Can Flash be saved?

January 30, 2010 By

UPDATE: for a good counterpoint to this blog, see my new post titled “Google +will+ save Flash.”

Let’s go back a few years to when Firefox was just coming on the scene. Remember that? I remember that it didn’t work with a ton of websites. Things like banks, ecommerce sites, and others. Why not? Because those sites were coded specifically for the dominant Internet Explorer back then.

Some people thought Firefox was going to fail because of these broken links. Just like Adobe is trying to say that Apple’s iPad is going to fail because of its own set of broken links.

But just a few years later and have you seen a site that doesn’t work on Firefox? I haven’t.

What happened? Firefox FORCED developers to get on board with the standards-based web.

The same thing is happening now, based on my talks with developers: they are not including Flash in their future web plans any longer.

This has Adobe freaked out. Big time.

So, can Adobe save Flash? No.

But Google can.

The thing is, does Google want to? Google has been positioning itself as a company that supports the open web. It doesn’t like opaque boxes that aren’t friendly to the web. Google has been putting a lot of support behind HTML 5, for instance, and just a couple of weeks ago added support for HTML 5 to YouTube, which takes away a big chunk of Adobe’s argument (I bet Hulu and other players will soon jump onto the HTML 5 bandwagon, or, at minimum, will support the iPad/iPhone video streaming technologies. Even Ustream.tv has an iPhone app now that works fine with streaming video).

Google is widely seen as the only company right now that is challenging Apple at all (and even then, Google’s Android is clearly #2 in the race and doesn’t look like it will be able to challenge iPhone/iPad this year). After playing a bunch of great games on the iPhone, I don’t agree with the claims that Flash is needed anymore. If Adobe is losing people like me and the developers that decide the future of the web, they are in big trouble.

Could Nokia help Adobe out? No. The web elite don’t have Nokia phones and don’t care about Nokia.

Could Microsoft help Adobe out? Well, unless the Xbox all of a sudden supported Flash in some major and cool way, I don’t see Microsoft support mattering at all to the Web elite. And Microsoft is pushing its own Flash copy, Silverlight, which NBC is using for the Winter Olympics and RedBull is using for its Stratos event (it is expecting five million to watch a guy skyjump from 120,000 feet for the world record).

Could RIM help Adobe out? No, because its customers can’t use the web browser so it won’t be able to convince developers or consumers that it is a web leader.

Is there some way for Adobe to convince Apple that Flash matters? No. Adobe had three years to do that and has failed. That said, Adobe has invited press to its headquarters in the next few weeks to see its new platform and my friends who are using it say it’s pretty nice. Uses very little memory and is friendly on batteries.

So, Adobe’s best hope is to get Android to support Flash and Adobe’s best hope is that developers ignore the iPad and ignore the iPhone, or, at least, build better experiences on the Android and Google Chrome platforms that include Flash.

Well, it has one other thing it could do: it could come out with a set of developer tools that lets you build apps for the iPhone and iPad but that also let you deploy even better features to Android and other platforms.

The thing is, I bet those broken links start disappearing by summertime, so Adobe’s window to keep Flash relevant is closing quickly.

How about you? Can Flash be saved?

Adobe better have a great story to tell at SXSWi, because that’s where a lot of the Web elite gather each year. That means Adobe has six weeks to get an answer together for why Flash is relevant.

Can it do it? Can Flash be saved?

Filed Under: Web
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  • http://twitter.com/davidgilson David.R.Gilson

    I respect your observations and take them on board. Although I have to say that my personal experience has been to contrary. I see very few iPhones 'in the field', whereas I've been truly surprised how many E71's I see in the hands of consumers. Of course, who know's if they're using the web or not. If they're not, that then, more than anything else, means the mobile web browsing has a lot of expanding to do!

    As I say, don't count Nokia/Symbian out yet, especially of the grounds of what they can/can't do right now. I'd be highly surprised if they cut out Flash.

    We'll have to see how HTML5 plays out, but for now, I think Flash is to ingrained in the web for Apple's lack of support for it to make a difference. More than anything, Apple's lack of support for Flash is just hurting their own users (something which they seem to have no qualms about doing, which is why I don't buy their tech), rather than making some sort of idealistic stand against Flash technology.

  • lobster_johnson

    Actually, ActionScript 3 is based on what Adobe assumed would become the next version of ECMAScript. It turns out they jumped the ball; the spec-in-progress that they used, ECMAScript 4, was later abandoned in its entirety, based on the consensus that it was unnecessarily complicated, turning ES into something very close to Java (classes, optional static typing, visibility etc.).

    For the new version of ECMAScript they took ES 3, cleaned it up, added a few minor features, and released it as ES 5. ActionScript is _not_ compatible with ES 5. A future ES version may add back the stuff from ES 4, but it’s too early to tell.

    Adobe’s ActionScript 3 VM is blazingly fast in part because it can use the static typing to turn variables into very efficient bytecode that in turn can be compiled into very efficient machine code. For example, when operating on variables declared as an integer means the VM can generate machine code that uses the processor’s native integer instructions, which would not be possible otherwise without first checking at runtime the types of the variables.

  • http://twitter.com/jhamel Jonathan Hamel

    Silverlight was also use for President Obama inaugural speech. http://bit.ly/914LDP I think Microsoft delivered a solid streaming platform that embed perfectly with IIS7 / Windows 2008. http://www.iis.net/media It has some great features for bandwith optimization and logging that make sense for broadcasters. One of the best MS release in ages…

  • samddisuzoa

    dumb apple sheep like you (Robert Scoble) are elite…. yeah i get it.

    “Could Nokia help Adobe out? No. The web elite don’t have Nokia phones and don’t care about Nokia.”

  • http://hatu.biz/ hatu

    One thing that greatly annoys me is the people blaming Flash for bad resource hog ads or annoying websites.

    Do any of you seriously think that by using the <Canvas> tag instead these people will start optimizing their content?

    Once all the kiddies get their hands on HTML5, you're going to wish you could atleast block the plug-in :)

  • Kaan

    But it is not Adobe's fault is it? If advertisers will stop using Flash they will use something else. They wouldn't leave such an interactive platform for a static one. I also hate ads but if ADS didn't exist web probably would be less developed today.

  • http://helderluis.net/ Helder Luis

    Adobe code stinks even in CS4 !!! Those apps brings my iMac 24″ to his knees…

  • James

    I have a fairly low end Nokia E63 that I can use very effectively on the web. Combined with a dirt cheap tariff and a battery life numbered in days not hours makes this a killer device for me. I downgraded to this after my disappointment with the original iPhone.

  • http://twitter.com/tweetin140 tweetin140

    I was curious about this new term “web elite” and was disappointed that no definition existed in wikipedia. Allow me to craft the beginnings:

    A term used by a very few 'celebrity' bloggers who continue to indicate that their web experience more respected and rich than the countless millions of others. It has been found that the web elite exclusively use iPhone and other Apple devices, and any argument posed by this web elite army [of one] is indicative of total internet failure if the world does not give in to the Apple way of life.”

  • http://twitter.com/tweetin140 tweetin140

    ^^ While the article contains a rather weak argument, both it and the comments have been extremely educational, and altogether a fascinating read. All criticism aside, I thank you for bringing up the argument, albeit with a sensationalist headline.

  • Abhinav Kapoor

    Is it so hard for folks to think why Apple isnt allowing flash? ..
    1) because suddenly there will be a huge flood of developers writing apps on the iphone using flash and they wont have to pay Apple their 30% to take a cut out of each app.
    2) Apps written on flash will run on any other device/phone.. so they lose their competitive touch and suddenly a similar number of apps will be running on both iPhone and Android and Nokia etc.

    This is Apple not letting any other development platform on their device.. be it Java or Silverlight or Flash.. they are not against Adobe here or wit a war with them.. they are just insecure of letting other VM/platforms in their device which would make people throw away that XCode/Objective C garbage and start using familiar tools that even designers can use and not just seasoned developers which find hard to program on Objective C

  • JS

    Both Flash & Silverlight need to die.

  • Warhammer

    “Those apps brings my iMac 24″ to his knees…” Which is exactly where any Apple product likes to be.

  • paul

    The right tool for the right job, i know… but, it can’t be overstated!
    The Photographers, Designers, Architects, and other design professionals that use Flash to develop their portfolio websites are selling an identity, and concept, and very often Flash is deemed the best creative tool to sell their services. To shut out this demographic and their purpose is a huge mistake in my opinion. I’m sure Html5 will be great for the web… but if you look at the very best examples of Flash portfolio sites, I really doubt that it can come as close to liberating the work of these creative professionals at this point.

  • WaltFrench

    @Jeff, my always-overtaxed, 4-year-old CoreDuo MBP with Safari 4.0.4 loved that video. I was surprised to see the source listed as an MP4 because it looked better than some of the more compressed DVDs I occasionally get. Plus, instant scrubbing, no buffering hassles as I often get under Flash, over a WiFi link.

    My “old” laptop doesn't get much graphics help from the GPU even under Snow Leopard, so it took a very manageable 50%–75% of one core for the full-window video. I'd think that anything much more powerful than a Core Solo would be adequate. Looks like it's now up to IE to lead or watch themselves be pushed aside.

    Not six weeks, probably not six months, but for Adobe's sake, I hope they don't believe their own PR BS, and have a high-priority business plan for Flash content creation with multi-format delivery. The site suggests it ain't perfectly easy to develop that quality level, so it looks like Adobe isn't dead unless they volunteer to be.

  • WaltFrench

    @Jeff, Netflix is a commercial enterprise and will choose the format that works best for getting the most customers without major tech hassles. Silverlight looks OK for now, but what commitment would YOU make to a format that MS could drop as quickly as it trashed PlaysForSure if you were the CEO of Netflix?

  • WaltFrench

    @Kaan, it's not about “fault.” It's about moving forward so we can all benefit from news, entertainment and other connections. Who's going to lead?

  • WaltFrench

    “Flash is currently the only way to guarantee a fully cohesive experience across all platforms.”

    Well, that just isn't so. How many millions of Apple iProducts are there busily surfing the we? How many million more each quarter? How many older smartphones have even a tiny fraction of Flash capability? How many tech elites run Flash blockers?

    We're to the point that reliance on Flash is now a major problem for the bottom line of sites that run ads, and a significant threat to repeat visitors (i.e., customers) of sites that insist on Flash for content, as the original post sez.

  • WaltFrench

    Silverlight is great for captive audiences, where you can tell the clients what to use.

    Fr'instance, for intranets, especially because MS owns a lot of the inhouse IT teams. Little retraining from their existing code development approaches; lots of re-use potential if the shops have been good little boys & girls and committed whole hog to .NET.

  • Dimitris

    Totally agree. Silverlight is *mainly* for LOB applications, not for the most customer facing applications.

  • http://twitter.com/ninjamonk Darren Stuart

    yeah very good point, they have the webkit skills so they should get on with it….

    Flash is not going anywhere just because a couple of apple products dont support them. Android have flash coming so I dont see this really being an issue.

  • WaltFrench

    “I'm guessing it probably all started…”

    … and has been continuing with Adobe's ignoring Apple's requests to use its best APIs for exploiting OS X's power.

    Apple has a strong interest in keeping the CS crowd on its platform; from their perspective, Adobe might as well be trying to migrate the user base to Windows by not utilizing the 64-bit and parallel processing tools that can make the Mac machines go like a bat flying out of Hell.

    If this little standoff continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple lob an cross-platform content creation tool for HTML5 at Adobe to make it as easy to post web videos and rich media. Not like they haven't already done similarly with video and photos.

  • jwj75

    can't remember that issue. Big?

  • jwj75

    So Flash is coming from a creative perspective with a large base, Silverlight is coming from a application (C) development perspective and will grow. And HTML5 will overtake all in two years?

  • Andrew

    I think there are a few issues:

    1. Video Support – HTML 5 doesn't have a standard codec and no IE support. At best it will be offered alongside flash for the next few years. And the arguments of H264 vs Theora are valid. H264 is popular, well supported, and probably the most universally supported video codec to date (at least since mpeg2). It's also better than theora, particularly with HD content. So which would you choose? Free but nobody elses it, or the industry best that everybody already uses (but non-free). I doubt they will answer that. So for now flash has it's place in video.

    2. Everything else flash does. Games/Adverts/sockets/webcam chats/etc. I don't see people switching from flash to html 5 for these anytime soon. Why? Flash is already available and works in all browsers?

    3. Apple not supporting flash I think is largely as others have indicated. It may be too slow on their cpu's and give a bad experience. It's also obvious that apple and their itunes store is designed to be the only avenue to your wallet on apple devices. Eventually they'll get nailed with anti-trust lawsuits and be forced to open up somewhat, but obviously they are waiting to get a monopoly first, which from a business point of view makes a lot of sense. Of course then they'll be like Microsoft, unable to innovate or make their products all they could be because they are hampering competition….

    I agree with Adam Sofineti, apple's version of web 3.0 is that you pay for and download and install/update apps. That's a step backwards from web 2.0 which tried to break that cycle from the desktop.

    Even yesterday I was considering the platform for a new application I was writing and had that same choice. Do I write a web app, a winforms app, a wpf app, or a silverlight app? (Obviously I like .net and can re-use a lot of code regardless of what I choose). I was going to write a wpf app but after about 5 minutes I remembered why almost everything I write is a web app. Installing and updating software and keeping it up to date is a pain, so unless my app really needs the performance and system access of a desktop app, I should go with web or silverlight.

  • Stefan Richter

    There, you nailed it. Apple is simply greedy and overly protective. The fact that their browser happens to use Webkit is more of a coincidence than anything else – and be prepared for it to be further crippled once HTML5 offers a way to side-step the App Store. Do you think Apple congratulated Google on its recent web based voice app (while the iPhone app is still being 'reviewed')? No, me neither :-)

  • Stefan Richter

    Yeah right, because Adobe doesn't know how to build a decent web authoring tool and Apple could steamroller them if they chose to… Ever heard of Dreamweaver? What makes you think Adobe has no interest in HTML5 and won't fully support it? Half the web is authored and designed using Adobe products.
    And secondly, do you realise that a web video workflow involves a lot more than a decent HTML authoring environment? A *whole* lot more.

    Lastly: “Adobe's ignoring Apple's requests to use its best APIs for exploiting OS X's power.”
    Care to back this up with a link or two?
    A quick fact check proves that the opposite is the case, and several Adobe employees have gone on public record, such as Lee Brimelow: http://theflashblog.com/?p=1703#comment-640520
    But since they are Adobe they must all be lying, right?

  • JamesKatt

    Flash is DEAD to me. I use ClickToFlash to block Flash automatically and only use it if forced – which causes a lot of teeth gnashing.

    Note that the Android web browser is BASED ON Apple's Webkit (from which Safari is based). Thus Google would have to bolt on a plug-in architecture to support Flash on Android. Google has shown no inclinations of doing this. Thus Adobe is screwed.

    Steve Jobs is a genius in deciding which technologies are obsolete and thus should be discarded. He did this first with Floppies (and now the world has no floppies). He did this with serial ports and SCSI ports (and how we have USB). He is now doing the same with Flash. Thus, I predict Flash will be dead to the rest of the world soon. When Google has its HTML-5 YouTube up and running, then there will be no reason for using Flash on YouTube.

    HTML-5 allows fantastic video streaming. There is no need for Flash on You Tube.

    • Stefan Richter

      Have you been living under a rock? They had Flash 10 running even on a G1

      “Google has shown no inclinations of doing this”
      Oh really? So how come they are working with Adobe, just as everyone else is (except Apple of course)?
      http://www.openscreenproject.org/partners/current_partners.html#Google

      Moreover, not only will Flash 10.1 run nicely on the latest smartphones, it will also support H.264 hardware decoding, which means that video playback performance will be hugely improved.

      It’s quite simple. If Apple wants Flash to run well their devices then they can make it happen. Fact is that performance is not the issue, but compromising App Store revenues is. They just don’t have the guts to tell it how it is.

  • arguing is futile

    Quentin,

    Trying to have a rational argument with Scoble is futile. You must realize his goal is link baiting and that he suffers from ADD.

    He really isn't interested in learning if Adobe is threatened by technologies like HTML5, he is just posting a provocative post on a slow weekend to boost his website traffic.

    He is also not willing to spend the time learning about the technologies he writes to take a rational position.

    Best not to take him to seriously.

  • http://scobleizer.com Scobleizer

    Yeah, that's why I had a 45 minute conversation with a Flash developer last night. I guess you didn't listen.

  • http://scobleizer.com Scobleizer

    Yeah, that's why I had a 45 minute conversation with a Flash developer last night. I guess you didn't listen.

  • arguing is futile

    You had a 45 interview. I am sure you didn't listen.

  • http://scobleizer.com Scobleizer

    Well, it's clear you didn't.

  • glencolby

    Actually, Silverlight does do video streaming alot better than Flash, which im sure was also a part of the decision to use Silverlight

  • http://scobleizer.com Scobleizer

    How is it better than Flash? I watched the Help Haiti video which was live streaming and it looked just about as good as my HDTV. Same with U2 concert, which was live streamed on YouTube.

  • http://jameswilliams.be/blog James Williams

    Maybe in theory but not in practice. From an Olympiophile who watched around the clock, it wasn't good. Hulu has done a good job of streaming live events so it can be done.

    FTR, I would love for HTML5 video to replace Flash.

  • McBeese

    A few comments:

    1. 'Web elite'? Excuse me? Personally, I think the Web would be a lot better off if California experienced 'the big one' and all of the self-appointed 'Web Elite' slid into the Pacific and stopped screwing up the Web experience for 'Web Users' (both elite and not elite).

    2. Is anyone involving the Web's biggest user of Web video in the dialog on what's going to happen? No, I'm not talking about YouTube or Hulu, I'm talking about the porn industry.

    3. The process is broken. I don't give a damn about flash or html5 or silverlight. I care about being able to watch hulu, news feeds, and anything else i want. The technical elite that refuse to support the most widely deployed technologies for reasons of 'technical purity' are anti-customer and I hope they fail.

  • McBeese

    I guess what I'm saying is, don't stop supporting flash until the alternative is available. html5 is far, far from ready to take over.

    Give me choices when you're ready to. Don't block my access to flash while you aren't.

  • McBeese

    How would you 'Web elite types' like it if the 'Telecom elite types' decided that CDMA and GSM were obsolete because LTE and WiMax were looking better… and stopped supporting CDMA and GSM *NOW*?

  • WaltFrench

    A bit tetchy, are we?

    “What makes you think Adobe … won't fully support [HTML5]?”
    Please see above, where I said, “…for Adobe's sake, I hope they … plan for Flash content creation with multi-format delivery.”

    I explicitly prefaced these remarks with “If this little standoff continues…” because I don't know enough of Adobe's intentions to make an educated guess. I do observe that Adobe has countered the rise of the Flashless iProducts and other mobile devices with statements about how Flash is available on 98% of desktops. That's okay PR-speak but doesn't sound like a business plan in the rather possible event that people keep buying Apple iProducts as fast as they can crank them out.

    “Care to back this up with a link or two?”
    Adobe's FAQ is dated almost 2 years ago, explaining that (one) advanced Mac capability will wait for CS5. It doesn't exactly confess that they have been stuck on deprecated APIs for a couple of years, but it does document it. Jon Gruber's reportage seems pretty even-handed about the difficulties involved; with hindsight we can say there have been 2+ years during which Apple has added further power- and memory-enhancing techniques only on Cocoa. I'll offer that “ignoring” over-stated the case; I should have said that for years, now, Adobe has stuck to its guns on its plans to defer using Apple's best technologies.

    “…such as Lee Brimelow… must all be lying, right?”
    I regret that my quoting the previous poster's comment on Photoshop left it unclear that I, too, was discussing Photoshop. Mr. Bimelow's link explicitly addresses Flash. (The original topic; fancy that.) I have no quarrel with Mr. Brimelow's frustrations about being caught in this war when I'm sure all he wants to do is good work. It's not my style to think that people are lying, let alone accuse them of it.

    Again, my intention is not to take sides between two parties; I, too am caught in the middle and don't enjoy being collateral damage. Whether it's because Jobs is the meaner SOB or because the internet is going a different direction, I merely expect that we'll see a different Flash environment in the coming years. Ultimately, all of us in this industry thrive on change, no matter how much pain it costs in the short run.

  • John

    Steve couldn’t have known how much longer he had on this earth. Maybe he never gave into dark thoughts. Or, maybe the iPad is his best effort to secure a legacy for himself and his companies.

  • john_mclane

    Does Robert Scoble make a living talking about stuff he knows nothing about?

  • McBeese

    Yes, it seems so.

  • http://sharedtut.com/ Sharedtut

    flash wont' die, if anything they better figure out a way to make it compatible. Otherwise
    adobe will come up with it's own device and then it will take over.

  • riccardo_larosa

    i don't think it will die so quickly. for instance:

    3 of the top sporting apparel companies (nike, adidas, reebok) have heavily invested in flash technologies (north of several million dollars over the last 10 years) because their (creative) agencies told them that the experience they could create was superior [disclaimer: two of these companies are clients]. Even if today they decide to change direction and get rid of flash/flex all together it will take several years (my bet is at least 3 years if everything goes well). In the meantime if you have an ipad the experience you will get visiting these sites will be far from excellent.

    some more thoughts here http://bit.ly/aGaySt

  • http://twitter.com/nicotroia Nicholas Troia

    Flash is an extremely powerful tool in any good developers toolkit and to say HTML5 is anywhere near a replacement is just foolish. I love how many users here believe Steve Jobs can just do away with Flash, like he is some wizard – get real. The entire Actionscript, Flex and Air library has so much potential to create beautiful and powerful multifunctional RIAs, yet so many developers continue to ignore it. While reading this article it became very obvious you are unaware of what Flash can even do. Regardless, it's not going anywhere.

    Mr. Scoble, if you say there are other languages that can make Flash obsolete, then at least give us some examples. Sorry, but this is a very ignorant Apple-fanboy driven argument.

  • Bobs your uncle

    The iPad locks out all plugins… and the only one everyone is talking about is Flash. Just shows how integral Flash really is!

  • http://miladinoski.com Miladinoski

    > The Nokia sales around the world are mostly for crappy phones like the N95 or N97, or, really, their cheaper lines that have crappy screens, crappy browsers, etc.

    What a developed vocabulary! The curious reader should also note the availability of factual proof in over why Nokia phones are so damn “crappy” after they re-read your comments & article. Oh, wait, there is none!

    I won't even mention the accompanied bitterness tied into the remarks about RIM and their highly “unpopular” BlackBerries; oh boy, we have an Apple fanboy here on sight, run for your lives!

  • ckdozi

    so much here, my eyes are blurring with much interneting tonight. Why isn't flash on the smart/droid phones? would live on my phone if i had flash available for download on my phone.

  • Stefan Richter

    Couldn't agree more.

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