Dear Nokia fans: you’re nuts!

Nuts!

Nokia-Microsoft concept phones

If you go over to Nokia’s announcement where they announced a sweeping deal with Microsoft and read all the comments you’ll see that most of the comments are in total despair mode.

It’s like a bunch of Google employees are astroturfing the comments there. “I’m gonna buy Android” they all say. Many others say “how can Elop (Nokia’s CEO) bet on a failed platform?” Other blogs are calling this note “a suicide note.”

You all are nuts.

So, let’s all take a deep breath together and calm down. I know it’s shocking to hear that your beloved Symbian sucks, but I’ve been saying it for years and you’ve been calling me names. I come from the future and I know you don’t like to be dragged into it.

You’ll soon come to see that Windows Phone 7 actually rocks and actually is a lot nicer to use than Android.

“So why has it sold so poorly then Smartass Scoble?”

Because it has no apps.

Nothing matters in this world more than apps. Write that on your forehead. Write that on the mirror on your bathroom wall. Write that on your car windshield. Whatever it will take so you remember it.

HP execs know this. Google’s execs know this. Everyone in Silicon Valley knows this.

Apps are the ONLY thing that matters now.

Why? Because when a customer, whether in Cape Town or San Francisco or Tel Aviv walks into a store to buy a smartphone they will NOT want to feel stupid.

What makes you feel stupid when buying a Smartphone? Buying one that doesn’t have the apps your friends are taunting you with.

Right now Nokia and Windows Phone 7 are out of the game. That’s why Google’s exec, Vic Gundotra, is calling them both “turkeys.”

Does this get both into the game? Yes!

Here’s why.

1. Nokia has distribution. Distribution Google doesn’t yet have. Nokia has dealers and stores in the weirdest places on earth. Places Apple won’t have stores in for decades, if ever.

2. MIcrosoft has a great OS. I like it better than Android. If you actually USED a Windows Phone 7 you’d see that to be true.

3. Microsoft has great developer tools.

4. Microsoft has Xbox. Which has just been rejuvenated with Kinect (hottest selling product in history, even hotter than the iPad!) IE, some parts of Microsoft ARE cool!

5. Nokia has great hardware design and supply chains. They always have great cameras, great screens. Supply chains matter. A lot more than anyone thinks (the stuff Apple never talks about, but works its ass off on is supply chain management — I got to see this first hand when I visited China).

You add that all up as a salad and now the smart developers have to take another look at Microsoft and Nokia. They can’t ignore them like they can RIM (we all know people won’t use a lot of cool apps on a Blackberry).

So, should Nokia have gone Android? No way. That takes them through a real commoditization (IE, non differentiated) minefield. One that Nokia execs aren’t smart enough to get through.

See, what you don’t know is Nokia just doesn’t have the right people to play in this new world. They needed to join the engineering teams at Nokia who know how to build great hardware with someone else who knows how to build services. That someone else is Microsoft. No one else was as strong a fit and if you think Google is it, well, sorry, no. That would be even worse for Nokia because Nokia needs to have something different than HTC has (Nokia can’t compete with China’s brightest minds).

So, sorry, Nokia fans, you just aren’t looking at this deal the right way.

This is the only way Stephen Elop could go in this war to get app developers excited again.

What you should be asking yourself is “can Elop really execute?” That I’m not so sure about and we’ll only know for sure six to 18 months from now. But the strategy is the right one.

You should buy a Windows Phone 7 before you run off your mouth. That’s why you all are nuts when you say you’re buying Android. What a hoot!

Photo credit: Iain Buchanan, Creative Commons licensed photo.

UPDATE: Engadget just released these Nokia/Microsoft concept phone photos.

About Robert Scoble

As Startup Liaison for Rackspace, the Open Cloud Computing Company, I travel the world with Rocky Barbanica looking for what's happening on the bleeding edge of technology and report that here.

238 thoughts on “Dear Nokia fans: you’re nuts!

  1. Scoble, once again you miss the boat. I know you have made it, and are no longer alligned to a single organization, but wake up dude.

    MSFT and Nokia are the two dead last players in the mobile segment. They will burn a ton of cash, and take too long to be relevant.

    Who is their target audience, people who have NEVER seen a real smart device (Android, iPhone), so they can promise features, yet fall way behind the curve?

    1. I’m an Apple fan and was first in line for both the iPhone and iPad (literally). So, my cred as being “in the boat” is well intact. That said, Nokia and Microsoft together get them into the back of the boat. They weren’t there before.

      Thanks for playing!

    2. I’m an Apple fan and was first in line for both the iPhone and iPad (literally). So, my cred as being “in the boat” is well intact. That said, Nokia and Microsoft together get them into the back of the boat. They weren’t there before.

      Thanks for playing!

  2. Android > iOS > WP7 > Symbian

    WP7 – Symbian – Meego = FAIL

    Android is selling 4x faster than iOS, about 300x faster than WP7.

    Android sales will only accelerate while iOS sales are going down and WP7 sales will go nowhere.

    UIs mean little compared to the ecosystems, Android is by far the best ecosystem.

    Ecosystem = Manufacturers + Developers

    The only manufacturers making WP7 do it at gun point with Microsoft basically threatening them (see Motorola) with lawsuits if they don’t make WP7 smartphones. Nobody is actually buying WP7 devices and carriers don’t even want it.

    1. Yup, but this does change the game more than you are willing to state. But, yeah, both Microsoft and Nokia are in a deep hole together. It’s smart to join forces when you are in a deep hole, though.

      And don’t count out iOS. At the recent LIFT conference in Europe most of the audience had iPhones. I don’t see that changing noticeably. Apps will drive sales and profits. Apple has most of the profits for a reason and they will use those profits to make sure developers keep building the best apps for its platform.

  3. The real winner is Microsoft. Nokia will make sure ‘Windows Phone 7′ brand is marketed with every advert. This will make other manufacturer (Samsung, Moto, HTC, etc) also jump into bandwagon seeing the popularity. MS will forget their old partner Nokia. Then it will be too late for Nokia to realise the situation. All said..they do not have any other choice it is a burning platform, it will burn slowly rather than fast just like Yahoo-Bing..but will ultimately go down.

  4. This is a great deal for MS; whether it’s a good deal for Nokia remains to be seen. Nokia as a commodity hardware manufacturer making phones running stock WP7 is competing with the likes of HTC, and needs to cut its workforce by ~90% and get used to a life with 2% profit margin and very marginal stock growth. The principle profits in computing are always at the non-substitutable platform levels.

    MS has a platform in WP7, and MS is a platform company, well used to extracting rents by exploiting the inability of vendors to make the underlying platform easily substitutable. The more developers they can attract, especially developers who are exclusive to their platform, the more lock-in they can get, and fight against Apple lock-in, Android lock-in, etc. Makes their platform sticky.

    Nokia had a couple of platforms, and they were in deep trouble. But by now decisively abandoning those platforms, they have not shown that they have any platform strategy. If they ship a stock WP7 – and it remains to be seen that they will – using an MS store, MS dev tools and the whole kit, then they really are screwed, and the market will cut the stock down to its appropriate size. The stock may have been inflated in the past over uncertainty over potential platform rents; by decisively forgoing those rents, the potential future upside on profits is forgone, and the stock should fall back.

    I think Nokia is still in deep trouble, not because they risk going out of business, but because they have now effectively given up on being a major player in what phones become in the future. I hope they have a secret back-up plan.

  5. Robert, it seems our latest discussion was not so far off the mark as we thought

    Yes WP7, Yes Symbian will not be dropped on the spot but will continue to be developed (perhaps “even” slower) for as long there is reasonable demand, and MeeGo is not ready yet and is used as a future scout?

    I wish them luck, I would buy an E7 with WP7, on the spot.

  6. So… How much did they pay you to write this down? :)) You are “Gone with the Wind” bro :)) As I say it before: Eslop is the Poison Apple of Ugly Queen/Blue Screen (Microsoft) for White Snow (Nokia) :))) Read my lips: Nokia is going down with this stupid move.

      1. HAHAHA the market tells you All about this stupid Move. Nokia drop “just” 14% of the price. As I said it “Mark my Words” Nokia buried :))

        This is why you flagged my answer? :))) Mubarak? :)))

  7. I always felt that Meego was a distraction from what Maemo could have been. The N900 was such a great device for it’s time, but instead of focusing on it Nokia decided to partner with Intel and start the process all over again.

      1. Completely disagree here. WP7 is up and running and out in production, Meego seems nowhere near complete. Nokia don’t have to spend time and resources on OS framework & UI design anymore, only integration with existing Ovi services.

        1. 1. WP7 is up and running and out in production?!? What about the promised copy and paste and multitasking?

          2. only integration with existing Ovi services?!? Same as saying the WP7 only needs integration into iTumes and you’ll have an iPhone killer

  8. Nokia also singlehandedly created a market for mobile phones as fashionable gadgets. Look at the black plastic brick phones from the late 90′s and see the evolution, with colourful and sometimes zany designs and fantastic additional features. And what do we see on the shelf now? Row upon row of identical black plastic slabs.

  9. I don’t know if it’s about apps as much as it is ecosystems. Apple has the iTunes ecosystem of which the App Store plays a big role. It includes easy updates, backups, media syncing etc. Which is compelling to users. But Android and Windows Phone both have different ecosystems that are also compelling to certain users. Android has Google services such as Gmail, Google Calendar, Maps, Picasa and a plethora of other Google centric tie-ins that are more useful to certain users. Microsoft brings Office, Zune and Xbox Live to the table.

    Apple has a more attractive ecosystem to most users and developers therefore they see more adoption and customer satisfaction. Apps are obviously a huge part of that, one thing to keep in mind though is that most apps are simply front-ends for web sites. The main reason they exist is the constraints of both mobile screen real-estate and mobile browser power. I agree with @Mona that the future of apps is platform agnostic.

    Nokia (Elop) has recognized the importance of a strong ecosystem and has found one in Windows Phone 7.

  10. I agree, apps are what make the platform. Since there are no apps on WP7, will Nokia users just migrate to a new platform? It just seems to me that this is a “swing for the fences” shot here for Nokia, like one last try before becoming irrelevant.

    Will Nokia just use internal resources to build-out the apps that Microsoft can’t seem to conjure any third-parties to write.

    The problem with Microsoft is they are damaged goods and I don’t know if they have what it takes to be relevant any more. MS used to be a giant marketing machine but now they seem like Godzilla in a bad Japanese film just swatting at things in the air hoping to knock something down. It has been a long time since they “got it” and more developers are migrating from MS as opposed to migrating to them. WP7 may be a rocking OS but MS is the company nobody likes or will give a chance to any longer.

    Just my 2 cents.

    1. WP7 has about 6,000 apps on it already. That’s far from “none.” But they have a long way to go. The thing is, will developers take WP7 seriously now? Certainly they will take it more seriously than yesterday. But, like I said, execution is what matters now that the strategy is set.

      1. Right, they do have 6,000 apps but I was comparing to Apple. 6000 vs. Apple is almost none. I think folks will wait for apps but it is still up to the developers. Can they make money on the platform? I am a developer and I stand a decent chance of making money on iOS but very unlikely on Android. From what I see with WP7, no one is making money with it because there are few users. There has to be a draw for devs to come and it is usually money.

        Bottom line, if people won’t pay for apps the devs won’t come. I certainly would not waste my time on Android just to give my app away HOPING I can make it in advertising. It can be done, is being done, but I can’t rely on it.

        1. In reply to rbazinet — thread didn’t work right; I did something wrong…

          Try comparing 6000 apps to the “quality” apps for the iOS. Quantity isn’t everything. Also, the whole “no one is making money” thing is chicken and egg. “If you build it, they will come.” – yeah a bit simplistic, but there’s some truth in that.

          Also development productivity (via Silverlight and XNA) for the WP7 will prove to be much improved over Objective-C / Cocoa Touch.

          It will happen. Don’t decided on day one. Come back in a year or so and say you haven’t changed your mind.

          1. I understand what you are saying, WP7 is young and you are right. I am comparing what *might* happen to WP7 as what *is* happening on Android, lots of apps but few are willing to pay.

            I also agree there is a ton of really crappy apps on iOS but there is also a lot of really good apps that people are actually paying for. I have an iPhone and a Droid X and the experience means a lot, Android is crap, in my humble opinion. I have heard a lot of good things about WP7 but not having played with one, I have to reserve judgement.

      2. Actually there are over 8000 apps now, and the app store is growing at around 1000 apps every few weeks. Some of the big development houses are starting to notice, and there are many indie devs that are filling in the gaps. Not to mention some of the apps are stunningly beautiful examples of how powerful Silverlight can be ( http://youtu.be/Qghf4e2n0Yc ).

        http://wmpoweruser.com/over-8000-apps-in-the-wp7-marketplace-growing-same-pace-as-iphone-appstore-much-faster-than-android-market-did/

    2. People are still buying Nokia symbian phones in truckloads, wherein no. and quality of apps is poor. WP7 gives atleast a better experience, and growing ecosystem. But both of them need to sprint. It is a marathon but other players are 20 miles ahead.

    3. People are still buying Nokia symbian phones in truckloads, wherein no. and quality of apps is poor. WP7 gives atleast a better experience, and growing ecosystem. But both of them need to sprint. It is a marathon but other players are 20 miles ahead.

  11. Yes, Symbian is flawed and was NOT going to enthuse developers. Elop realized this and scrapped it. Have you ever talked with a third-party developer? I have. They hated Symbian.

  12. Broadly agree with your post and I am a dyed-in-the-wool Nokia fan (though not nuts).

    It wasn’t the only way that Elop could have gone. He could have built and put all resources behind Meego and Qt. The results would have been amazing, and could have been delivered much sooner than the first Nokia WP7 phones will be. I doubt whether any major roadblocks with Meego were technical and I’m sure that’s a key reason why Microsoft was chosen.

    Nokia’s company culture sucked, it was bloated, arrogant and blind to reality, it never understood the web (Ovi was an absolute disaster). There’s a huge swathe of middle-management who will never realise that _they_ are the people responsible for the pivot we see today. They will always want to blame someone else for what has happened.

    There’s a whole lot of interesting opportunities now provided that cuture can be/has been changed and the strategy executed.

    PS: Qt in particular has an excellent developer community that today feels like it’s been shat on from a very great height. Do please try and maintain some empathy for those developers.

    1. From what i heard from Nokia execs they just don’t believe in Meego. Plus, their message with third-party developers just wasn’t working. Nokia couldn’t get USA-based developers (which are 70% of what matters to this app world) enthused by Meego, no matter what. Nokia realized this. Microsoft, however, does have some traction here and good relationships with developers. This is a far better choice.

      Remember, the ONLY thing that matters is apps. Meego was NEVER going to get them there.

      1. Not sure “the ONLY thing that matters is apps”. Integration, usability and hardware are higher consumer draws. Never having seen MeeGo, most can’t speculate how good this would have been. Agree that M7 stacks-up well against Android 2.2 now – but 2.3 is pending and GOOG iterate MUCH faster than MSFT. People are shocked why Nokia shifted from an OS with maybe 30% worldwide market share to M7 (1.5%). They also remember Sendo/Kin drops from MSFT.

        It would be great to get your follow-on views on the Elop announcement around how the company is now split (Smart devices/phones).

      2. As I understand it, any Nokia exec approved to brief people like yourself would have been be on-message and ambivalent on Meego for quite a while.

        Intel have stated that they are ‘not blinking’ on Meego. That’s a great decision.

        Native apps are very important, yes. Web apps are also important. I founded a mobile app dev co in 2006 – in Beijing. Naturally, I’m inclined to disagree with you on the US 70% RoW 30% metric too.

        Guess we can agree that for Nokia and Microsoft it all comes down to execution now. With 1,000 feisty Finns walking out in denial yesterday, that’s not looking good.

        We’re going to see just how good a leader Stephen Elop really is, in short time.

  13. Neat UI on WP7. Personally, can’t consider it due to lack of a file manager, mass storage mode, multitasking, and it’s as tied to a Win/Mac client as iOS is.

    You shouldn’t have to run Win or OSX to fully use a smartphone.

  14. I predicted this yesterday: http://splatinteractive.tv/2011/02/nokia-to-partner-with-microsoft/

    The prediction was: “Nokia and Microsoft will enter into a strategic partnership that will increase overall sales of WP7 phones, but will not materially affect the declining sales figures for Nokia smartphones. They will make this choice because it is a better corporate fit, not because it is the best long-term bet.”

    Why do I say it won’t help Nokia’s market share? Elop himself has said you have to market into an ecosystem. The problem is that ecosystems build on the network effect and Android already has momentum. Any arguments about technical excellence (right are not) are wasted effort, because that isn’t the determining factor. WP7 is a lost cause in the long run.

    1. You are forgetting Xbox. This can work, but it will demand that Elop not just is a master strategist, but someone who can execute. So far Nokia execs who are working with him are impressed. We’ll see, but at least this company has turned the corner into the reality-based world. That’s HUGE.

    2. You are forgetting Xbox. This can work, but it will demand that Elop not just is a master strategist, but someone who can execute. So far Nokia execs who are working with him are impressed. We’ll see, but at least this company has turned the corner into the reality-based world. That’s HUGE.

      1. How much money did MS pump into XBox before it started to be profitable, in a market with almost no competition? If it took an astounding amount of cash to succeed in market with two competitors (both with closed platforms) how much is going to take to compete in a market with several platforms (some closed, some open) and loads of manufacturers?

          1. LIke I said – almost no competition … market with two competitors (both with closed platforms)

            Did I really need to explicitly state Sony and Nintendo?

            So, they had only 2 competitors to contend with in games compared to mobile where they have Apple/iOS, Crackberry, Samsung/bada, HP/webOS and the ever increasing legion of Android makers. If it took a vast amount of money to get anywhere in games with a tiny amount of competitors how much is going to cost them to get anywhere in mobile where they have dozens (if not hundreds) of competitors?

            If anything, Nokia’s going cost them extra – if you’re one of Microsoft’s other WP7 makers are you going to stick with MS now that they have their new super special best friend Nokia and your WP7 phones have had dismal sales compared to their Android siblings? Probably not, unless MS give you something in return.

          2. Its not really how many competitors there are its how dominant they are, when the XBox launched nobody though they had a chance against Sony, look at them now. Its simple incorrect to say Sony was almost no competition, they pretty much owned the console market.

  15. its just too late for me since I got Android in July. I could try WP7 but why would I? I also have year and hall left on contract but think it would be a step down.
    There are other people who’ll try it if they haven’t used Android or iPhone lol

  16. Scoble, I just snagged an HTC HD7 to test out for a few weeks. I’ll post my thoughts and reactions on RickyCadden.com (and maybe MobileRnR.com).

    I agree with you. Nokia has demonstrated time and time again that they suck at software. This morning, my computer was running slow, so I pulled up the process manager – 160MB of RAM was going to Ovi Suite. I haven’t connected my N8 to my computer in several days. WTF?

    Here’s to the future, whatever the crap it’s going to look like.

  17. Great to see the positivity around this collaboration! We look forward to delivering our first Nokia Windows Phones in 2012 to ensuring that your experience with Nokia is even better than before!

  18. If its all about Apps then its also all about the developer platform and platform reach. Microsoft has the best dev platform and Nokia brings the reach.
    This deal looks very sound to me,.

  19. I think Microsoft will succeed here, most people buying android or WP7 don’t care about OS or apps, they are just looking for the latest mobile phone (MOST, does not include you guys reading this) so good distribution, brand and availability is what matters in this space, Nokia is the best for Microsoft.

  20. I agree 100% with your take on this. Microsoft was having slow sales. Nokia had TWO old OS’s that would take years to bake. Together though they have a modern OS with a hardware maker that has a huge global reach, and as noted TONS of carrier agreements for things like billing which is vital to a successful app store (Apple is only able to get by because of the wide reach of iTunes already, everyone else needs to bill through the carrier to be competitive). This means a really strong three way race with each player having massive strengths. Going to be a fun few years.

  21. I agree 100% with your take on this. Microsoft was having slow sales. Nokia had TWO old OS’s that would take years to bake. Together though they have a modern OS with a hardware maker that has a huge global reach, and as noted TONS of carrier agreements for things like billing which is vital to a successful app store (Apple is only able to get by because of the wide reach of iTunes already, everyone else needs to bill through the carrier to be competitive). This means a really strong three way race with each player having massive strengths. Going to be a fun few years.

  22. I agree and would like to extend: I love Nokia Phones. Top hardware. my N95 had better (and more) hardware than anything else for 3 years. I hate Symbian. Why? I can’t even listen to audiobooks! It’s impossible! There is NO software. Why? Because coders are stupid! The market is unbelievable! nokia still has 34% market share! apple has 2%! http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1421013 Still, complaining does not help.
    I love Windows. Why? Software! more than anywhere else! Every game, every tool, every nieche product is there for Windows. Now combine best hardware, best distribution and most widespread operating system (windows owns the world and even if you like iOS Stats are clear) and thus the best syncing experience, the broadest code-support, the best and most diverse hardware driver support and there are no limits to the potential. now if only they execute it well. AND if only enough developers realize their chance! with mobile and fixed computers fusing for work and fun ever more having great sync, apps that run on full-sized hardware just like on your mobile will be key. And I will buy the very first Nokia Windows 7 device that’s out, simply because it’ll make my life so much easier!

    1. not only that OVI was a money losing business. They have been searching for a leader for it for almost two years. I was approached by a leading search firm looking for this person about a year ago, and it was clear that it was far from profitability and they wanted them in London, Espoo, or Boston. That was a clear mistake because they needed to be in the Valley of LA where the content is. NYC, maybe.

      After 10 years of trekking to Espoo I’d say they had decent SW leaders once, but the industry and the capabilities by others changed dramatically and pulled their rug out from under them.

      Where they have struggled, and continue to struggle is services. Navteq one exception.

    2. I don’t understand that. If they had done this, they would specifically have NOT needed to worry about the software side of things. The irony is that by not touching the software, and by letting Google handle all the OS updates, they would have differentiated themselves from every other manufacturer on the market.

      1. Slight problem with this is that if Nokia were successful doing this (no customization), the other vendors and carriers could stop very easily. Android is a race to the bottom for manufacturers.

    3. Mary McDowell is smart as hell. Worked with her at Compaq in Houston in the early 90′s when she put NT Server on the map and killed NetWare. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if some of those same Microsoft contacts were involved in this deal.

      1. At Nokia Mary has been managed to create unbroken chain of failures. She destroyed Nokia in US, she destroyed the business/enterprise phone segment for Nokia. I was sure she would be ousted based on results, or lack of them, but apparently Elop likes yes-(wo)men.

  23. There are over 8,000 apps in the WP7 Marketplace, which I believe is more than webOS and approaching what BB has. That’s not bad for a phone that has only been out for just about 3 months. They are seeing over 400 apps released each week and many are high quality ones. The Xbox LIVE games are awesome too.

    1. Exactly and with Nokia on board the app developers will pour more resources into this. They all just got the signal that Microsoft AND Nokia are serious.

      1. I don’t think that that necessarily follows. WP7 programming is not Symbian programming – if you’re moving off Symbian development you’re going to go to iOS and/or Android as that’s where the users are. You’ve already been burned by Nokia (there were just saying QT was the way forward, now it’s not), so why would you stick with them? Nokia and Microsoft might be sending signals that they’re serious, but all that means is that they’re serious about a platform that few people appear to want.

        1. The Nokia developers don’t matter. They can go wherever they want. They weren’t doing the bleeding edge innovative apps (name one innovative app developed for Symbian only lately). Those folks already are on iOS. So, you gotta convince the iOS folks to take your platform seriously.

  24. Hi Scoble = Halley here. Thanks for this reasonable blog post, but you know I’m a little biased as my husband is a Nokia Senior Software Engineer and should hear a little more today at his office about what’s next for his team.

  25. I’m an Android user and big fan, but Nokia/WP7 combination puts them back on the market for me. My sister has the HTC Mozart and she loves it, and playing around with the OS is a really nice experience.

    I haven’t moved to WP7 yet cause of the lack of apps. Nokia adopting WP7 gives Microsoft more phones out in the market, which entices more developers to write for the platform.

  26. I am a android dev and I sort of agree that Nokia had no choice but to go with WP7. They could have heavily skinned Android to differentiate and add services on top of if, but they don’t need to do that with WP7. And since WP7 hasn’t really got on yet, they can be more involved in the direction of the platform.

    However, I think Nokia is dead regardless.

    WP7 might have been the better pick but it doesn’t mean it will be successful.

    1. This was the only choice that Nokia had. Android was a pool in which to drown in commoditization. I outlined this back on Tuesday in my post The Burning Platform- Why Windows Phone 7 Makes Sense for Nokia http://newdigitalcafe.com/?p=2616

      Symbian was rapidly losing mindshare among consumers and enterprise users alike. WP7 is a great UI, but I agree, it has not sold a lot of phones yet! There has been so much focus on the tablet wars this past year that the smartphone war now has time to re-adjust.

      For several year’s I’ve been saying that the industry can not support 6 smartphone OSes- Apple, Android, BlackBerry, Windows, Symbian, WebOS and that we would see at least one or two shake out by late 2010/early 2011. So one has.

      HP is putting all its chips behind WebOS now. We’ll see how global they can get.

      @randygiusto and @ipsosvantis

      1. I agree – the industry has to go through further consolidation – I can see HP buying up RIM over the next 24 months. If HP can execute – they can carve out a huge business that a bit more focused on SME – Apple has the premium consumer market that leaves Google and Microsoft to battle it out in the mass consumer market. I also believe over time we’ll see a shift to more and more HTML browser based app that gives “publishers” direct access to their customers rather than having to deal with the vagaries of the apps sorts rules.

    2. This was the only choice that Nokia had. Android was a pool in which to drown in commoditization. I outlined this back on Tuesday in my post The Burning Platform- Why Windows Phone 7 Makes Sense for Nokia http://newdigitalcafe.com/?p=2616

      Symbian was rapidly losing mindshare among consumers and enterprise users alike. WP7 is a great UI, but I agree, it has not sold a lot of phones yet! There has been so much focus on the tablet wars this past year that the smartphone war now has time to re-adjust.

      For several year’s I’ve been saying that the industry can not support 6 smartphone OSes- Apple, Android, BlackBerry, Windows, Symbian, WebOS and that we would see at least one or two shake out by late 2010/early 2011. So one has.

      HP is putting all its chips behind WebOS now. We’ll see how global they can get.

      @randygiusto and @ipsosvantis

      1. Scoble, you should seriously visit Getjar.com, also don’t compare the apps on iPhone with others, it’s the developers who have to create apps not platforms.

        Once Android fixes their issues with the market, they will see more developers. It is hard though for Windows because of their botched marketplace.

        Anyways, I am a mobile app developer and seriously made my company think about developing HTML5 apps rather than platform specific apps. who wants to take the headaches of redeveloping the same thing over and over again.

        I believe many developers think like me too and in the coming year you will see tons of apps available as HTML5 apps rather than platform specific apps, except for maybe games.

        1. Funny, I just had dinner with GetJar’s CEO. Agreed that HTML5 will see more apps, there are a range of apps that don’t need platform-specific stuff.

  27. Robert, very nicely articulated!! However, here are some reactions to your posts:
    1. As you rightly point out, APPS are the driving force behind adoption of smart phones. Consumers really do not care about whether they are using iOS or Android as long as they can run the desires apps. Nokia really needed some help here, but WP7 is struggling in this respect itself. May be WP7 is a superior OS, but that does not seem to be front and center in consumers mind.

    May be Nokia made the right choice, but I am finding it difficult to see how Microsoft will help Nokia. The stock markets do not seem to like this decision either. Meanwhile, I was just reading the fate of previous MS mobile partners (http://www.asymco.com/2011/02/11/in-memoriam-microsofts-previous-strategic-mobile-partners/)

    2. Android commoditization is a misnomer to me. Motorola and HTC seem to be the dominant ones. Given Nokia’s strengths (e.g., distribution, hardware), they are in a much better position to out-compete any Android phones. Given Nokia’s clout, Google would have bent backwards to work with Nokia.

    Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see how this evolves.

    1. Samsung is well on its way to being the dominant global brand-name Android-based phone maker. It’s already pulled about even with HTC, despite starting about a year later. It’s got tremendous supply chain and distribution advantages.

      1. Oops….thanks for bringing Sammy back in the discussion. In fact, Samsung’s ascent just supports the argument that I was making earlier. Samsung has better brand equity and distribution as compared to both Motorola and HTC and this helped Samsung become a dominant glabal brand-name Android phone maker.

        In the mobile space, it is difficult to argue that Nokia has a much better penetration and brand recall. If Samsung was able to differentiate its wares from the other Android phones, why can’t Nokia?

  28. “So why has it sold so poorly then Smartass Scoble?”
    “Because it has no apps.”

    “What makes you feel stupid when buying a Smartphone? Buying one that doesn’t have the apps your friends are taunting you with.”

    This is so very true and yet so hard to get across to people who dismiss apps as a fad. They sell phones. Otherwise why would every manufacturer include them in literally every single ad campaign at the moment.

    If you watch people in bars and resturants, they are showing apps off to each other ‘look at this!’. I’ve never seen anyone of my friends show me a Ovi app.

    Right now Microsoft is going around to agencies offering to pay for apps (in full, partially or via promotion) for their big brand clients. However it doesn’t look like its working.

    To be honest with mobile budgets at the moment you have a hierarchy of platforms, iOS, Android and Mobile Web being the top 3 and if there is anything left in the pot maybe Blackberry.

    WP7 is generally way down on the list unless it’s asked for specifically.

    And if this continues to happen then you have another ‘no decent apps’ scenerio.

    Another problem is speed, working at Nokia they are awfully slow to get something out the door. They have to get in there before the next iPhone and wave of NFC Androids.

    Let’s give it 6 months

    1. I had a major developer tell me the legal team at Microsoft was just too difficult to deal with. They ended up turning down Microsoft’s money (I’ve now heard this from several developers — this is something Elop has to fix and fix fast).

      1. Robert… Now Nokia is supposed to fix Microsoft’s LEGAL TEAM!?! Oh come on, they just got taken to the cleaners by these guys. Nokia will have a hard enough time splitting the company into two (feature phone and smart phone units) and keeping them going through the conversion process.

    2. “Right now Microsoft is going around to agencies offering to pay for apps (in full, partially or via promotion) for their big brand clients. However it doesn’t look like its working.”

      So Netflix, Kindle, Daily Motion, Flickr, facebook, Shazaam, ebay, Need for Speed, Assassins Creed, Monopoly, Fruit Ninja, Pocket God, Flight control means its not working?

      I would think in fact that their strategy has been very successful indeed.

        1. Given that in the end it comes down to the presence or absence of “decent apps” that is irrelevant. WP7 already has plenty of decent apps and games, with more coming fast.

          In fact anyone objective can see it is ramping up faster than Android, and at about the same pace as the iPhone did in its early days.

          1. Of course it’s relevant. And who do you think makes apps for most big brands? Agencies.

            If you can’t attract them to a platform or to sell it into their clients then ..

            Remember brands don’t rock up with a unlimited budget for mobile, they say we have ‘£X’ budget, here’s our brief. Very rarely will that budget cover more than 3 mobile platforms.

            If the other apps work out well then a brand looks at covering the rest. That’s the reality

    3. “Right now Microsoft is going around to agencies offering to pay for apps (in full, partially or via promotion) for their big brand clients. However it doesn’t look like its working.”

      So Netflix, Kindle, Daily Motion, Flickr, facebook, Shazaam, ebay, Need for Speed, Assassins Creed, Monopoly, Fruit Ninja, Pocket God, Flight control means its not working?

      I would think in fact that their strategy has been very successful indeed.

    4. What’s really sad is that WP7 has more apps in 6 months than iOS had in 2 years. Amazing how people are so greedy these days.

      1. iOS didn’t have apps in its first year.
        And WP7 has paid fully or partially for the development of almost all of its apps. It is still missing heaps of apps — many of which are simply restricted from existing such as Swype.

  29. I do admit Robert that you’re right about not having used a Windows Phone 7 running phone. That said, I am still saving up the money (still a broke college student) that would allow me to buy phones running the different platforms and see which one works for me. Of course I could always try getting review units and going about it that way.

    I do agree with you 100% on the article but I’m worried about a potential brain drain of the people who were working on Symbian, Meego and most of the Ovi services.

    1. Nokia already has lost a lot of those folks. Elop is gonna fix that problem another way: fire all the idiots inside Nokia and make the organization flatter, which will improve morale.

      1. Did you consider the numbers behind the deal?

        http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-11/nokia-joins-forces-with-microsoft-to-challenge-dominance-of-apple-google.html

        Some aspects of this partnership just do not add up, at least at the first glance.

        1. Microsoft shipped approximately 2 million wp7 licenses in its first quarter on the market and Nokia shipped 28.3 million smartphones in that period. What will be the desired proportions of Symbian vs Meego vs wp7 in 2011-2013?

        2. Nokia phones are comparatively expensive, that is in terms of pure horsepower it is already a better deal to buy e.g. Samsung. How much are they planning to charge for these wp7 phones? Currently n8 (and samsung galaxy s) is around 350 EUR, but components inside of n8 are quite far from the requirements of wp7. How are they planning to maintain reasonable margins, quality and competitive edge just selling hardware and leaving services to Microsoft and telcos? Is it a fight down to the bottom against Samsung and LG?

        3. They will fire a lot employees in Finland, today I heard on bloomberg about ‘thousands’ to be laid off, and it will definitely damage their image in Europe. How are they planning to fight the PR problem? Moving it jobs to the US will not be popular here :(

        P.S. I am not a nokia fan; I have e90, it is still working as a resonable textmessaging phone. Weighting price/performance ratio I decided that it is the last nokia product I ever bought :)

  30. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  31. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  32. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  33. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  34. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  35. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  36. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  37. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  38. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  39. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  40. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  41. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

    1. If the world goes HTML5 then Microsoft Nokia wins even more. Why? Their OS feels nicer to use than Android does and is very differentiated. They just need to fix the bugs in the browser. Those bug fixes are coming anyway.

        1. Sorry, Mona: browsing isn’t all that we’ll want our devices to do. It’s all about apps and HTML 5 isn’t it, according to the coolest developers who I’ve been visiting lately.

        2. Sorry, Mona: browsing isn’t all that we’ll want our devices to do. It’s all about apps and HTML 5 isn’t it, according to the coolest developers who I’ve been visiting lately.

          1. soon it will be to go from tablet to smartphone seamlessly- but what needs to be seamless? cal-contacts-email yes! games? maybe weather apps? nav apps? yes! but full blown productivity apps like Office? no, and if so that’s a segment of the market, not the broad consumer market

            @randygiusto and @ipsosvantis

          2. The “Cloud” will allow that today. Microsoft does it better than either iOS or Android at the moment too. MUCH better.

        3. Actually the browser is still one of the suckier things about WP7.. it is IE of course, and behind the curve even for microsoft..

          1. You are living in a dream world. Remember today’s date – let’s come back 1 yr from today and see how many HTML5 apps are actually there in the mobile market. Native apps feel better, are more quicker and could provide better seamless integration with a smartphone. People have been talking about HTML5 since the past 1.5 yrs but it hasn’t impacted app development in mobile app stores one bit.

          2. Mobile Safari is hobbled in some important ways (for purposes of my business anyway). It’s easy things like PDF… you can’t follow a link or interact with an ISO standard PDF in Apple’s own Open Standards touted browser. WTF Apple!? C’mon, you’re better than this.

            Tell me Robert… can you click on a link inside a PDF on WP7 or Android? Betcha can.

            (and I’m a fanboi…)

            Apple best get it together muy pronto or they’ll be lapped by others who are more feature rich and not so anal about the “user experience” or platform lock in. We’ve been here before and the other team won (by certain measures for a while). The reality distortion field is fading…

          3. The UX is better for native apps and the distribution is too.
            37Signals was highly criticized for choosing the a web only approach, but its just not as good.

            Plus there are lot of features you just can’t access in HTML right now.
            Camera and address book are 2 huge ones.

      1. The amount of fragmentation between Android versions continues to go on. The OS upgrade strategy vendor by vendor, device by device is horribly frustrating to any Android customer. Agree with you that MS has a good HTML 5 strategy.

        1. Well I don’t know abput developers, but for the normal customers it’s not even a topic. Fragmentation? Lol look at desktop windows, look at Linux. Does that stop anything? No. May be that devs need to do more work, but either you’re a normal non-techie customer, than you probably don’t even know about the “newest” release, or you are a tech-savvy user and you can root your phone in 1 min. and put on anything you like. I don’t see much of a deal here besides new fodder for tech-blogs bashing Android.

      2. Er, the browser on “cutting edge” WinPhone7 is… IE 7. Fixing bugs? They need to gut the thing and replace it with a real browser (i.e. something not called IE).

      3. Er, the browser on “cutting edge” WinPhone7 is… IE 7. Fixing bugs? They need to gut the thing and replace it with a real browser (i.e. something not called IE).

        1. Why should companies / developers keep investing in three platforms? The world would soon get used to non-native apps and that’s when mobile will go platform agnostic.

          1. Why should they? Revenue from selling apps thats why.

            App stores give you a central database where every user on that platform can get exposure to your product, a solid payment collection system so you don’t have to set up your own and access to a mobile ad system to generate more revenue.

          2. I agree with Andrew. I give Apple 30 cents for every $1 music I sell. But it’s a trade off, because the amount of traffic that the ecosystem gets is insane. Really. Selling the music independently though my site doesn’t get a fraction of what I get through iTunes. Sure, you can argue and say ‘well then drive more traffic to your site instead of iTunes’. But it’s not that easy. Being part of an ecosystem and marketplace is vital to a business. It’s why music festivals are incredibly successful for bands. It’s why Flea Markets and Malls are alot more successful than yard sales. It’s why McDonald’s build across the street from Burger Kings.

          3. First, they already have gone agnostic. It’s called Flash. Except on the iOS platform of course. WP7′s development tools are considered the best and easiest in the industry. Once the $$$ shows a little more growth, which it will with Nokia, the developers will start to drop the other two platforms like a rock and move to a much easier platform, with even better income ability.

    2. Mona I couldn’t disagree with you more. The industry made a fundamental shift over the past 3 years away from the importance of the Web on the handset to the importance of the app on the device, from the app store. Yes, the browser is there and Google keeps saying “write for the browser” but we aren;t there, nor will we be in at least 2 years. The cloud may be the dream but it’s not the reality in volume any time soon.

      1. It wasn’t the industry, it was Apple; specifically the iPhone.

        But with HP’s WebOS announcement, iPad and its predecessors (2 and 3 rumors all over news this week) and Rupert even venturing into the digital content realm, mobile is no longer going to be dictated by just phones.

        It is inefficient and costly to develop for iOS, Android, RIM, Windows/Nokia, WebOS and whatever other mobile OS.

        I’m not saying the change is going to come today or tomorrow but it’ll happen sooner than later.

        1. From what I remember, Apple initially encouraged developers to make web based apps since they didn’t have an app store and had locked down the device, not allowing 3rd party content to run at all.

          However pressure from developers, who wanted to develop applications stored and executed from the phone, encouraged Apple to make the app store.

          So it was the industry that demanded the shift, Apple simply catered for it the best.

          1. The common denominator is still the iPhone; regardless of what Apple initially or eventually decided.

            At the end of the day Apple initiated a creation of a need (mobility of web content) and a solution (iOS). But just like the Internet, mobile is democratizing and I firmly believe it’s up to the devs to dictate what the industry wants.

            Why should devs waste time learning various languages? Has anyone done the numbers to see if apps are more profitable than web apps? Why wouldn’t you want to consolidate efforts into one language? …rhetorical, btw.

          2. Devs don’t waste time learning various languages, they do it because that’s what the industry dictates, because that’s what the consumer wants.

            The industry is not dictated by anyone but consumers. There were plenty of smartphones available before the iPhone, however the general consumer wanted smartphone features that were accessible to the majority of users. Hence why the iPhone was successful. Apple didn’t initiate anything, they just catered to a need.

            People wanted an easier way to buy, download and use applications on their phone. The app store was created and people responded. Eventually, other manufacturers responded with their own versions of the same system.

            Don’t get me wrong, I would love it if their was a universal programming language to make it easier for developers to create their products and to have those products work on all devices. But the reality is just not the case, and developers need to cater for that.

            Consumers don’t adjust for developers, developers cater for the consumer.

          3. Are you serious? Would Apple would be where they are catering to consumers? Mobile was stagnant before them — most of the devices required hunting and pecking; carriers kept proprietary webs. i.e. Verizon’s first iPhone competitor Touch ring a bell? Holy hell that browsing experience was horrible, I can name a lot more devices too.

            It’s no just mobile though — look at all the innovators on the web. Facebook. Twitter. And as much as I hate to say it, Zynga.

            Would they be where they are today if consumers dictated their visions? Think about that for a sec.

          4. EVERY company develops their products/services based on what they believe will attract the consumer. Great companies will develop something that the customer didn’t think of beforehand, however it still means that company is catering for those consumers. Apple is all about creating products that make technology more accessible to the consumer.

            That’s just the way business works, creating something you hope consumers buy/use so that you make money.

          5. Not any more Mona. iOS devices will be outsold by Android this year, and both WP7 and Android will bury iOS in the next year.

          6. Apple was just the first kid on the block with a phone that people actually wanted to use. I’m sure if all 5 major touch OSes were around in 2006, we would see a lot more web apps and nobody would be making any money. Actually, when I think about that aspect, it seems rather unlikely haha. Anyway, going forward, developing an app for 5 OSes isn’t viable.

          7. That’s why developers are smart and cater for only the OSes they will profit on, They aren’t required to develop for every platform out there. Which is why the Nokia/Microsoft merger will bring more developers to WP7 as it increases the opportunity for profit.

          8. So in your view WP7 and WebOS have no future?

            Here’s how it plays out in your premise:
            2012: Android is “free” and brings smartphones to the low end around the world.
            2013: Android 60%, iOS 20%, BB 10%, WebOS 5%, WP7 5%
            2014: Developing for WebOS and WP7 is not profitable and support is dropped by developers.
            2015: No Apps = Nobody buys it
            2016: Android 65% iOS 25%, BB 10%

          9. Personally, I don’t see WebOS making up a huge market share. Which is a shame cause I do rate the OS higher than WP7 and at times Android. Their problem is timeframe; summer release for WebOS 3 devices and that is likely U.S only.

            This is why the Nokia deal is so crucial to WP7. Nokia have a worldwide reach and, despite recent declines in smartphone share, a great reputation with consumers. For the past 4 years I have worked in the mobile industry here in Australia at various levels (direct sales, business management etc) and Nokia is still a much admired brand here in general. Many people still have a fondness for Nokia but have moved onto other brands because Nokia’s in their current state can’t compete with the features of other platforms. These people wouldn’t have switched to another brand if Nokia had a viable alternative. Now they do.

            As far as the ‘No Apps = Nobody buys it’ prediction for 2015, who knows what the market will be like in 4 years. But as the market stands currently, consumers want apps. Maybe that will change and more web-based services will rise replacing the need for an app. However having an application on a mobile platforms (especially iOS) is such a huge marketing tool for companies that I can’t see that trend changing anytime soon.

          10. Indeed. The same fragmentation is happening all around the industry. Great for Devs but not in my opinion for consumers. Look at gaming, media extenders, smart phones, tablets and personal computers, the whole thing is a big filthy mess.

      2. It wasn’t the industry, it was Apple; specifically the iPhone.

        But with HP’s WebOS announcement, iPad and its predecessors (2 and 3 rumors all over news this week) and Rupert even venturing into the digital content realm, mobile is no longer going to be dictated by just phones.

        It is inefficient and costly to develop for iOS, Android, RIM, Windows/Nokia, WebOS and whatever other mobile OS.

        I’m not saying the change is going to come today or tomorrow but it’ll happen sooner than later.

    3. In game development both the open (i.e. PC) and closed (i.e. console) markets survive and thrive. I think both models will coexist on phones as well.

      As an aside, it cracks me up when people say Apple’s approval process is so awful – you should see what it’s like to get a game approved on consoles.

      1. HTML5 and JS are going to win for 80% of the non game apps out there. There are to many platforms to write proprietary code. 5 major mobile OS’s, each with their own tablet, then a bunch of TV platforms. HTML5 is going to win, but it might not be distributed the way you think. The app store model has clear benefits, so I think the HTML apps won’t be in the browser, they’ll be embedded in the apps with things like phonegap. You probably already have some running on your iPhone or android device.

  42. Robert, I adore you but you are wrong. The future of mobile development is to be platform agnostic. Developers are going to start creating webb apps relying on HTML5/CSS3 so they don’t have to put up with the BS that is the app stores.

    Do you know how much devs go through for Apple approvals?
    And for Android devs, I feel so bad for them the app store is a mess and they don’t get the exposure they need.

    I can go on but you get the idea, right?

  43. Many of the points are true. Are WP7 phones good, yes. Do they sell, no. Is Nokia putting WP7 on their devices going to sell more of it, maybe no.

    A couple of years back Sony was going in losses, their phone business was a big fail. Then they came out with Xperia X10 and other line of products which revived their industry.

    HTC started their first touch phone with Windows Phone 6 or 6.5, I had that phone, it sucked. They then came out with several Android phones and just steamrolled over Nokia and others.

    Samsung who? Well after Android people talk about their phones.

    LG? Optimus anyone? One of the best phones available today.

    I disagree with your thought that Android is better than WP7. Just because Microsoft put some panes it does not make it a better OS.

    While the Nokia-MSFT partnership might make sense right now, the bigger winner in the deal is of course MSFT and not Nokia.

    Also hardware and device wise, I haven’t seen Nokia produce a top-notch phone like N95. After that most of the phones look pretty frail, even the N8 hardware looks like it was done in a haste.

    Of course, we have our own opinions. We’ll see where this goes one year down the line.

    1. HTC made a TON of sales and money from their Windows Mobile 6 and 6.5 phones. Where do you get off lying like that?

      BTW, there are already $100 WP7 devices on the market today.

      You really need to get out from under that rock.

      1. Great, so I have been lying under a rock. Let’s see. How many phones today from HTC run Windows Mobile and WP7.

        Which Samsung phones are you talking about, those that ran Symbian? Which one’s did you even like.

        Which $100 WP7 device can you buy off the shelf without a contract.

        I have used Windows Phone 7. I guess you did not read my comment properly, I said it is good.

        At-least I live under a rock and not inside a cave.

    2. Fundamentally Nokia was out of the game. Robert is right that Apps/ecosystem is key to the hardware sales. Nokia has by FAR the best supply chain in the mobile phone industry. By having them leverage their strengths and hope that Microsoft dev community and bottomless ability to invest will allow to provide a true alternative to Android. Mid-term, Apple is not the competition. Closed systems always end up (relatively) failing.

  44. Robert, I don’t always agree with you, but I am 100% with you on this one and I AM a Nokia fan. I am also a huge WP7 fan and LOVE the OS too. I don’t know what Nokia fans wanted Nokia to do, stick with a platform that has been on a downward trend for the last couple of years? WP7 brings services and a slick OS and combined with Ovi Maps and Nokia hardware we will have an extremely compelling product lineup.

      1. You go ahead wardmundy, with you there it’s plenty crowded enough along with all the other negative idiots. I dare you to use WP7 for a month. I dare you.

        1. WP7 is a in many ways a step ahead of both iOS and Android in the modernity of the UI thinking underlying it. It’s smoove, and surprisingly well conceived. MS has employed and funded some people in the last several years who are serious design people. Happy to see it.

          But:

          iDevice –> iTunes

          and

          WP7 device –> Zune

          The big part of the new smartphone market will be people for whom their new cheap smartphone is the only computer they have. Rural China and much of SE Asia, most of Africa, lots of S. America, etc.

          Android wins in those situations going away.

        2. WP7 is a in many ways a step ahead of both iOS and Android in the modernity of the UI thinking underlying it. It’s smoove, and surprisingly well conceived. MS has employed and funded some people in the last several years who are serious design people. Happy to see it.

          But:

          iDevice –> iTunes

          and

          WP7 device –> Zune

          The big part of the new smartphone market will be people for whom their new cheap smartphone is the only computer they have. Rural China and much of SE Asia, most of Africa, lots of S. America, etc.

          Android wins in those situations going away.

    1. The 3 words that sum up perfectly this Scobleizer post. First time I have ever agreed 100% w/ Scoble. Seems that the best opinion pieces are delivered from fanboys on stories that have nothing to do w/ their fanboy-company. That’s annoying.

    2. I was a Nokia die-hard before the i-Phone altered the landscape forever. It’s easy to dismiss this as another blunder in a series of blunders but I think the long term outcome of this marriage would be interesting to follow and watch. Two former giants going against the two that are currently dominating. Best of luck to all.
      cheers,
      Dennis

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