Oh, Joe, the world doesn’t need a Tablet? Really?

Reading that article whilst propped up against cushions on my bed would have been so much nicer on a tablet! My laptop is warming up my legs uncomfortably and keeps slipping. How fantastic would it be to be able to hold a Mac in my hands and browse more easily than it is to read a magazine.

I just wonder what typing would be like on a tablet when it is not placed on a flat surface though. Let's hope we find out soon!

The iPod was my idea!

http://munrostewart.wordpress.com/2010/01/03/7-...

7 reasons why people will a tablet computer

This is a response to an article by Joe Wilcox from BetaNews titled The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other. It's an interesting article where he basically states that tablet computers can't become as popular as PCs, laptops, mp3 players, and smartphones, because it is a niche product and is too much of a middle product between laptops and smartphones. He has some interesting points. Tablets have definitely had trouble becoming mainstream devices and part of that problem has been overlapping market segments and the fact people may not buy four separate computers including a desktop, laptop, tablet, and phone.

I disagree with his article though. The main reason that I believe tablets will succeed and become popular is because I think they will replace laptops for regular users. It's that simple. Eventually, a typical home user will have a desktop all in one computer, a tablet portable computer, and a mobile smartphone. They may have only one or two of them. So the addressable market is anyone who currently owns a laptop or netbook. Below are some points answering some of the questions he poses. These advantages that a tablet has over a laptop and other reasons are why I think Apple's tablet and other tablets will replace laptops and netbooks.

One good point is that tablet computers won't have a keyboard

Not having a regular keyboard is the big issue and a really good point. It was the same argument with the iPhone and makes an even better argument for tablets trying to replace laptops. But while touchscreen typing isn't as quick as a physical keyboard I think it will be good enough for a lot of people to provide the other benefits that a tablet computer gives you over a laptop. Also it will be better than an iPhone, allowing for four, six, or eight finger typing. That was a weird sentence I know. Anyway, there will eventually be small wireless keyboards that you can take on longer trips that work with tablets for whenever you can get to a desk and stand your tablet up. Or you can sync and do your longer typing on your desktop. I will admit that I think that touchscreen tablets that also have a keyboard like a traditional laptop will be popular for quite awhile, but I do think the great form factor of a tablet will be extremely popular as well and will win over every day users who don't need to type long articles. Just as now the iPhones and iPod Touch are quite popular but so are Blackberry devices and the Palm Pre with a hardware keyboard.


1. People will use an Apple tablet to do everything that they currently do on a laptop, but it will provide a better experience for doing those things.

It's not that new technology allows you to do new tasks usually, but it provides a better experience, is easier to use, provides a quicker way to carry out those tasks, and is more portable allowing us to use it in different places. A typewriter or paper and pen can help you write documents just like Microsoft Word can on a computer. A record player can play music just like an mp3 player can. But new and continually improving technology makes a better experience for completing all the tasks we do in life. Tablet computers will provide a better overall experience than laptop computers for many tasks, eventually replacing them or at least merging most of its technology with them. And it will certainly provide a better experience for many tasks than smartphones do, even if it is less portable.

2. A tablet has a bigger screen than an iPhone and also a larger keyboard.

Screen size is a big determining factor in what the experience is like when doing things on a gadget or device. Again, a tablet's larger screen won't necessary allow you to do new tasks that an iPhone doesn't do, but it will make the experience better. A tablet will make reading, writing and watching videos much more enjoyable and simpler to do on a tablet compared to an iPhone. Many other tasks will be better as well including looking at pictures, browsing the web, email and communication, games, and shopping. Basically anything you use a computer for can be improved in some way with a larger screen. You can't underestimate how much screen size can improve an experience. The tablet will also have a larger keyboard and some other features that are better than the iPhone, such as possibly a webcam and a good video chatting experience. But the screen size alone gives it a completely different and better experience for many tasks than a smartphone.

3. A tablet computer is more portable than a laptop.

Portability and size of computers are also big factors in determining your experience with a computer and when, where, and how often you will use them. Laptops, PDAs, and most recently netbooks and smartphones have allowed people to use technology while being more portable. A tablet certainly isn't as portable as a smartphone that you put in your pocket but it doesn't need to be. It's more portable than a laptop and easier to quickly take and use somewhere, whether that is to another room in the house, out for the day, or on a vacation. It's not a huge portability improvement like say a Palm PDA over a desktop computer. But it's still a substantial improvement, such as the Palm PDA was over the Newton's size, or current netbooks are over a laptop with a 15 inch screen. Not having to open the computer makes a tablet much more portable and easier to use on the go than a laptop. Remember those old Handheld PCs from HP and others that ran Windows CE and opened up like a tiny little laptop, before Pocket PCs were made. The Palm stylus devices and later Pocket PCs from Microsoft were so much better for quickly using. But tablets will also be lighter and skinnier than most current laptops and netbooks while still providing a good processor to perform tasks.

4. A tablet computer has proven multitouch for simplicity and current laptops don't.

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I couldn't finish reading this article because, frankly, anybody who cites MG Siegler cannot be taken seriously.

A few things:
1. I believe the first tablet PC was introduced to the market before 2001 so technically they did exist ten years ago. I know they were present in the early 2000s.

2. You're citing tablets that are used in a business environment -- consumer tablets haven't really had a market yet. That's because the functionality that would support consumer use of a tablet (e-reading, TV, etc.) hasn't really been capable on the internet platform until 2005. User adoption takes time to gel from here.

3. There is absolutely nothing new or novel about entertainment business talking with various internet companies. Went on a ton during 1.0 and present.

Joe's wrong regardless.

Funny how you never really ARGUE with Joe. Not a single counter-argument. Just crap crap crap. And more of your crap. Who's gonna pay for ANOTHER wireless contract?! Only morons.

The Apple Tablet would most likely not a) be a Windows tablet like those before and b) would have the aesthetics and form unlike those before it and c) it would give something to the world to be copied and imitated so we can eventually get 'there' from here.

Bit late to the game here eh? This is old news.

More screens and screen everywhere sounds nice, but unless they are at a throwaway cost, I wouldn't want my $500 tablet get scratched easily (especially with kids around). Netbooks have the advantage that they can be just closed to protect the screen. I wonder if there would be an elegant and functional solution for the lack of protection for the tablets. May be a magical windup curtain that is strong outside and soft inside?

Robert, I was working for a company that released Tablet PC software back at the launch of the MSFT Tablet launch. What I learned after three years of bashing my head against the market was that MSFT Tablet was all about replacing paper and pen. Unfortunately, most people who interact with computers felt hand to screen was an inefficient input medium. Typing (or speaking) was so much faster.

For Apple to succeed, they must position as a replacement for what was "printed on paper." Reading must be the target use with annotation and search as supporting pillars. Replacing newsprint and magazines, changing textbooks, multi-media web page consumption: these are ripe for innovation.

A secondary will be input. Like the iPhone, you can "input" but you are more efficient with large text via a keyboard.

I can see the headline now : "Apple's Tablet gets slated" ;)

” I think there is a world market for maybe five computers“

:-)

I think you misunderstood John. Niche market is about those products he won't buy. At least I don't think he is going to open a restaurant or gas station soon.

Forget about the Apple Tv. How about the Apple HiFi??

Steve will bet on a product that will be a surefire sucess. More screens rather than fewer is the way forward.

The tablet is that surefire sucess. Apple will be releaseing one (they'd be idiots to ignore the opportunity). The question is when. And for how much.

Nice post Robert. And thanks for not resting your argument on the endless stream of rumors breathlessly pandered about the twitters.

My original opinion of the tablet was also skeptical. I have a MacBook and an iPhone so why would I want another screen? I travel a lot and realized that the weight I would often carry around in books was greater than the weight of my laptop and iphone. Having a third screen would actually reduce my load.

Even if Joe's assertion is correct that there is nothing a tablet can do that an iPhone can't, it doesn't mean that it can do it as well. Strictly speaking, I can make calls on my laptop via Skype and do anything on it that I can do on my iPhone. The form of the iPhone makes it better for certain functions.

Likewise I view a tablet as a browsing/reading device. An iPhone is too small to read and browse. A laptop is too cumbersome. I think a tablet would offer opportunities for publishing content which haven't existed yet online. I'm excited.

In regards to the e-reader aspect of a iSlate or iTablet, I already use Amazon's Kindle for iPhone and it's wonderful. A 10" version for use as an e-reader with iPhone capability for apps alone would be worth the price.

Robert, you are so right when we are talking about vertical markets and i developed and built tablets, exactly like the once y0u mentioned in your post but now we are talking about consumers! This is a totally different story and the tablet formfactor is already around for ages... it never made it..

but Apple is smart enough to know what a tablet can do and what not. It's a content consuming device and not a content creating platform. that's why it won't compete against traditional systems, laptops or netbooks.

If one company can help the tablet idea to have its' breakthrough, than it is Apple, even though i am still a little bit concerned.... Anyways, i will get one! ;)

Sascha, I think your sentence "It's a content consuming device and not a content creating platform. that's why it won't compete against traditional systems, laptops or netbooks" pretty much summed up the point Robert was making. The examples he gave were based on "displaying content" for the distribution of information or interaction of it. I think we'll definitely be seeing more and more tablets in places that are more obvious and yet, might be second choice like, hospitals and schools. As a former nurse, it would have been great to chart on a tablet that was attached next to the patients bedside. We had laptops to chart with but had to roll them around on COWs (computers on wheels) tables. Patients, families and visitors could be handed out tablets for information or filling out of surveys. Children's hospitals could use them for bed ridden children to interact with others .. like in a MMORPG platform. Tablets could be used for various training scenarios or even yet, exam taking .. so many uses really. Apple fans and a few gadget loving people would buy an Apple tablet surely. We'll all just have to wait and see until the end of January ...

Here is my prediction.

Whether Apple releases a Tablet PC , what the form factor is etc etc is not the real question.
After all a Tablet PC is just a metaphor for a PC that has minimum local storage and software requirements as compared to the traditional desktop or laptop PC.

Personal computing is moving into an era where the devices will be free and software and data services will be provided as utilities. All you really need now is a device with a display, an internet connection and a browser based OS to access it all.

We saw the beginnings of this shift with the Netbooks of 2009 but the trend will continue further in 2010 with Google releasing Chrome OS and most likely giving away Tablet PC's for free (the same free as your mobile phone hardware is free) plans that allow them to subsidize the cost of these stripped down devices through ad sense advertising.

Apple is working hard to compete in this space and the Tablet PC they release this year may be innovative in some sense. The iTunes online offering may or may not be part of it, however, until they release a stripped down consumer browser based OS and a suite of utility software and data storage services of the likes of Google Docs, Picasa, You Tube, Gmail etc etc they will still be operating in the premium price bracket and catering mostly to computer literate professionals.

I for one am looking forward to my free Google Tablet PC, that allows me to do work, be entertained and share my content with my social network on a larger screen than my mobile phone, without the underlying OS bulk that is mostly used by software developers and other computer professionals.

The introduction of these 'free' tablet PCs will grow the web ecosystem where it matters by enticing a whole new demographic to the daily use of the consumer web. This year will mark the real beginning of the 'PC' as a common household device, as common as the refrigerator or the washing machine.

Apple will be there with it's premium fetish Tablet PC offering, but by know means will they be leading the charge. I imagine they will have trouble keeping up.

Really nice article. Some cool ideas of tablet use cases. Well written. Thanks.

What Apple makes, the people get. And they tend to like it a lot. If ever there was a company in touch with the techno-cool Zeitgeist it's Mr. Jobs and his Apple-tistas.

Each Apple I-iterated product hits the market with varying degrees of stickiness, is moulded and repositioned with each new iteration. More features and a better price? What's not to like? And not too shabby from a consumer standpoint.

I didn't think a tablet was such a big deal but then I'm not necessarily looking to expand my technology footprint. Call me stodgy or old fashioned, but I'm content with my laptop/iPhone combo. I've got computing power and portability which isn't too shabby from a geek standpoint. But a recent conversation caused me ponder.

E-reader. I don't want a pseudo-book. I want the real thing. Pages. Binding. Smell. Tactile. I like the idea of a stiff bookmark and jamming it into the edge crease. Very satisfying. I digress. Amazon and Sony have their e-devices. What if Apple came out, like Apple does and does it better plus makes lots of very cool content available? Advantage Apple. They win the design war hands-down plus have some very cool connections, as Mr. S notes.

From books to electronic media. Flatscreen TVs are installed all throughout homes so why not have interactivity too? You can't under-estimate Steve Jobs. The guy has so much horsepower under the hood and a garage full of exotic designers, innovators and engineers. A cool tablet really has to be like falling off a wet log for him.

I'm anxiously awaiting the iGenerator! Something really freaking cool that changes the course of history! If they can create an iPhone, why can't I have a zero-point, free energy device installed in my family room? Gotta give Jobs' credit. Big thinking has never been a problem for him! And what better way to elevate all mankind and combat global warming in a single swoop? And I'll leave the naming stuff to them too as I sometimes have a tendency to be rather schlocky. :-)

The only problem with the Apple tablet right now is that it will almost be impossible to live up to the hype. After all, based on the hype, the tablet will have to:

a) be thin enough to make the Mac Air feel heavy
b) be connected to any GSM network
c) include proper video conferencing to effectively destroy Skype and other options
d) wirelessly sync with iPhones, AppleTV
oh yeah and,
e) completely and single-handedly change world and create a brand new business for thousands of developers

That's not too hard, is it?

Seriously though, there is one small problem I foresee.

Since the tablet will use a similar form factor (or so we think right now) as an iPhone/iPod Touch, the tablet will likely support existing iPhone apps. So unless "full screen tablet apps" will cost more than regular apps, Apple will change the entire pricing model for existing tablet style applications. When someone built an application for the Windows XP Tablet, it would be priced just like an existing Windows based application, so about $200-300. I'll use MindManager as an example. It costs $295. The iPhone version of it costs $7.99.

It will have to hit a lot of users to match the original price.

Then again, Apple revolutionized music pricing with iTunes and even though the tablet may change the print or publishing industry (which Apple already did back in 1986), how it affects regular apps could become critical.

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see what happens.

No it doesn't. This is Apple... The fanboys will redefine what the expectations were and the meme will be picked up by the mainstream press and the Halo around Jobs and Apple will be there regardless of whether the Tablet is a huge step forward or not.

True, John. I suppose even if all it changes is the form factor of an iPhone, there will be enough people who will promote it as the next big thing.

But the fanboys aren't necessarily the business owners or managers - or if they are, they at least keep that in check when making business decisions.

Whether the tablet is technologically a huge step forward or not isn't the key issue. What matters more is how disruptive it will be, if it's like how iTunes changed music or how the iPhone changed what people expected of mobile phones.

That's a really interesting point about the full screen apps. Up to now it's all about creating an app that fits into a relatively limited amount of space. I could see them expanding the current size to user a larger font size and going with what's out there or that this is an opportunity for app creators to have an iPhone and an iSlate version to download, creating that many more apps at the app store. If they simply enlarged what's available now that wouldn't be a bad thing but simply easier to read in a sort of "grandma, large font, large picture form.

Personally after watching Jobs reinvent the MP3 player, reinvent the mobile phone, bring video to the ipod ahead of Zune or anyone else, how he reinvented the animation space with Pixar, I have to believe that he will do it again with the iSlate. I certainly wouldn't bet against him pulling this off and watching everyone scurry to catch up. Again, if he adds a video camera on the front and allows video skype calls, face-to-face in nearly life size I'd say, or without this feature, I am guessing he will once again put Apple in the lead in yet another space. I guess that's why he's Fortune magazine's CEO of the decade and why APPL is now worth 2/3 of what MSFT is worth and why APPL now owns the space for computers over $1,000. I'm also guessing that APPL will be worth more than MSFT within three years or less. Considering they went from near bankruptcy to being worth nearly more than Google and so close to MSFT this last decade I would be the last to say Steve and crew will fail with the iSlate. This ain't no Newton. (-8 IMHO - John Gotts

Let's think what is technically possible. Nokia has Nokia booklet 3G which size and battery could give indication what is possible. If Apple uses iPhone's style operating systems and restricts multitasking to be the same kind as in iPhone, they can have system, which performs well and battery lasts about 10 hours, when surfing or watching movies. Size could be a little smaller compared to Nokia's booklet, when you remove keyboard and change harddrive to compact flash; sized about 64GB or 128GB. Only problem I see, is that still the tablet would weight about 1 kilogram or 2,2lb. If it is dropped from waist level, would is survive, it is much heavier than iPhone. I think that I would not give it to my kids to play.

I'm sure I will buy a tablet--as soon as it is an amazing ebook reader, as well. I am not prepared to add two separate gadgets to my life right now.

Tablet computing and especially touch and pen enabled screen devices have a pretty bright future this is offcourse when software follows adequately . Its was never about the form factor or the weight , these are things you can correct but besides what apple is doing with the iphone with regards to user experience working with a touch device everyone else is really far behind. This is something we all owe as software developers to the world, a better user experience. Touch is one of the four primary senses and as such to argue that it does not have a future in computing is very funny.

Completely agree, i think tablets will have à big impact in the home: Why tablets will be huge: media convergence

Apple's approach to redefining computing, has always been to throw mud at the wall and see what sticks. You might say Cjay thats a bunch of crap,well if you want to call it crap then its crap, but here is a little proof in the truth of what I say. Do you remember the Lisa, great idea, great computer but a huge chunk of crap that slid right off the wall. The thing is, apple does not know how to design a computer these days, and really just focuses on what a computer looks like. So Im sure the islate will look great and have some fancy GUI eye candy built in. So ask yourself one thing, what are you going to do when you can't put it in your back pocket, or change the battery out, because we all know how apple is about batteries. Do you really think an electronic clipboard is going to go over big at Starbucks. You already got left at the party cause you got your Mac out in the first place. Do us all a favor and buy an apple computer because you really have a need for one and an the application that an islate could really fill. If you have no clue why you want an islate or mac from apple, you just know that you have to have one, just remember on thing about Apple computer company,,,, They know there are many ways to part a fool from the money.

Tablets have been around for a while, and they've got their uses. This hype over the Apple Tablet is just way overdone.

Phones have been around for a while, and they've got their uses. This hype over the Apple iPhone is just way overdone.

I used to think that too. I'm one of those that was blown away by how cool the blackberry was over the "dumb" phone and then thought it was trash after I got my iPhone. It was easy to use, it comes with a hundred thousand apps, it's elegant and intuitive to use and I don't see a day I throw it away for a droid or a Google phone. It's the single best piece of technology I've experienced in my life, including the Apple IIe, the Mac, my first PC, my current laptop, etc. It works the way you expect it to work, you simply open it up from its box and do what you expect you should and it works that way. The amount of thinking and brilliance that went into the iPhone is unmatched by any device on the market today. The tablet will take all of that and drop it into a replacement for the laptop.

"Imagination is more important than knowledge." — Albert Einstein

There's a reason Joe Wilcox wrote what he did.

It has to do with something called imagination, or more precisely, a probable lack of it.

I've had a tablet for about 5 years. I don't use it too much for everyday use, but for things like reading, drawing it's a far better form factor than a laptop. Easy to imagine it extending the use as there is more thought put into it

The tablet is the next BIG, BIG thing. I personally cannot wait to get mine and to get rid of my HP laptop. I fell in love with the iPhone when I dropped the Blackberry and if all they do is provide us with an oversized iPhone I will be all over it. I will just pray for a longer-lasting battery. posted by John Gotts of www.chum.ly

John, are you thinking tablets will replace laptops? I think most people will continue to prefer laptops.

Robert, I see your points about the advantages of tablets in certain situations, but I disagree about wanting more screens in my life. We already watch screens too much...

http://lowtechtimes.com/2009/03/30/americans-wa...

Howdy spgass,

I'm not saying they will replace laptops immediately but certainly over time. How elegant the idea that you have this light-weight beautiful tablet that allows you to simply touch the screen and turn it on, that with flicks of your fingers puts the thing in motion, allowing you to tap and touch your way through your email, websites, twitter, chum.ly, facebook, music, etc., not to mention that it's a phone. Imagine further that they put a video facing in as well as out so that instead of just having a camera you could talk face-to-face with someone using video skype. That would quickly become THE way to communicate.

I've been using a laptop forever. It's heavy, you have to open it up, wait for it to turn on, boot up, etc. and it's completely clumsy compared with the elegant iPhone. I now use the iPhone more than my laptop when I'm on the go and if I had a nice stand at home I could see just dropping it into its space when I return to the office and grab it when I go.

Yes, in time I believe the tablet will replace the laptop.

John Gotts

Robert,

To me the Tablet is no more or less than the Newton done well. Jobs always proved to be ahead (Apple ][, Lisa, Macintosh, Powerbooks, NeXT, Pixar, iPod, iPhone) and know what people wanted -- even when the technology was not there.

The Newton bombed with bad technology and no connectivity -- it is possible now and to do it well.

Will this fail? As @gartenberg said earlier today -- Apple makes devices for 50,000,000 people, not 50,000. You are saying it is more like 500,000,000+

Agree with both of you

I can tell you one thing, when apple do release a tablet, the preconceptions about them, established by a lackluster head start of about 5 years by Microsoft will be blown out o the water, lets face it, the reason Tables have not worked in the mast is XP Tablet edition or not, is NOT a Tablet OS.. figure that out, get an OS that is, and then start the debate on tablets.. Smartphones suked for ages because the best out there was an XP style start menu OS on most of the mainstream phones, enter iphone, and love it or hate it, none of the current crop of phones are making much use of the Mini XP Win Mobile wannabe, its Iphone or android all the way..

First you have to create a market, then an interface, and THEN a discussuion on the relevence, which the consumer will make. A perfect example of this is the netbook, a format with potential, until Remond got its hands into it.. restricted the HW spec, and ran a cruddy 6 yr old OS on the dammed thing, and suprise suprise the market is nearly dead...