancy. You are or you ain’t.

    Today the market is confused and that needs to stop for the benefit of all the players. The FCC, and or the DOJ, needs to show its hand preemptively. If it is minded to allow a merger then the market and marketers should be given an audience. If it is minded to stop it the market should be informed to remove a wild card from the process that is causing massive swings in shareholder value at a time in the economic cycle when focus rather than distraction are required.

  • robnorman

    http://robnorman.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/yahoo-what-happens-next/

    Yahoo! What happens next?
    Microsoft has pulled its bid. Yahoo stock tumbles. And the winner is…………. Well, to start let’s not rule out the transaction happening anyway. The Microsoft bid now looks much better than it did 48 hours ago for most Yahoo shareholders so a return to the table with or without the Yahoo management is a distinct possibility.

    As for Yahoo’s options, there are many but a Google transaction cannot be one of them. The principle applied to determining monopolistic control of a market has to do with the potential to abuse a monopolistic position. It is crystal clear that such opportunity exists which is not to say that Google has any intent to excercise that potential. The more subtle question is at what point such a position can be determined to exist.

    Let’s say for a moment that Chevron and Exxon Mobil decided to combine the distribution and retailing of gasoline in all states beginning with the letter D without merging the companies. Monopoly or not? What if it was all states A through D? Even if the scenario led to a benefit of lower prices at the pump it has the potential for price fixing and price increases with or without a full merger.

    You can see where this is going. Imagine that all the keywords A through D on all of Google and Yahoo were subject to a single bid process the same situation exists. In my view you can no more execute this partial merger than conceive a partial pregnancy. You are or you ain’t.

    Today the market is confused and that needs to stop for the benefit of all the players. The FCC, and or the DOJ, needs to show its hand preemptively. If it is minded to allow a merger then the market and marketers should be given an audience. If it is minded to stop it the market should be informed to remove a wild card from the process that is causing massive swings in shareholder value at a time in the economic cycle when focus rather than distraction are required.

  • GearsofWar

    Interesting how Scoble makes the call on the deal based on an actual datum point (the stock prices-as good a measure as any), and the detractors counter with…opinion on how wrong he is.

    The fact is, everyone on Saturday predicted Yahoo’s stock would plummet to pre-deal price, and it didn’t. So the stock was a useful datum point on Saturday, until it didn’t show what detractors wanted to see, so now its not?

  • GearsofWar

    Interesting how Scoble makes the call on the deal based on an actual datum point (the stock prices-as good a measure as any), and the detractors counter with…opinion on how wrong he is.

    The fact is, everyone on Saturday predicted Yahoo’s stock would plummet to pre-deal price, and it didn’t. So the stock was a useful datum point on Saturday, until it didn’t show what detractors wanted to see, so now its not?

  • http://www.creditandmortgageindex.com/ Bad credit loan

    Well, the fact is that there is a winner and that’s no one else but Google!

    Why? Because, their share value will increase. I mean, we all know that the kind of increase we have seen in the past is not going to stay forever but their share values will increase none the less and for now, the interest search is still divided into three pieces. Google, Yahoo and MSN. Sure Google leads wayyy ahead but an MS-YAHOO merger would have meant greater competition and I bet they would have also taken YPN worldwide to combate Google Adsense/Adwords.

    This news has been the headline (business) news around the globe and I am sure because MS pulling out of the deal, a lot of people must be feeling disappointing including Yahoo’s own employees but that’s just a guess, I could be wrong though. The point is, Google is the ultimate winner here. They can safely continue making billions via PPC advertising and their stock holders are going to stay happy for a long time :)

  • http://www.creditandmortgageindex.com Bad credit loan

    Well, the fact is that there is a winner and that’s no one else but Google!

    Why? Because, their share value will increase. I mean, we all know that the kind of increase we have seen in the past is not going to stay forever but their share values will increase none the less and for now, the interest search is still divided into three pieces. Google, Yahoo and MSN. Sure Google leads wayyy ahead but an MS-YAHOO merger would have meant greater competition and I bet they would have also taken YPN worldwide to combate Google Adsense/Adwords.

    This news has been the headline (business) news around the globe and I am sure because MS pulling out of the deal, a lot of people must be feeling disappointing including Yahoo’s own employees but that’s just a guess, I could be wrong though. The point is, Google is the ultimate winner here. They can safely continue making billions via PPC advertising and their stock holders are going to stay happy for a long time :)

  • Sarav

    Yahoo! is now arguably in better shape than it was three months ago.
    I am sure, Yahoo! will ultimately be the Winner !

  • Sarav

    Yahoo! is now arguably in better shape than it was three months ago.
    I am sure, Yahoo! will ultimately be the Winner !

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