It no longer is about Data Portability or Social Graph Portability, if you will.
I’m hearing these rumors too that John Furrier (my ex-boss) is reporting. That Microsoft will buy Yahoo’s search and then buy Facebook for $15 to $20 billion. Add that to all the news that Microsoft is buying Yahoo’s search and that gets very interesting.
That just changed the whole argument of Facebook vs. Google to one of Microsoft vs. the Web.
Think about this just a second.
Let’s say Microsoft gets Yahoo’s search. That doesn’t look that brilliant. After all, we know Google is gaining share there and taking Yahoo’s best advertisers (and let’s just forget Microsoft’s efforts, which have been an utter failure so far).
But these two moves would change everything and totally explain why Facebook is working overtime to keep Google from importing anything. First, let’s look at what is at stake here:
Loic Le Meur did a little test with me a couple of weeks ago. He listed his Le Web conference on both Facebook and Upcoming.org. Here’s the Facebook listing. Here’s the Upcoming.org one.
The Facebook one can’t be seen if you don’t have a Facebook account. It’s NOT open to the public Web. Google’s spiders CAN NOT REACH IT.
He put both listings up at exactly the same time and did no invites, nothing. Just let people find these listings on their own.
The Facebook one is NOT available to the Web. It has 467 people who’ve accepted it. The Upcoming.org one IS available to Google and the Web. It has 101 people on it.
This is a fight for the Web. We all just crawled inside a box that locks Google out.
Don’t believe me?
Go to Google and do a search for “Le Web 08.”
Do you see a Facebook entry there? Nope. Google is locked out of the Web that soon will be owned by Microsoft. We will never get an open Web back if these two deals happen.
This has created HUGE value for Microsoft and has handed Steve Ballmer an Internet strategy which brings Microsoft from last place to first in less than a week.
Boom!
Now Microsoft/Yahoo search will have access to HUGE SWATHS of Internet info that Google will NOT have access to.
Data and social graph portability is dead on arrival.
Microsoft just bought itself a search strategy that sure looks like a winner to me.
If all this is true there is no way in hell that Facebook will open up now.
It’s Facebook and Microsoft vs. the open public Web.
Can the open public Web fight back? Yes. It’s called FriendFeed. Notice that FriendFeed replaces almost all of Facebook’s killer features with open ones that are open to Google’s search.
So, now, do you see why I’m so interested in FriendFeed? It’s our only hope to compete with Microsoft’s new “buy enough and keep it closed” search strategy.
Don’t think this matters? It sure does. Relevancy on Yahoo search will go through the roof when it has access to Facebook data and Google doesn’t. People will see that Yahoo has people search (something I’ve asked Google for for years) and Google doesn’t. That’ll turn the tide in advertising, and all that.
Brilliant move, if this all comes true.
I’ve SMS’d Mark Zuckerberg and asked him if he’s selling. I doubt he’ll answer. I hope he holds out for more than $20 billion. He just might get it.
UPDATE: Someone on Twitter (Soulhuntre) says that it doesn’t matter as long as HTTP keeps working. That’s just the point. Facebook BLOCKS HTTP if you aren’t logged into its system and it can remove you at a moment’s notice. @irinaslutsky (former employee of mine) was removed last week from Facebook. This is a scary company and if it gets in the hands of Microsoft will create a scary monopoly.
UPDATE2: thanks to XKCD for the cartoon. I love those cartoons.
[...] brewing this post for a couple days, since I first read Robert Scoble’s post theorizing the impacts of a Microsoft purchase of Facebook and Yahoo. Scoble’s post clearly reveals his Ideology towards a universally “Open and [...]
Just posted a response to this post on my blog:
http://dayofideas.com/?p=5
This writer, in particular, has found extreme value in the closed off web that Facebook cultivates. I enjoy being able to interact with the vast network of my social history in a private and none-searchable arena. I enjoy and find value in being able to communicate intimacies, daily life, plans, and stupidities in a digital playground that his neatly tucked out of reach from the tendrils of Google.
Just posted a response to this post on my blog:
http://dayofideas.com/?p=5
This writer, in particular, has found extreme value in the closed off web that Facebook cultivates. I enjoy being able to interact with the vast network of my social history in a private and none-searchable arena. I enjoy and find value in being able to communicate intimacies, daily life, plans, and stupidities in a digital playground that his neatly tucked out of reach from the tendrils of Google.
[...] اشتركت اليوم في فريندفيد، السبب في الواقع هو إصرار روبرت سكوبل الغريب وولاءه لهذه الخدمة واستغلاه كل فرصة لمدحها يقدم سكوبل [...]
Makes sense. There is so much information out there, many people just want a nice cozy walled garden.
and what about Rupert Murdoch and MySpace? Is it closed to Google?
Makes sense. There is so much information out there, many people just want a nice cozy walled garden.
and what about Rupert Murdoch and MySpace? Is it closed to Google?
[...] Robert Scoble has a conspiracy theory – that Microsoft would only open up search of Facebook for Yahoo! and Microsoft search, thus [...]
Google can make a facebook, Google is highly capable
Google can make a facebook, Google is highly capable
[...] and Google. … could make a hefty 5 billions for youself, save Google and save the world from …http://scobleizer.com/2008/05/19/why-microsoft-will-buy-facebook-and-keep-it-closed/GeekList: You Gotta’ Spend Money/VPs to Make Money/VPs …This is one of the iconic "You gotta’ [...]
Microsoft try to play big but web is not a place for Bill. Desktop is their profession and they have to do it.
Microsoft try to play big but web is not a place for Bill. Desktop is their profession and they have to do it.
[...] Prediction of a Microsoft-Facebook union that will be detrimental to users(Robert Scoble) [...]
[...] what people really want out of a site like this is to let go. The web survives on the oxygen of open data. It’s a fundamental component of the web’s success and deeply affected my thinking in [...]
[...] yahoo, como este blog publicou hoje, mas querendo levar, ao mesmo tempo, facebook. segundo scoble, é uma sacada brilhante, inclusive porque facebook é fechado [e não pode ser indexado por máquinas de busca públicas, [...]
Microsoft try to play big but web is not a place for Bill. Desktop is their profession and they have to do it.
Microsoft try to play big but web is not a place for Bill. Desktop is their profession and they have to do it.
because facebook was serious rival for advertising topic.
because facebook was serious rival for advertising topic.
[...] This is a line in the battle for the web. Back in May, Scobleizer wrote about Facebook and Microsoft’s plan for a walled garden to combat the emergence of Google as a juggernaut that makes the Microsoft monopoly look like a [...]
The cartoon is great. That happens all the time. You can’t just let someone be wrong on the internet.
The cartoon is great. That happens all the time. You can’t just let someone be wrong on the internet.
Facebook has the largest collection of photos and videos precisely because it is closed. Most people, in addition to the work of migrating data, won’t post the stuff elsewhere because the don’t WANT the whole world to be able to see it – just their friends, the people they give permission to. For event calendars, I think the market’s open for a new player to steal facebook’s thunder (there’s a lot of room for improvement, and searchability is just one part of the equation).
Facebook has the largest collection of photos and videos precisely because it is closed. Most people, in addition to the work of migrating data, won’t post the stuff elsewhere because the don’t WANT the whole world to be able to see it – just their friends, the people they give permission to. For event calendars, I think the market’s open for a new player to steal facebook’s thunder (there’s a lot of room for improvement, and searchability is just one part of the equation).
[...] chez Robert Scobler que j’ai lu l’info [...]
[...] like Scoble still think Microsoft is going to drop something like $20 billion on Facebook. A site with maybe $0.2 billion in revenue? Yeah, okay. Aside from what I like to call [...]
thank you…
thank you…
So instead of the world having my data on facebook, MS owns it. I'm not really liking either of them having it since they both with exploit, much the way facebook does already. The thing to think about is that if MS owns the data instead of someone writing a couple scripts to data mine the web for any of my personal info, they are going to have to pay MS for it. One thing MS is very good at is charging and arm and leg for anything they own making the barrier to getting mine and everyone else's data that much harder. The people who need to see the data will, those who want access just need to ask.
because facebook was serious rival for advertising topic? I think so.
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Eventually people get tired of the walled garden and get over it.
Eventually people get tired of the walled garden and get over it.