Everyone is still talking cell phones. Just visit TechMeme today and you’ll see lots of news from HTC, I’ve already seen some claims that it has a “Palm killer.” Hint: it’s not about the device, it’s about the software you put onto it. Haven’t we learned that yet? Remember when I told you two years ago that the iPhone is a better device than what Nokia had? Remember how many people argued with me? They were wrong. Just like they are wrong to say that Palm doesn’t have a shot here. Heck, when I saw Walt Mossberg last week, the Wall Street Journal’s top tech writer, he said Palm has a shot.
But, sorry, Nokia, Palm caught the last train out of town. They made it to the station 30 seconds before the doors closed.
You didn’t make it and there are no more trains for the USA market.
Why do I say that?
Because in the USA there are only these major carriers:
AT&T.
Verizon.
Sprint.
T-Mobile.
AT&T? Gone. Apple has them sewn up. Verizon? RIM has them sewn up. I met with RIM’s director of marketing at CES and he was smiling. That should give you a hint. Sprint? Palm has them in the Palm of their hands now. T-Mobile? Google’s Android is their key smart phone.
So, what does this mean? All the US carriers now have their SmartPhone choices. All the trains have left the station.
Who is out in this game? Microsoft and Nokia.
So, what do Microsoft and Nokia have to do to get back in the game?
Do something so unbelieveable that it causes everyone in the world to want one.
Hint: I have friends who’ve seen the new Microsoft OS. I’ve seen the new Nokia OS, just a month ago. They don’t have it. The game is afoot and Nokia and Microsoft are left at the station.
Am I wrong? Argue with me.
Please note that I’m only talking about the US market. Nokia and Microsoft will do just fine in other markets because their offerings are better for those markets (lower cost, or have stylus’s which are demanded in China, for instance, or have all-you-can-eat music subscription services which are demanded by Europeans). But in USA? Sorry Nokia and Microsoft, it’s going to be a tough year.
Oh, and Laptop Magazine has some good videos of the Palm Pre in action. I can’t wait to get one of these devices and compare it to my Nokias and my iPhone.
I’d have to strongly disagree with you Robert. http://tinyurl.com/84g2km
Robert, these two short stories kill your article, and your opinion, stone dead, at least as regards Nokia:
http://www.intomobile.com/2008/12/07/at-i-wanna-fly.html
http://www.mediabistro.com/mobiledevicestoday/on/its_far_from_game_over_for_microsoft_and_nokia_in_the_us_105624.asp
‘nuf said.
Robert, these two short stories kill your article, and your opinion, stone dead, at least as regards Nokia:
http://www.intomobile.com/2008/12/07/at-i-wanna-fly.html
http://www.mediabistro.com/mobiledevicestoday/on/its_far_from_game_over_for_microsoft_and_nokia_in_the_us_105624.asp
‘nuf said.
Sorry, 2nd link should have been this one (other one is from posted immediately above):
http://www.intomobile.com/2009/01/11/nokia-e71-coming-to-at-users-manual-prooves-it-again.html
Sorry, 2nd link should have been this one (other one is from posted immediately above):
http://www.intomobile.com/2009/01/11/nokia-e71-coming-to-at-users-manual-prooves-it-again.html
Hi Mr. Scoble,
I’d like to hear from you about Motorola. Any chances for they compete in this smartphone market? or they are gone !
Hi Mr. Scoble,
I’d like to hear from you about Motorola. Any chances for they compete in this smartphone market? or they are gone !
…out just like Palm was for the last X years, dragging Palm OS 5 around?
No one is ever entirely out, especially not MS or Nokia. I’d certainly take you more seriously if you weren’t making these ridiculous all-or-nothing statements and just gushing over the N97 not two months ago. Didn’t sound like it “wasn’t enough” then. In fact, it sounded (and still sounds) very sweet and functional. Maybe that doesn’t kick in the kind of gadget lust flicking cards around can, but let me know when either Apple or Palm release a high-quality 5MP with flash camera on their phone. That’s what I use the most on mine.
…out just like Palm was for the last X years, dragging Palm OS 5 around?
No one is ever entirely out, especially not MS or Nokia. I’d certainly take you more seriously if you weren’t making these ridiculous all-or-nothing statements and just gushing over the N97 not two months ago. Didn’t sound like it “wasn’t enough” then. In fact, it sounded (and still sounds) very sweet and functional. Maybe that doesn’t kick in the kind of gadget lust flicking cards around can, but let me know when either Apple or Palm release a high-quality 5MP with flash camera on their phone. That’s what I use the most on mine.
Dear retard
Who wrote the rule that says each operator can only sell one kind of Smartphone? All of the networks you mention have been selling varieties of smartphones from different vendors without exclusivity for years.
iPhone is the only exclusive, and only for another year. G1 is only exclusive to T-Mobile, because no one else wants it.
By the way, AT&T sells Nokia smartphones such as 6650, N73, and E62, albeit without much success.
Dear retard
Who wrote the rule that says each operator can only sell one kind of Smartphone? All of the networks you mention have been selling varieties of smartphones from different vendors without exclusivity for years.
iPhone is the only exclusive, and only for another year. G1 is only exclusive to T-Mobile, because no one else wants it.
By the way, AT&T sells Nokia smartphones such as 6650, N73, and E62, albeit without much success.
you have to understand that from operator point of view locking themselves into a smartphone operating system with only one manufacturer that fully controls that operating system is dead end road. they might just as well give all their stock outright to the manufacturer.
therefore, if a carrier chooses and exclusive smartphone platform it can only be android or symbian. iphone / palm exclusivity is just not an option.
you have to understand that from operator point of view locking themselves into a smartphone operating system with only one manufacturer that fully controls that operating system is dead end road. they might just as well give all their stock outright to the manufacturer.
therefore, if a carrier chooses and exclusive smartphone platform it can only be android or symbian. iphone / palm exclusivity is just not an option.
As I said in my recent podcast with Matt Bennett, Nokia should just by Palm and us WebOS for the N97, or use Android: http://tnkgrl.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/podcast-talking-with-matt-4/
As I said in my recent podcast with Matt Bennett, Nokia should just by Palm and us WebOS for the N97, or use Android: http://tnkgrl.wordpress.com/2009/01/11/podcast-talking-with-matt-4/
“or have all-you-can-eat music subscription services which are demanded by Europeans”
I love hearing about how I’m “demanding” things I’ve never actually asked for and don’t really want. when do I get the chance to demand things that *I* actually want in my phones? More to the point, where’s my pony? I’m sure I read a report that everyone in Europe wants a pony!
“or have all-you-can-eat music subscription services which are demanded by Europeans”
I love hearing about how I’m “demanding” things I’ve never actually asked for and don’t really want. when do I get the chance to demand things that *I* actually want in my phones? More to the point, where’s my pony? I’m sure I read a report that everyone in Europe wants a pony!
Rob Moir has a good point there: apart from anything else, it’s Americans not Europeans who demand flat-rate services wherever possible! A flat rate subscription for music might be nice, perhaps – like I have now from Safari for books (remind me which country that service is from again?) – but hey, I don’t even have a flat-rate broadband connection at home any more, let alone anything else flat-rate!
Rob Moir has a good point there: apart from anything else, it’s Americans not Europeans who demand flat-rate services wherever possible! A flat rate subscription for music might be nice, perhaps – like I have now from Safari for books (remind me which country that service is from again?) – but hey, I don’t even have a flat-rate broadband connection at home any more, let alone anything else flat-rate!
When will the US transcend the two year locked in service agreement?
Europe has gotten to the point where they often give away a popular models that owners use to buy minutes on.
I’d pay full price for the phone – gladly – if it meant a more competitive wireless market and an end to the two year service agreement.
When will the US transcend the two year locked in service agreement?
Europe has gotten to the point where they often give away a popular models that owners use to buy minutes on.
I’d pay full price for the phone – gladly – if it meant a more competitive wireless market and an end to the two year service agreement.
[...] Bray: Mobile Gold. Responding in part to Scoble’s post yesterday that claims that now that Palm has announced their new iPhone-look-and-feel-clone Pre, MS and Nokia [...]
[...] up losing the North American market? AllAboutSymbian had a great post today that references a Robert Scoble rant on Nokia (and Microsoft) in the US smartphone market. To make a long story short, Robert [...]
[...] I’m sure the problem is not as simple as he makes out, Robert Scoble’s reasoning on why Palm can now rule the American smartphone market and why both Microsoft and Nokia are out the game, makes for a great rule of thumb. In short, there [...]
[...] websites/blogs are also noticing this problem with Windows Mobile and Nokia. Scobleizer even calls out the fact Nokia made it to the party too late. “But, sorry, Nokia, Palm caught [...]
My experience tells me that M$ is made for geeks who argue they have a “wider selection of software”. In fact, significant part of that software is crap.
What concerns Nokia, well… Despite of all abilities, S60 devices are very seldom purchased as smartphones, far more often as “just cool phones”. Nokia’s huge market share is almost 95% made of people who use like 5-20% of their phones’ functions.
My experience tells me that M$ is made for geeks who argue they have a “wider selection of software”. In fact, significant part of that software is crap.
What concerns Nokia, well… Despite of all abilities, S60 devices are very seldom purchased as smartphones, far more often as “just cool phones”. Nokia’s huge market share is almost 95% made of people who use like 5-20% of their phones’ functions.
[...] just as promising, with an intuitive UI and clever integration with popular online services… Robert Scoble is right: watch out Nokia, this may just be Palm’s comeback, and may just be Sprint’s [...]
[...] I’m certain the trouble is not as easy as he makes out, Robert Scoble’s reasoning on why Palm can now rule the American smartphone market and why both Microsoft and Nokia are out the game, makes for a great rule of thumb. In short, there [...]
True, I have to agree Nokia and Microsoft are WAAAY too behind. Look at what the Palm can do, it can even run a WordPress Blog now, see here:
http://palmpre-hacks.com/palm-pre-hacks/how-to-…
AND it does WiFi Tethering:
http://palmpre-hacks.com/palm-pre-hacks/how-to-…
There's no way Nokia and Microsoft can compete because Palm is based on open-source and iPhones provide hackable resources.
True, I have to agree Nokia and Microsoft are WAAAY too behind. Look at what the Palm can do, it can even run a WordPress Blog now, see here:
http://palmpre-hacks.com/palm-pre-hacks/how-to-…
AND it does WiFi Tethering:
http://palmpre-hacks.com/palm-pre-hacks/how-to-…
There's no way Nokia and Microsoft can compete because Palm is based on open-source and iPhones provide hackable resources.