Comments

  1. I’m no Google fanboi, but I use MS products because I have to, not because I want to. I don’t believe I’m alone in that, and that’s a severe indictment of a company that has too long felt it could do whatever it wanted to its customers and business partners and get away with it.

    Mud sticks.

    That’s my primary reason for using Google / Yahoo. I don’t see whatever MS can do in the next 12 months will change my feeling.

    -Frank Haywood

  2. I’m no Google fanboi, but I use MS products because I have to, not because I want to. I don’t believe I’m alone in that, and that’s a severe indictment of a company that has too long felt it could do whatever it wanted to its customers and business partners and get away with it.

    Mud sticks.

    That’s my primary reason for using Google / Yahoo. I don’t see whatever MS can do in the next 12 months will change my feeling.

    -Frank Haywood

  3. Robert – Ballmer is reacting, trying to prevent the analysts from popping his balloon. Jerry Yang has a lot of courage to stand up like he did. Seems like a watershed moment. The users win!Pop!

  4. Robert – Ballmer is reacting, trying to prevent the analysts from popping his balloon. Jerry Yang has a lot of courage to stand up like he did. Seems like a watershed moment. The users win!Pop!

  5. Good linkbait here Scobe, I love to watch you work, but I don’t think so. Your stock chart just shows the world doesn’t think the deal is over. When it becomes clear that it is, Yahoo’s line goes South and Microsoft’s goes North.

    Who else is gonna pay so many billions for Yahoo? Nobody.

    And Ballmer is playing cards here. His feelings are hurt that Yahoo hated the idea so much of joining up against common enemy Google. He’ll move on. Amazon is a better purchase choice for Microsoft anyway. What better way to own the Cloud Computing platform?

    More on my blog:

    http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/another-brilliant-scoble-linkbait-this-time-on-msftyhoogoog/

  6. Good linkbait here Scobe, I love to watch you work, but I don’t think so. Your stock chart just shows the world doesn’t think the deal is over. When it becomes clear that it is, Yahoo’s line goes South and Microsoft’s goes North.

    Who else is gonna pay so many billions for Yahoo? Nobody.

    And Ballmer is playing cards here. His feelings are hurt that Yahoo hated the idea so much of joining up against common enemy Google. He’ll move on. Amazon is a better purchase choice for Microsoft anyway. What better way to own the Cloud Computing platform?

    More on my blog:

    http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/another-brilliant-scoble-linkbait-this-time-on-msftyhoogoog/

  7. Yes, Robert, the market has spoken. I think, maybe, you didn’t hear what it said ;-)

    Yahoo! certainly hasn’t emerged a winner from this. Don’t confuse the market speculating that Yahoo! is still in play with it having some kind of new-found belief in Yahoo!’s ability to execute.

  8. Yes, Robert, the market has spoken. I think, maybe, you didn’t hear what it said ;-)

    Yahoo! certainly hasn’t emerged a winner from this. Don’t confuse the market speculating that Yahoo! is still in play with it having some kind of new-found belief in Yahoo!’s ability to execute.

  9. Yahoo stock being just down 5$ or so is just short term as the market is expecting the deal to go through. If nothing materializes in 2 weeks the price will come down to 20$ range.

  10. Yahoo stock being just down 5$ or so is just short term as the market is expecting the deal to go through. If nothing materializes in 2 weeks the price will come down to 20$ range.

  11. Are you nuts? Yahoo fell to a TWO YEAR low.

    No winners, just two losers, becoming more lost. Ballmer would have destroyed it, taking large parts of Microsoft with it, and the shareholders will destroy Yang. Now watch Microsoft cry to the DOJ when Yahoo partners with Google or AOL.

    Microsoft overbid, and left Yahoo looking weak, so they couldn’t save face looking strong, so Yahoo had to push it to unrealistic levels, saving face by saying their Asian operations warranted more. Had Ballmer not been such a temper-tantrum bully it could have worked, and it still might, Microsoft picking up even cheaper, but even cheap it will become a loss. Crazy idea all around.

    Microsoft should forget the pointless Google-envy, and try to remember that they are a software company. They’d better focus on KDE4/Fedora 9…

  12. Are you nuts? Yahoo fell to a TWO YEAR low.

    No winners, just two losers, becoming more lost. Ballmer would have destroyed it, taking large parts of Microsoft with it, and the shareholders will destroy Yang. Now watch Microsoft cry to the DOJ when Yahoo partners with Google or AOL.

    Microsoft overbid, and left Yahoo looking weak, so they couldn’t save face looking strong, so Yahoo had to push it to unrealistic levels, saving face by saying their Asian operations warranted more. Had Ballmer not been such a temper-tantrum bully it could have worked, and it still might, Microsoft picking up even cheaper, but even cheap it will become a loss. Crazy idea all around.

    Microsoft should forget the pointless Google-envy, and try to remember that they are a software company. They’d better focus on KDE4/Fedora 9…

  13. Ummm, what? YHOO down in the 14-20% today depending on when you were looking. Sure isn’t $37 a share either.

    GOOG was tripped up by some random firm saying they thought their click revenues would go down. Want to chart that dip in the stock?

  14. Ummm, what? YHOO down in the 14-20% today depending on when you were looking. Sure isn’t $37 a share either.

    GOOG was tripped up by some random firm saying they thought their click revenues would go down. Want to chart that dip in the stock?

  15. My Yahoo email still works, yes, and the Yahoo news page has bettter and better news videos on it I really watch. (If only I could share them on Twitter or FB instead of just within YM, I’d be happier).

    Windows Vista still continues to frustrate me after 6 months, I hate hate hate it, it’s so counterintuitive and clunky and I think it freezes my computer, too.

    So, sure, Ballmer is the loser, if you say so ROFL.

  16. My Yahoo email still works, yes, and the Yahoo news page has bettter and better news videos on it I really watch. (If only I could share them on Twitter or FB instead of just within YM, I’d be happier).

    Windows Vista still continues to frustrate me after 6 months, I hate hate hate it, it’s so counterintuitive and clunky and I think it freezes my computer, too.

    So, sure, Ballmer is the loser, if you say so ROFL.

  17. Really? I thought Yahoo was down 15% or so depending on when you checked. Is this the new web 2.0 statement of the “you can make statistics say anything” you can make online finance charts say anything you want depending on the criteria you use to cretae them?

    yes the market reacted to the news about Yahoo and Microsoft, Yahoo down 15%. This doesn’t make Google a winner

  18. Really? I thought Yahoo was down 15% or so depending on when you checked. Is this the new web 2.0 statement of the “you can make statistics say anything” you can make online finance charts say anything you want depending on the criteria you use to cretae them?

    yes the market reacted to the news about Yahoo and Microsoft, Yahoo down 15%. This doesn’t make Google a winner

  19. Come on Robert, no way you believe this and if you do then your out-hyped yourself.

    Jerry Yang is an idiot for not taking the deal. He is not looking out for shareholders, he just doesn’t want he ego bruised for selling to Microsoft. Yahoo has been dying a slow death for so long now it has no where to go but to the grave alone. Microsoft is their savior, period.

    Yahoo is no winner no matter how you dice it, read your chart again and as @smoothspan said, this is market reaction to a deal they think isn’t done. Once the shareholders are done with Yahoo there will be nothing left, maybe MS can pick them up for pennies on the dollar then.

  20. Come on Robert, no way you believe this and if you do then your out-hyped yourself.

    Jerry Yang is an idiot for not taking the deal. He is not looking out for shareholders, he just doesn’t want he ego bruised for selling to Microsoft. Yahoo has been dying a slow death for so long now it has no where to go but to the grave alone. Microsoft is their savior, period.

    Yahoo is no winner no matter how you dice it, read your chart again and as @smoothspan said, this is market reaction to a deal they think isn’t done. Once the shareholders are done with Yahoo there will be nothing left, maybe MS can pick them up for pennies on the dollar then.

  21. Rob: I’m just showing you what the market thinks. Personally, Microsoft DID add some value onto Yahoo buy focusing attention on it.

    And it did pay a price by not getting the deal done. Made Microsoft look a little incompetent. After all, if I try to do something, and fail, won’t you all be the first to jump up and join the nasty comments on Valleywag? Of course you will.

    Dawn: your comment got put into the spam bucket, sorry about that.

  22. Rob: I’m just showing you what the market thinks. Personally, Microsoft DID add some value onto Yahoo buy focusing attention on it.

    And it did pay a price by not getting the deal done. Made Microsoft look a little incompetent. After all, if I try to do something, and fail, won’t you all be the first to jump up and join the nasty comments on Valleywag? Of course you will.

    Dawn: your comment got put into the spam bucket, sorry about that.

  23. Dude, you are correct in thinking that Google is the real winner here – but why do you base your proof off of the whims of the stock market?

    Yahoo! is gasping for air and will either have a blood transfusion in the form of a merger soon – or dye a horrible death conceding piece by piece to better, faster, and more able companies.

    Microsoft, on the other hand is simply acting stupid. You had it right in some of your other posts, but I just think basing decisions on the stock market’s reaction is – well – reactionary!

    http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/

  24. Dude, you are correct in thinking that Google is the real winner here – but why do you base your proof off of the whims of the stock market?

    Yahoo! is gasping for air and will either have a blood transfusion in the form of a merger soon – or dye a horrible death conceding piece by piece to better, faster, and more able companies.

    Microsoft, on the other hand is simply acting stupid. You had it right in some of your other posts, but I just think basing decisions on the stock market’s reaction is – well – reactionary!

    http://www.changeforge.com/2008/05/05/are-microsoft-and-yahoo-the-losers/

  25. @Robert First I am not a journalist and would join the foray into nasty comments on Valleywag. I am not trying to come across as nasty here either, I apologize if I sound that way.

    You are very right with MS drawing attention to Yahoo in this deal. I just don’t see how you might think Yahoo is the winner solely based on the market numbers. I think it should be clear people are still hoping for a deal. If there is no deal Yahoo is in trouble (imho) and they will look at the opportunity they missed, which will make them the loser in the long run.

    I think MS and Yahoo together complimented each other very well, almost like the hippy nerd and the business exec.

    Ballmer does look a bit tarnished at this point. Could he just be bluffing? He could be and with Yahoo facing legal action maybe MS can pick it up for a song, whouldn’t that rip Yang in the end?

    Anyway, thanks for replying to my comment.

  26. @Robert First I am not a journalist and would join the foray into nasty comments on Valleywag. I am not trying to come across as nasty here either, I apologize if I sound that way.

    You are very right with MS drawing attention to Yahoo in this deal. I just don’t see how you might think Yahoo is the winner solely based on the market numbers. I think it should be clear people are still hoping for a deal. If there is no deal Yahoo is in trouble (imho) and they will look at the opportunity they missed, which will make them the loser in the long run.

    I think MS and Yahoo together complimented each other very well, almost like the hippy nerd and the business exec.

    Ballmer does look a bit tarnished at this point. Could he just be bluffing? He could be and with Yahoo facing legal action maybe MS can pick it up for a song, whouldn’t that rip Yang in the end?

    Anyway, thanks for replying to my comment.

  27. @smoothspan
    “Microsoft’s goes North”

    HAHAHAHAHAH

    M$ hasn’t gone anywhere in seven years!!!

    They are desperate and ballmer is running like a headless chicken.

    Drop the axe over ballmer!

  28. @smoothspan
    “Microsoft’s goes North”

    HAHAHAHAHAH

    M$ hasn’t gone anywhere in seven years!!!

    They are desperate and ballmer is running like a headless chicken.

    Drop the axe over ballmer!

  29. Yahoo is undervalued.

    Yahoo is the second most popular site on the net. They are strong in advertising and can make a lot more money if they could shift their focus.

    This Wild West era of Web apps will eventually be reigned in by someone…why not Yahoo? Web apps have a hard time making money but Yahoo’s juicy advertising network integrated with Yahoo Pipes could be a hit.

    Web apps will go mainstream but through who? Google, Facebook, Amazon or Yahoo?

  30. Yahoo is undervalued.

    Yahoo is the second most popular site on the net. They are strong in advertising and can make a lot more money if they could shift their focus.

    This Wild West era of Web apps will eventually be reigned in by someone…why not Yahoo? Web apps have a hard time making money but Yahoo’s juicy advertising network integrated with Yahoo Pipes could be a hit.

    Web apps will go mainstream but through who? Google, Facebook, Amazon or Yahoo?

  31. Don’t know what’s more dangerous:ameteur financial analysts or amateur lawyers. You draw a conclusion from one data point? You are in the tech field,right? Just checking.

  32. Don’t know what’s more dangerous:ameteur financial analysts or amateur lawyers. You draw a conclusion from one data point? You are in the tech field,right? Just checking.

  33. But the games not up yet. Jerry Yang has apparently taken a battering from Yahoo investors. I reckon this will <a href=”http://www.techviews.co.uk/news/yahoo-open-to-further-microsoft-talks/”all kick off again soon.

  34. But the games not up yet. Jerry Yang has apparently taken a battering from Yahoo investors. I reckon this will <a href=”http://www.techviews.co.uk/news/yahoo-open-to-further-microsoft-talks/”all kick off again soon.

  35. In the past 12 years online i can’t recall clicking on a single ad and buying anything.

    Robert, theres a lot more factored in the pricing of msft than how well microsoft is doing in the internet ad business. goog is priced for potential not return on share, as for yhoo the race to the bottom has only just started

  36. In the past 12 years online i can’t recall clicking on a single ad and buying anything.

    Robert, theres a lot more factored in the pricing of msft than how well microsoft is doing in the internet ad business. goog is priced for potential not return on share, as for yhoo the race to the bottom has only just started

  37. I don’t think this is over yet. I think that is what the market said yesterday as well. I don’t know if YHOO is undervalued or not. I do think that MSFT trying to buy it did convince a lot of people that it was undervalued before the buy out offer. Now the ball is in Yahoo’s court to prove it. MSFT is something I think too many people price on emotion rather than reality. I think the same about Google. There is much too much of that driving the market, especially lately. I don’t trust the market to pick winners and losers anymore. It’s all legal gambling these days.

  38. I don’t think this is over yet. I think that is what the market said yesterday as well. I don’t know if YHOO is undervalued or not. I do think that MSFT trying to buy it did convince a lot of people that it was undervalued before the buy out offer. Now the ball is in Yahoo’s court to prove it. MSFT is something I think too many people price on emotion rather than reality. I think the same about Google. There is much too much of that driving the market, especially lately. I don’t trust the market to pick winners and losers anymore. It’s all legal gambling these days.

  39. http://robnorman.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/yahoo-what-happens-next/

    Yahoo! What happens next?
    Microsoft has pulled its bid. Yahoo stock tumbles. And the winner is…………. Well, to start let’s not rule out the transaction happening anyway. The Microsoft bid now looks much better than it did 48 hours ago for most Yahoo shareholders so a return to the table with or without the Yahoo management is a distinct possibility.

    As for Yahoo’s options, there are many but a Google transaction cannot be one of them. The principle applied to determining monopolistic control of a market has to do with the potential to abuse a monopolistic position. It is crystal clear that such opportunity exists which is not to say that Google has any intent to excercise that potential. The more subtle question is at what point such a position can be determined to exist.

    Let’s say for a moment that Chevron and Exxon Mobil decided to combine the distribution and retailing of gasoline in all states beginning with the letter D without merging the companies. Monopoly or not? What if it was all states A through D? Even if the scenario led to a benefit of lower prices at the pump it has the potential for price fixing and price increases with or without a full merger.

    You can see where this is going. Imagine that all the keywords A through D on all of Google and Yahoo were subject to a single bid process the same situation exists. In my view you can no more execute this partial merger than conceive a partial pregnancy. You are or you ain’t.

    Today the market is confused and that needs to stop for the benefit of all the players. The FCC, and or the DOJ, needs to show its hand preemptively. If it is minded to allow a merger then the market and marketers should be given an audience. If it is minded to stop it the market should be informed to remove a wild card from the process that is causing massive swings in shareholder value at a time in the economic cycle when focus rather than distraction are required.

  40. http://robnorman.wordpress.com/2008/05/05/yahoo-what-happens-next/

    Yahoo! What happens next?
    Microsoft has pulled its bid. Yahoo stock tumbles. And the winner is…………. Well, to start let’s not rule out the transaction happening anyway. The Microsoft bid now looks much better than it did 48 hours ago for most Yahoo shareholders so a return to the table with or without the Yahoo management is a distinct possibility.

    As for Yahoo’s options, there are many but a Google transaction cannot be one of them. The principle applied to determining monopolistic control of a market has to do with the potential to abuse a monopolistic position. It is crystal clear that such opportunity exists which is not to say that Google has any intent to excercise that potential. The more subtle question is at what point such a position can be determined to exist.

    Let’s say for a moment that Chevron and Exxon Mobil decided to combine the distribution and retailing of gasoline in all states beginning with the letter D without merging the companies. Monopoly or not? What if it was all states A through D? Even if the scenario led to a benefit of lower prices at the pump it has the potential for price fixing and price increases with or without a full merger.

    You can see where this is going. Imagine that all the keywords A through D on all of Google and Yahoo were subject to a single bid process the same situation exists. In my view you can no more execute this partial merger than conceive a partial pregnancy. You are or you ain’t.

    Today the market is confused and that needs to stop for the benefit of all the players. The FCC, and or the DOJ, needs to show its hand preemptively. If it is minded to allow a merger then the market and marketers should be given an audience. If it is minded to stop it the market should be informed to remove a wild card from the process that is causing massive swings in shareholder value at a time in the economic cycle when focus rather than distraction are required.

  41. Interesting how Scoble makes the call on the deal based on an actual datum point (the stock prices-as good a measure as any), and the detractors counter with…opinion on how wrong he is.

    The fact is, everyone on Saturday predicted Yahoo’s stock would plummet to pre-deal price, and it didn’t. So the stock was a useful datum point on Saturday, until it didn’t show what detractors wanted to see, so now its not?

  42. Interesting how Scoble makes the call on the deal based on an actual datum point (the stock prices-as good a measure as any), and the detractors counter with…opinion on how wrong he is.

    The fact is, everyone on Saturday predicted Yahoo’s stock would plummet to pre-deal price, and it didn’t. So the stock was a useful datum point on Saturday, until it didn’t show what detractors wanted to see, so now its not?

  43. Well, the fact is that there is a winner and that’s no one else but Google!

    Why? Because, their share value will increase. I mean, we all know that the kind of increase we have seen in the past is not going to stay forever but their share values will increase none the less and for now, the interest search is still divided into three pieces. Google, Yahoo and MSN. Sure Google leads wayyy ahead but an MS-YAHOO merger would have meant greater competition and I bet they would have also taken YPN worldwide to combate Google Adsense/Adwords.

    This news has been the headline (business) news around the globe and I am sure because MS pulling out of the deal, a lot of people must be feeling disappointing including Yahoo’s own employees but that’s just a guess, I could be wrong though. The point is, Google is the ultimate winner here. They can safely continue making billions via PPC advertising and their stock holders are going to stay happy for a long time :)

  44. Well, the fact is that there is a winner and that’s no one else but Google!

    Why? Because, their share value will increase. I mean, we all know that the kind of increase we have seen in the past is not going to stay forever but their share values will increase none the less and for now, the interest search is still divided into three pieces. Google, Yahoo and MSN. Sure Google leads wayyy ahead but an MS-YAHOO merger would have meant greater competition and I bet they would have also taken YPN worldwide to combate Google Adsense/Adwords.

    This news has been the headline (business) news around the globe and I am sure because MS pulling out of the deal, a lot of people must be feeling disappointing including Yahoo’s own employees but that’s just a guess, I could be wrong though. The point is, Google is the ultimate winner here. They can safely continue making billions via PPC advertising and their stock holders are going to stay happy for a long time :)

  45. Yahoo! is now arguably in better shape than it was three months ago.
    I am sure, Yahoo! will ultimately be the Winner !

  46. Yahoo! is now arguably in better shape than it was three months ago.
    I am sure, Yahoo! will ultimately be the Winner !