YHOO/MSFT/GOOG: the market speaks

May 5, 2008 By

Ballmer and Microsoft are the losers. Yahoo and Google win. See the chart from the day when Microsoft announced it was trying to buy Yahoo.

Now do you understand why Bloomberg says that there’s new pressure on Ballmer?

And why Ballmer is now out in the press trying to pitch that Microsoft has an Internet strategy?

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  • http://www.frankhaywood.com/ Frank Haywood

    I’m no Google fanboi, but I use MS products because I have to, not because I want to. I don’t believe I’m alone in that, and that’s a severe indictment of a company that has too long felt it could do whatever it wanted to its customers and business partners and get away with it.

    Mud sticks.

    That’s my primary reason for using Google / Yahoo. I don’t see whatever MS can do in the next 12 months will change my feeling.

    -Frank Haywood

  • http://www.frankhaywood.com/ Frank Haywood

    I’m no Google fanboi, but I use MS products because I have to, not because I want to. I don’t believe I’m alone in that, and that’s a severe indictment of a company that has too long felt it could do whatever it wanted to its customers and business partners and get away with it.

    Mud sticks.

    That’s my primary reason for using Google / Yahoo. I don’t see whatever MS can do in the next 12 months will change my feeling.

    -Frank Haywood

  • Alex Williams

    Robert – Ballmer is reacting, trying to prevent the analysts from popping his balloon. Jerry Yang has a lot of courage to stand up like he did. Seems like a watershed moment. The users win!Pop!

  • http://iterasi/blogspot.com Alex Williams

    Robert – Ballmer is reacting, trying to prevent the analysts from popping his balloon. Jerry Yang has a lot of courage to stand up like he did. Seems like a watershed moment. The users win!Pop!

  • Pingback: Another Brilliant Scoble Linkbait: This Time on MSFT/YHOO/GOOG « SmoothSpan Blog

  • http://www.smoothspan.com/index.html smoothspan

    Good linkbait here Scobe, I love to watch you work, but I don’t think so. Your stock chart just shows the world doesn’t think the deal is over. When it becomes clear that it is, Yahoo’s line goes South and Microsoft’s goes North.

    Who else is gonna pay so many billions for Yahoo? Nobody.

    And Ballmer is playing cards here. His feelings are hurt that Yahoo hated the idea so much of joining up against common enemy Google. He’ll move on. Amazon is a better purchase choice for Microsoft anyway. What better way to own the Cloud Computing platform?

    More on my blog:

    http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/another-brilliant-scoble-linkbait-this-time-on-msftyhoogoog/

  • http://www.smoothspan.com/index.html smoothspan

    Good linkbait here Scobe, I love to watch you work, but I don’t think so. Your stock chart just shows the world doesn’t think the deal is over. When it becomes clear that it is, Yahoo’s line goes South and Microsoft’s goes North.

    Who else is gonna pay so many billions for Yahoo? Nobody.

    And Ballmer is playing cards here. His feelings are hurt that Yahoo hated the idea so much of joining up against common enemy Google. He’ll move on. Amazon is a better purchase choice for Microsoft anyway. What better way to own the Cloud Computing platform?

    More on my blog:

    http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/another-brilliant-scoble-linkbait-this-time-on-msftyhoogoog/

  • http://www.psynixis.com/blog/ Simon Brocklehurst

    Yes, Robert, the market has spoken. I think, maybe, you didn’t hear what it said ;-)

    Yahoo! certainly hasn’t emerged a winner from this. Don’t confuse the market speculating that Yahoo! is still in play with it having some kind of new-found belief in Yahoo!’s ability to execute.

  • http://www.psynixis.com/blog/ Simon Brocklehurst

    Yes, Robert, the market has spoken. I think, maybe, you didn’t hear what it said ;-)

    Yahoo! certainly hasn’t emerged a winner from this. Don’t confuse the market speculating that Yahoo! is still in play with it having some kind of new-found belief in Yahoo!’s ability to execute.

  • Praveen

    Yahoo stock being just down 5$ or so is just short term as the market is expecting the deal to go through. If nothing materializes in 2 weeks the price will come down to 20$ range.

  • Praveen

    Yahoo stock being just down 5$ or so is just short term as the market is expecting the deal to go through. If nothing materializes in 2 weeks the price will come down to 20$ range.

  • Christopher Coulter

    Are you nuts? Yahoo fell to a TWO YEAR low.

    No winners, just two losers, becoming more lost. Ballmer would have destroyed it, taking large parts of Microsoft with it, and the shareholders will destroy Yang. Now watch Microsoft cry to the DOJ when Yahoo partners with Google or AOL.

    Microsoft overbid, and left Yahoo looking weak, so they couldn’t save face looking strong, so Yahoo had to push it to unrealistic levels, saving face by saying their Asian operations warranted more. Had Ballmer not been such a temper-tantrum bully it could have worked, and it still might, Microsoft picking up even cheaper, but even cheap it will become a loss. Crazy idea all around.

    Microsoft should forget the pointless Google-envy, and try to remember that they are a software company. They’d better focus on KDE4/Fedora 9…

  • Christopher Coulter

    Are you nuts? Yahoo fell to a TWO YEAR low.

    No winners, just two losers, becoming more lost. Ballmer would have destroyed it, taking large parts of Microsoft with it, and the shareholders will destroy Yang. Now watch Microsoft cry to the DOJ when Yahoo partners with Google or AOL.

    Microsoft overbid, and left Yahoo looking weak, so they couldn’t save face looking strong, so Yahoo had to push it to unrealistic levels, saving face by saying their Asian operations warranted more. Had Ballmer not been such a temper-tantrum bully it could have worked, and it still might, Microsoft picking up even cheaper, but even cheap it will become a loss. Crazy idea all around.

    Microsoft should forget the pointless Google-envy, and try to remember that they are a software company. They’d better focus on KDE4/Fedora 9…

  • John

    Ummm, what? YHOO down in the 14-20% today depending on when you were looking. Sure isn’t $37 a share either.

    GOOG was tripped up by some random firm saying they thought their click revenues would go down. Want to chart that dip in the stock?

  • John

    Ummm, what? YHOO down in the 14-20% today depending on when you were looking. Sure isn’t $37 a share either.

    GOOG was tripped up by some random firm saying they thought their click revenues would go down. Want to chart that dip in the stock?

  • Prokofy

    My Yahoo email still works, yes, and the Yahoo news page has bettter and better news videos on it I really watch. (If only I could share them on Twitter or FB instead of just within YM, I’d be happier).

    Windows Vista still continues to frustrate me after 6 months, I hate hate hate it, it’s so counterintuitive and clunky and I think it freezes my computer, too.

    So, sure, Ballmer is the loser, if you say so ROFL.

  • Prokofy

    My Yahoo email still works, yes, and the Yahoo news page has bettter and better news videos on it I really watch. (If only I could share them on Twitter or FB instead of just within YM, I’d be happier).

    Windows Vista still continues to frustrate me after 6 months, I hate hate hate it, it’s so counterintuitive and clunky and I think it freezes my computer, too.

    So, sure, Ballmer is the loser, if you say so ROFL.

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    I think the best reporting on the Microsoft-Yahoo deal has been from Newsweek. Rob Hof talked to Yang today:
    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/05/jerry_yang_spea_1.html

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    I think the best reporting on the Microsoft-Yahoo deal has been from Newsweek. Rob Hof talked to Yang today:
    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/05/jerry_yang_spea_1.html

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    I think the best reporting on the Microsoft-Yahoo deal has been by BusinessWeek. Rob Hof talked to Yang today:
    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/05/jerry_yang_spea_1.html

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    I think the best reporting on the Microsoft-Yahoo deal has been by BusinessWeek. Rob Hof talked to Yang today:
    http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/techbeat/archives/2008/05/jerry_yang_spea_1.html

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    Okay, what’s the deal? Why didn’t my comment post? No links allowed without approval or something???

  • http://dawnkey.wordpress.com/ dawnkey

    Okay, what’s the deal? Why didn’t my comment post? No links allowed without approval or something???

  • http://jjesse.wordpress.com/ Jonathan

    Really? I thought Yahoo was down 15% or so depending on when you checked. Is this the new web 2.0 statement of the “you can make statistics say anything” you can make online finance charts say anything you want depending on the criteria you use to cretae them?

    yes the market reacted to the news about Yahoo and Microsoft, Yahoo down 15%. This doesn’t make Google a winner

  • http://jjesse.wordpress.com/ Jonathan

    Really? I thought Yahoo was down 15% or so depending on when you checked. Is this the new web 2.0 statement of the “you can make statistics say anything” you can make online finance charts say anything you want depending on the criteria you use to cretae them?

    yes the market reacted to the news about Yahoo and Microsoft, Yahoo down 15%. This doesn’t make Google a winner

  • http://www.accidentaltechnologist.com/ Rob Bazinet

    Come on Robert, no way you believe this and if you do then your out-hyped yourself.

    Jerry Yang is an idiot for not taking the deal. He is not looking out for shareholders, he just doesn’t want he ego bruised for selling to Microsoft. Yahoo has been dying a slow death for so long now it has no where to go but to the grave alone. Microsoft is their savior, period.

    Yahoo is no winner no matter how you dice it, read your chart again and as @smoothspan said, this is market reaction to a deal they think isn’t done. Once the shareholders are done with Yahoo there will be nothing left, maybe MS can pick them up for pennies on the dollar then.

  • http://www.accidentaltechnologist.com Rob Bazinet

    Come on Robert, no way you believe this and if you do then your out-hyped yourself.

    Jerry Yang is an idiot for not taking the deal. He is not looking out for shareholders, he just doesn’t want he ego bruised for selling to Microsoft. Yahoo has been dying a slow death for so long now it has no where to go but to the grave alone. Microsoft is their savior, period.

    Yahoo is no winner no matter how you dice it, read your chart again and as @smoothspan said, this is market reaction to a deal they think isn’t done. Once the shareholders are done with Yahoo there will be nothing left, maybe MS can pick them up for pennies on the dollar then.

  • http://scobleizer.com/ Robert Scoble

    Rob: I’m just showing you what the market thinks. Personally, Microsoft DID add some value onto Yahoo buy focusing attention on it.

    And it did pay a price by not getting the deal done. Made Microsoft look a little incompetent. After all, if I try to do something, and fail, won’t you all be the first to jump up and join the nasty comments on Valleywag? Of course you will.

    Dawn: your comment got put into the spam bucket, sorry about that.

  • http://scobleizer.com/ Robert Scoble

    Rob: I’m just showing you what the market thinks. Personally, Microsoft DID add some value onto Yahoo buy focusing attention on it.

    And it did pay a price by not getting the deal done. Made Microsoft look a little incompetent. After all, if I try to do something, and fail, won’t you all be the first to jump up and join the nasty comments on Valleywag? Of course you will.

    Dawn: your comment got put into the spam bucket, sorry about that.

  • Pingback: ChangeForge… a catalyst to affect the paradigm » Are Microsoft and Yahoo! the Losers?

  • http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/ Ken Stewart

    Dude, you are correct in thinking that Google is the real winner here – but why do you base your proof off of the whims of the stock market?

    Yahoo! is gasping for air and will either have a blood transfusion in the form of a merger soon – or dye a horrible death conceding piece by piece to better, faster, and more able companies.

    Microsoft, on the other hand is simply acting stupid. You had it right in some of your other posts, but I just think basing decisions on the stock market’s reaction is – well – reactionary!

    http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/

  • http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/ Ken Stewart

    Dude, you are correct in thinking that Google is the real winner here – but why do you base your proof off of the whims of the stock market?

    Yahoo! is gasping for air and will either have a blood transfusion in the form of a merger soon – or dye a horrible death conceding piece by piece to better, faster, and more able companies.

    Microsoft, on the other hand is simply acting stupid. You had it right in some of your other posts, but I just think basing decisions on the stock market’s reaction is – well – reactionary!

    http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/

  • http://scobleizer.com/ Robert Scoble

    Ken: well, it’s the datapoint I had to work with today. Tomorrow? Something else.

  • http://scobleizer.com/ Robert Scoble

    Ken: well, it’s the datapoint I had to work with today. Tomorrow? Something else.

  • http://www.accidentaltechnologist.com/ Rob Bazinet

    @Robert First I am not a journalist and would join the foray into nasty comments on Valleywag. I am not trying to come across as nasty here either, I apologize if I sound that way.

    You are very right with MS drawing attention to Yahoo in this deal. I just don’t see how you might think Yahoo is the winner solely based on the market numbers. I think it should be clear people are still hoping for a deal. If there is no deal Yahoo is in trouble (imho) and they will look at the opportunity they missed, which will make them the loser in the long run.

    I think MS and Yahoo together complimented each other very well, almost like the hippy nerd and the business exec.

    Ballmer does look a bit tarnished at this point. Could he just be bluffing? He could be and with Yahoo facing legal action maybe MS can pick it up for a song, whouldn’t that rip Yang in the end?

    Anyway, thanks for replying to my comment.

  • http://www.accidentaltechnologist.com Rob Bazinet

    @Robert First I am not a journalist and would join the foray into nasty comments on Valleywag. I am not trying to come across as nasty here either, I apologize if I sound that way.

    You are very right with MS drawing attention to Yahoo in this deal. I just don’t see how you might think Yahoo is the winner solely based on the market numbers. I think it should be clear people are still hoping for a deal. If there is no deal Yahoo is in trouble (imho) and they will look at the opportunity they missed, which will make them the loser in the long run.

    I think MS and Yahoo together complimented each other very well, almost like the hippy nerd and the business exec.

    Ballmer does look a bit tarnished at this point. Could he just be bluffing? He could be and with Yahoo facing legal action maybe MS can pick it up for a song, whouldn’t that rip Yang in the end?

    Anyway, thanks for replying to my comment.

  • DotMac

    @smoothspan
    “Microsoft’s goes North”

    HAHAHAHAHAH

    M$ hasn’t gone anywhere in seven years!!!

    They are desperate and ballmer is running like a headless chicken.

    Drop the axe over ballmer!

  • DotMac

    @smoothspan
    “Microsoft’s goes North”

    HAHAHAHAHAH

    M$ hasn’t gone anywhere in seven years!!!

    They are desperate and ballmer is running like a headless chicken.

    Drop the axe over ballmer!

  • Jack Christopher

    Yahoo is undervalued.

    Yahoo is the second most popular site on the net. They are strong in advertising and can make a lot more money if they could shift their focus.

    This Wild West era of Web apps will eventually be reigned in by someone…why not Yahoo? Web apps have a hard time making money but Yahoo’s juicy advertising network integrated with Yahoo Pipes could be a hit.

    Web apps will go mainstream but through who? Google, Facebook, Amazon or Yahoo?

  • Jack Christopher

    Yahoo is undervalued.

    Yahoo is the second most popular site on the net. They are strong in advertising and can make a lot more money if they could shift their focus.

    This Wild West era of Web apps will eventually be reigned in by someone…why not Yahoo? Web apps have a hard time making money but Yahoo’s juicy advertising network integrated with Yahoo Pipes could be a hit.

    Web apps will go mainstream but through who? Google, Facebook, Amazon or Yahoo?

  • Steve

    Don’t know what’s more dangerous:ameteur financial analysts or amateur lawyers. You draw a conclusion from one data point? You are in the tech field,right? Just checking.

  • Steve

    Don’t know what’s more dangerous:ameteur financial analysts or amateur lawyers. You draw a conclusion from one data point? You are in the tech field,right? Just checking.

  • http://techwatch.reviewk.com/ Desmond Haynes, Jr.

    You are not serious when you are using the chart for your logic, are you? Please tell me you are not.
    I thought better of your analytical brains.
    -Des
    http://techwatch.reviewk.com/

  • http://techwatch.reviewk.com/ Desmond Haynes, Jr.

    You are not serious when you are using the chart for your logic, are you? Please tell me you are not.
    I thought better of your analytical brains.
    -Des
    http://techwatch.reviewk.com/

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  • http://www.techviews.co.uk/ James

    But the games not up yet. Jerry Yang has apparently taken a battering from Yahoo investors. I reckon this will <a href=”http://www.techviews.co.uk/news/yahoo-open-to-further-microsoft-talks/”all kick off again soon.

  • http://www.techviews.co.uk/ James

    But the games not up yet. Jerry Yang has apparently taken a battering from Yahoo investors. I reckon this will <a href=”http://www.techviews.co.uk/news/yahoo-open-to-further-microsoft-talks/”all kick off again soon.

  • deviate

    In the past 12 years online i can’t recall clicking on a single ad and buying anything.

    Robert, theres a lot more factored in the pricing of msft than how well microsoft is doing in the internet ad business. goog is priced for potential not return on share, as for yhoo the race to the bottom has only just started

  • deviate

    In the past 12 years online i can’t recall clicking on a single ad and buying anything.

    Robert, theres a lot more factored in the pricing of msft than how well microsoft is doing in the internet ad business. goog is priced for potential not return on share, as for yhoo the race to the bottom has only just started

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