Why Microsoft will buy Facebook and keep it closed

May 19, 2008 By

It no longer is about Data Portability or Social Graph Portability, if you will.

I’m hearing these rumors too that John Furrier (my ex-boss) is reporting. That Microsoft will buy Yahoo’s search and then buy Facebook for $15 to $20 billion. Add that to all the news that Microsoft is buying Yahoo’s search and that gets very interesting.

That just changed the whole argument of Facebook vs. Google to one of Microsoft vs. the Web.

Think about this just a second.

Let’s say Microsoft gets Yahoo’s search. That doesn’t look that brilliant. After all, we know Google is gaining share there and taking Yahoo’s best advertisers (and let’s just forget Microsoft’s efforts, which have been an utter failure so far).

But these two moves would change everything and totally explain why Facebook is working overtime to keep Google from importing anything. First, let’s look at what is at stake here:

Loic Le Meur did a little test with me a couple of weeks ago. He listed his Le Web conference on both Facebook and Upcoming.org. Here’s the Facebook listing. Here’s the Upcoming.org one.

The Facebook one can’t be seen if you don’t have a Facebook account. It’s NOT open to the public Web. Google’s spiders CAN NOT REACH IT.

He put both listings up at exactly the same time and did no invites, nothing. Just let people find these listings on their own.

The Facebook one is NOT available to the Web. It has 467 people who’ve accepted it. The Upcoming.org one IS available to Google and the Web. It has 101 people on it.

This is a fight for the Web. We all just crawled inside a box that locks Google out.

Don’t believe me?

Go to Google and do a search for “Le Web 08.”

Do you see a Facebook entry there? Nope. Google is locked out of the Web that soon will be owned by Microsoft. We will never get an open Web back if these two deals happen.

This has created HUGE value for Microsoft and has handed Steve Ballmer an Internet strategy which brings Microsoft from last place to first in less than a week.

Boom!

Now Microsoft/Yahoo search will have access to HUGE SWATHS of Internet info that Google will NOT have access to.

Data and social graph portability is dead on arrival.

Microsoft just bought itself a search strategy that sure looks like a winner to me.

If all this is true there is no way in hell that Facebook will open up now.

It’s Facebook and Microsoft vs. the open public Web.

Can the open public Web fight back? Yes. It’s called FriendFeed. Notice that FriendFeed replaces almost all of Facebook’s killer features with open ones that are open to Google’s search.

So, now, do you see why I’m so interested in FriendFeed? It’s our only hope to compete with Microsoft’s new “buy enough and keep it closed” search strategy.

Don’t think this matters? It sure does. Relevancy on Yahoo search will go through the roof when it has access to Facebook data and Google doesn’t. People will see that Yahoo has people search (something I’ve asked Google for for years) and Google doesn’t. That’ll turn the tide in advertising, and all that.

Brilliant move, if this all comes true.

I’ve SMS’d Mark Zuckerberg and asked him if he’s selling. I doubt he’ll answer. I hope he holds out for more than $20 billion. He just might get it.

UPDATE: Someone on Twitter (Soulhuntre) says that it doesn’t matter as long as HTTP keeps working. That’s just the point. Facebook BLOCKS HTTP if you aren’t logged into its system and it can remove you at a moment’s notice. @irinaslutsky (former employee of mine) was removed last week from Facebook. This is a scary company and if it gets in the hands of Microsoft will create a scary monopoly.

UPDATE2: thanks to XKCD for the cartoon. I love those cartoons.

Filed Under: technology industry Tagged With: Advertising, Facebook, Microsoft, Search, social graph, Social Network, Yahoo

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Joe Pinegar

For anyone who thinks the deal won’t happen because Facebook is overvalued, think…AOL+Time Warner.

This might be a pain in the short run, but long term look at how well AOL is doing these days. My experience tells me that people will abandon a service that becomes too much of a pain in the ass to use. If they abandon the content there? Well, calendars have limited historical value. Photos had to be digital to get there in the first place. Same for videos.

Frankly, the only value I see there is if M$ offered search for Web + Facebook where others were just ordinary web.

Also, if you think that Microsoft is just a SOFTWARE company, do some reading. They’re charging hard into the advertising market. It remains to be seen if they stumble or break through.
Joe Pinegar

For anyone who thinks the deal won’t happen because Facebook is overvalued, think…AOL+Time Warner.

This might be a pain in the short run, but long term look at how well AOL is doing these days. My experience tells me that people will abandon a service that becomes too much of a pain in the ass to use. If they abandon the content there? Well, calendars have limited historical value. Photos had to be digital to get there in the first place. Same for videos.

Frankly, the only value I see there is if M$ offered search for Web + Facebook where others were just ordinary web.

Also, if you think that Microsoft is just a SOFTWARE company, do some reading. They’re charging hard into the advertising market. It remains to be seen if they stumble or break through.
opl

MSFT being the new AOL or Compuserve as Andrew, #2 stated above?
That would be just GREAT, whether they disappear completely or from the open(ed) web. At least, I won’t have any effort to do to avoid them
opl

MSFT being the new AOL or Compuserve as Andrew, #2 stated above?
That would be just GREAT, whether they disappear completely or from the open(ed) web. At least, I won’t have any effort to do to avoid them
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http://www.alphasoftware.com/ Christian Knott

Oh great, Microsoft buys a behemoth partially funded by the CIA and with lots of ex-CIA people as exec’s.

I can hear the conspiracy theory geeks gearing up already …
http://www.alphasoftware.com Christian Knott

Oh great, Microsoft buys a behemoth partially funded by the CIA and with lots of ex-CIA people as exec’s.

I can hear the conspiracy theory geeks gearing up already …
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http://mavrev.com/ Matt

If this all comes together what you’re saying really does make sense. This is one of the only things that to me makes any sense why Microsoft would be interested in either company, other than advertising. Great view.
http://mavrev.com Matt

If this all comes together what you’re saying really does make sense. This is one of the only things that to me makes any sense why Microsoft would be interested in either company, other than advertising. Great view.
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http://trancemist.net/blog/ TranceMist

LMAO! I love your cartoon (so does my wife)!
http://trancemist.net/blog/ TranceMist

LMAO! I love your cartoon (so does my wife)!
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Monkey

Yeah, I’m not buying it. What was the big social network 18 months ago? Not Facebook. How about 18 months before that? Not MySpace. Facebook has no permanence, just like MySpace stopped being the cool kid before that, Friendster and Live Journal before that, and so on and so on.

Facebook will stop being the cool kid on the block in another year, and you’ll be pimping the latest/greatest new thing right here on this blog. Then everyone will flock to whatever it is and leave Facebook behind.
Monkey

Yeah, I’m not buying it. What was the big social network 18 months ago? Not Facebook. How about 18 months before that? Not MySpace. Facebook has no permanence, just like MySpace stopped being the cool kid before that, Friendster and Live Journal before that, and so on and so on.

Facebook will stop being the cool kid on the block in another year, and you’ll be pimping the latest/greatest new thing right here on this blog. Then everyone will flock to whatever it is and leave Facebook behind.
camp185

I’m a little late finding this article, but I loved it. A classic example of Google getting manipulated by an outside source just like their PR system. If this is Microsoft’s ultimate goal though, I think they will be disappointed with their investment in the long run. It would simply be a small territorial win for an ever expanding playing field.
camp185

I’m a little late finding this article, but I loved it. A classic example of Google getting manipulated by an outside source just like their PR system. If this is Microsoft’s ultimate goal though, I think they will be disappointed with their investment in the long run. It would simply be a small territorial win for an ever expanding playing field.
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http://www.smibs.com/ Peter Urban

On the short term business side this makes total sense for MS. But what next? MS has tried to grab the web and make it theirs so many times and has always failed. I would even go so far to say that Microsoft’s current desperate situation is a result of that history.

The web and it’s users gravitate towards openness and no-one really likes the web to be dominated by one force. We thought it was over when MS killed Netscape (remember browserwars). Then we thought it was over again wen push technologies came along where a few channels would dominate the majority of all content distribution. We even thought there was no space for another search engine before Google surfaced (remember the search ‘giant’ Altavista) …

Now is a post MS acquisition Facebook going to turn into the next altavista? I don’t know but what I do know is that there are lot’s of little Zuckerbergs out there waiting to do to FB what Google did to Altavista and MS would have to be darn clever (and not evil) to prevent that from happening.

So I think you got that one wrong, the end of the open web is not in sight for a ling time.

Peter
do you follow me @ http://twitter.com/peterurban
http://www.smibs.com Peter Urban

On the short term business side this makes total sense for MS. But what next? MS has tried to grab the web and make it theirs so many times and has always failed. I would even go so far to say that Microsoft’s current desperate situation is a result of that history.

The web and it’s users gravitate towards openness and no-one really likes the web to be dominated by one force. We thought it was over when MS killed Netscape (remember browserwars). Then we thought it was over again wen push technologies came along where a few channels would dominate the majority of all content distribution. We even thought there was no space for another search engine before Google surfaced (remember the search ‘giant’ Altavista) …

Now is a post MS acquisition Facebook going to turn into the next altavista? I don’t know but what I do know is that there are lot’s of little Zuckerbergs out there waiting to do to FB what Google did to Altavista and MS would have to be darn clever (and not evil) to prevent that from happening.

So I think you got that one wrong, the end of the open web is not in sight for a ling time.

Peter
do you follow me @ http://twitter.com/peterurban
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Scott

Dude, your high and eating too many cheeseburgers….
Scott

Dude, your high and eating too many cheeseburgers….
slotz

Facebook? Who cares? GET A REAL LIFE.
slotz

Facebook? Who cares? GET A REAL LIFE.
http://www.pagequest.co.uk/Article/A-brief-session-on-Layered-Hairstyles--Medium-hairstyles--Emo-hairstyles--Sedu-Hairstyle/9775 Blatant link building

I have never understood the concept of Facebook and don’t even have an account.

Oooohhh! Somebody wrote on my wall?
http://www.pagequest.co.uk/Article/A-brief-session-on-Layered-Hairstyles--Medium-hairstyles--Emo-hairstyles--Sedu-Hairstyle/9775 Blatant link building

I have never understood the concept of Facebook and don’t even have an account.

Oooohhh! Somebody wrote on my wall?
http://www.docstree.com/ Sheetal Jain

Robert,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I would respectfully disagree with your analysis.

1) Closeness and Propertiory protocol does not work on the Web. Microsoft has burnt enough and now seems to understand that well. That’s one of the reasons they have recently made all their proprietory protocols (such as FPRPC and MSDav ) public.

2) Facebook is not as proven as wikipedia. I won’t switch my search engine to MSN or Yahoo just because they shows me the profiles from facebook. People will create there profile somewhere else if they don’t show up.

Also, I believe all SN sites will give some kind of option to the user if they want their profile to be searchble by BOTS and search engine. If they don’t, its a big privacy issue. And if they do, searching SN is no different than a blog search. Its another mean to the end.

Thanks and keep posting and twittering
Sheetal
http://www.docstree.com
http://www.docstree.com Sheetal Jain

Robert,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I would respectfully disagree with your analysis.

1) Closeness and Propertiory protocol does not work on the Web. Microsoft has burnt enough and now seems to understand that well. That’s one of the reasons they have recently made all their proprietory protocols (such as FPRPC and MSDav ) public.

2) Facebook is not as proven as wikipedia. I won’t switch my search engine to MSN or Yahoo just because they shows me the profiles from facebook. People will create there profile somewhere else if they don’t show up.

Also, I believe all SN sites will give some kind of option to the user if they want their profile to be searchble by BOTS and search engine. If they don’t, its a big privacy issue. And if they do, searching SN is no different than a blog search. Its another mean to the end.

Thanks and keep posting and twittering
Sheetal
http://www.docstree.com
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http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com/ steveballmer

You are getting a little toooo close!
http://fakesteveballmer.blogspot.com steveballmer

You are getting a little toooo close!
http://talesfromthe.net/jon jon

A quick comment about Irina being removed without notice:

Daniel Solove’s Facebook Banishment and Due Process on Concurring Opinions looks at some of the legal issues. How to respond when Facebook censors your political speech on Tales from the Net has a bunch of other examples, including me and MiniMSFT … and most recently, the ACLU (!).

jon
http://www.talesfromthe.net/jon jon

A quick comment about Irina being removed without notice:

Daniel Solove’s Facebook Banishment and Due Process on Concurring Opinions looks at some of the legal issues. How to respond when Facebook censors your political speech on Tales from the Net has a bunch of other examples, including me and MiniMSFT … and most recently, the ACLU (!).

jon
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Jerino

Look, pal. Data on the internet = value. The more data you gather, the more chances of making money off it. Google goes to Facebook basically saying, “Look sucker, you don’t know how to make money of your data so let our search engine handle it to produce more search results and therefore more ads revenue for US, how about that?” Facebook replies, “Fine, go spit.” It’s Facebook own chance to make money. They don’t want Google to profit off it. No one does. That’s all there’s to it. Is it too hard to understand?
Jerino

Look, pal. Data on the internet = value. The more data you gather, the more chances of making money off it. Google goes to Facebook basically saying, “Look sucker, you don’t know how to make money of your data so let our search engine handle it to produce more search results and therefore more ads revenue for US, how about that?” Facebook replies, “Fine, go spit.” It’s Facebook own chance to make money. They don’t want Google to profit off it. No one does. That’s all there’s to it. Is it too hard to understand?
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http://jamiethomson.spaces.live.com/ Jamiet

Another thing to ponder Robert (apologies if someone has mentioned this above – I’m not going through 271 comments).

At some point Microsoft will be able to intersperse results from a user’s Live Mesh in with regular web search results. You can imagine a checkbox at http://search.live.com saying “search my Mesh”. I think that would be much more distruptive than searching Facebook.

-Jamie
http://jamiethomson.spaces.live.com Jamiet

Another thing to ponder Robert (apologies if someone has mentioned this above – I’m not going through 271 comments).

At some point Microsoft will be able to intersperse results from a user’s Live Mesh in with regular web search results. You can imagine a checkbox at http://search.live.com saying “search my Mesh”. I think that would be much more distruptive than searching Facebook.

-Jamie

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