You are an idiot if you sell your Apple stock tomorrow

It’s too late to sell your Apple stock. If you sold it today, you are a genius. But tomorrow? You’ll be the biggest loser.

Why? Apple has the best team, the best distribution, the best supply chain, the best management in the business.

Everyone, from Palm to Microsoft to Google wants to be like Apple.

Hint: they can’t.

Hint: they won’t (although Palm got very close by hiring a ton of key iPhone execs and developers and PR people away from Apple).

Apple is more than just Steve Jobs. Now you’re about to find out just how much more.

If you sell your stock you’re an idiot. Yes, it’ll be down big in the morning. Yes, the news is sort of shocking. But Apple is fine and we’ll all buy the next big thing that they do no matter who brings it to us. Steve Jobs has built a killer team that everyone wants a piece of and that culture will be around for years. I met many of them in China and they are regarded among supply chain guys there as the best in the business (and the most demanding). That won’t go away because Steve isn’t at the helm anymore.

Oh, and to Steve Jobs: I wish you and your family all the best. This is a tough business to be in front of all the time and you’ve set the standard very high for your team. Now stand back and watch them shine.

Comments

  1. Well said,
    I can’t agree with you more on this topic. It’s not all about one person it’s about a team of people that make a company like Apple really stand out. If it was about just one person Apple would have died a long time ago.

    Surprise! Steve Jobs deserves to be out of the spotlight of Apple, and hey the best part is he’ll still be getting paid about the same. At least I hope he would.

    Thanks for the heads up.

    Apple ROCKS!

    Sincerely,
    Mac Junkie
    Joshua Needham
    Follow me on Twitter @iPhoneDevForum

  2. Well said,
    I can’t agree with you more on this topic. It’s not all about one person it’s about a team of people that make a company like Apple really stand out. If it was about just one person Apple would have died a long time ago.

    Surprise! Steve Jobs deserves to be out of the spotlight of Apple, and hey the best part is he’ll still be getting paid about the same. At least I hope he would.

    Thanks for the heads up.

    Apple ROCKS!

    Sincerely,
    Mac Junkie
    Joshua Needham
    Follow me on Twitter @iPhoneDevForum

  3. I agree whole heartedly with your statement that Apple is a machine that is much larger than Steve Jobs. People who have never worked in a product development environment don’t realize what a massively orchestrated effort it is to bring a new device to market. It takes more than the vision of one man, no matter how inspiring he is. It takes many smart people thriving in a culture that supports them and allows them to achieve great things. That will be Mr. Jobs’ legacy, and it will live on long after he is gone.

  4. I agree whole heartedly with your statement that Apple is a machine that is much larger than Steve Jobs. People who have never worked in a product development environment don’t realize what a massively orchestrated effort it is to bring a new device to market. It takes more than the vision of one man, no matter how inspiring he is. It takes many smart people thriving in a culture that supports them and allows them to achieve great things. That will be Mr. Jobs’ legacy, and it will live on long after he is gone.

  5. Couldn’t agree more. I’m not selling my three shares :>)

    Seriously, as a MAC convert, I know firsthand how great the products are. That’s not about one man. He built a great company and that’s not going away

  6. Couldn’t agree more. I’m not selling my three shares :>)

    Seriously, as a MAC convert, I know firsthand how great the products are. That’s not about one man. He built a great company and that’s not going away

  7. Well, it was Jobs who made Apple flourish in the beginning and it was him who rescue Apple from obsolescence with his return. With his absence now we’ll find out if the team is as good as people say. Best of luck for him.

  8. Well, it was Jobs who made Apple flourish in the beginning and it was him who rescue Apple from obsolescence with his return. With his absence now we’ll find out if the team is as good as people say. Best of luck for him.

  9. Firstly i have to echo your best wishes to Steve Jobs and his family.

    I have been a fan of Apple since the mid 80’s and i’d agree with what you are saying…but it kind of depends on why you have apple stock, if you are a big Apple / tech fan and you can afford to stick it out then great. If your in it for the money then the the risks just took a major upturn.

    I’m afraid that when Apple are good they are very very good, but when they are bad they are shocking. And their supply chain is enviable but it also has issues, they’ve opened stores that compete with their old supply chain, i’m constantly waiting for software to ship to registered resellers (especially os) they charge for many products like mobile and ilife where competitors like microsoft wouldn’t, i just waited 2 months and sent several complain’t letters before getting my iphone via o2. And i’ve even had long running apple resellers tearing there hair out in rage over issues like when they cancelled a load of orders claiming a manufacturing plant lost having been hit by an earth quake (until someone got photo’s of an untouched plant), or that famous quote when customers were being mugged for ipods and when asked if they’d make the headphones in black so they didn’t stand out they issued a statement saying “better to have style and get mugged than not have style”

    But having said all that, i hope that they have learned from their past mistakes and will continue to wow us long into the future, doing what they do best, making machines that we love to love.

  10. very well said. apple doesn’t appear to be positioned to fail in the face of steve job’s departure, be it permanent or not. they’ve built a castle there, and they’ll continue to innovate like they have against previous speculation.

    the jobs story is one that the talking heads love because it draws headlines and it puts a face on a company.

  11. very well said. apple doesn’t appear to be positioned to fail in the face of steve job’s departure, be it permanent or not. they’ve built a castle there, and they’ll continue to innovate like they have against previous speculation.

    the jobs story is one that the talking heads love because it draws headlines and it puts a face on a company.

  12. Firstly i have to echo your best wishes to Steve Jobs and his family.

    I have been a fan of Apple since the mid 80’s and i’d agree with what you are saying…but it kind of depends on why you have apple stock, if you are a big Apple / tech fan and you can afford to stick it out then great. If your in it for the money then the the risks just took a major upturn.

    I’m afraid that when Apple are good they are very very good, but when they are bad they are shocking. And their supply chain is enviable but it also has issues, they’ve opened stores that compete with their old supply chain, i’m constantly waiting for software to ship to registered resellers (especially os) they charge for many products like mobile and ilife where competitors like microsoft wouldn’t, i just waited 2 months and sent several complain’t letters before getting my iphone via o2. And i’ve even had long running apple resellers tearing there hair out in rage over issues like when they cancelled a load of orders claiming a manufacturing plant lost having been hit by an earth quake (until someone got photo’s of an untouched plant), or that famous quote when customers were being mugged for ipods and when asked if they’d make the headphones in black so they didn’t stand out they issued a statement saying “better to have style and get mugged than not have style”

    But having said all that, i hope that they have learned from their past mistakes and will continue to wow us long into the future, doing what they do best, making machines that we love to love.

  13. Apple produces magic. We all look for the sparkle of something truly extraordinary any time Apple launches a product. If I were in Apple’s shoes, I’d hold back a product announcement or two from MacWorld in order to reassure shareholders shortly after an announcement like this.
    We can be sure that this is not an announcement that has been made hastily.

    As an avid Steve Jobs and Apple fan, I’m sure we will have at least a few goodies to look forward to in the next month.

    Get well Steve.

  14. Apple produces magic. We all look for the sparkle of something truly extraordinary any time Apple launches a product. If I were in Apple’s shoes, I’d hold back a product announcement or two from MacWorld in order to reassure shareholders shortly after an announcement like this.
    We can be sure that this is not an announcement that has been made hastily.

    As an avid Steve Jobs and Apple fan, I’m sure we will have at least a few goodies to look forward to in the next month.

    Get well Steve.

  15. True but then, you’re an idiot if you sell on any bad news since by the time you know, the loss has happened. Sell on bad news before it happens.

    Anyway, if you believe Apple has good fundamentals even if Job-less, then you should buy to, as Scoble says, take advantage of idiots.

  16. True but then, you’re an idiot if you sell on any bad news since by the time you know, the loss has happened. Sell on bad news before it happens.

    Anyway, if you believe Apple has good fundamentals even if Job-less, then you should buy to, as Scoble says, take advantage of idiots.

  17. Whatever. You thought tablet PCs and Second Life were going to take over the world.

    My only question is if you’re in the tank for Apple because you own stock in the company, or if you’re just one of the kool-ade brigade. ‘Cause you sure seem desperate lately to pump Apple stock up.

    I mean, it’s pretty clear that your whole tale of Steve Jobs’s yogurt vendor saying that he looks to be in perfect health was a steaming load of bullcrap, right?

  18. Whatever. You thought tablet PCs and Second Life were going to take over the world.

    My only question is if you’re in the tank for Apple because you own stock in the company, or if you’re just one of the kool-ade brigade. ‘Cause you sure seem desperate lately to pump Apple stock up.

    I mean, it’s pretty clear that your whole tale of Steve Jobs’s yogurt vendor saying that he looks to be in perfect health was a steaming load of bullcrap, right?

  19. Funny Robert, that’s not what you were saying on the BlogBus to CES last year. If I remember correctly, you said that Jobs was Apple, and that Apple didn’t have a succession plan in place. What changed in the last year?

  20. Funny Robert, that’s not what you were saying on the BlogBus to CES last year. If I remember correctly, you said that Jobs was Apple, and that Apple didn’t have a succession plan in place. What changed in the last year?

  21. Well, I’m one of those who will be on for the AAPL ride… But plain and simple – they need to have an event where someone other than Jobs hits it out of the park. Maybe iPhone 3.0. Maybe something else. But until then – any actual facts about AAPL will be drowned out in the sea of “But what about Steve” emotion.

    But if the next product announcement is a dud – the overall health of the company won’t matter to the traders, even if the company performs well fundamentally.

    In this market, emotion seems to be everything.

  22. Well, I’m one of those who will be on for the AAPL ride… But plain and simple – they need to have an event where someone other than Jobs hits it out of the park. Maybe iPhone 3.0. Maybe something else. But until then – any actual facts about AAPL will be drowned out in the sea of “But what about Steve” emotion.

    But if the next product announcement is a dud – the overall health of the company won’t matter to the traders, even if the company performs well fundamentally.

    In this market, emotion seems to be everything.

  23. Robert: what changed? I went to China and saw how important the supply chain is to Apple’s success. Also, how important the stores are to its success. That’s a huge change in a year. Plus, Apple has been putting, successfully, other faces out in front of the company. That’s a huge change in a year too.

  24. Robert: what changed? I went to China and saw how important the supply chain is to Apple’s success. Also, how important the stores are to its success. That’s a huge change in a year. Plus, Apple has been putting, successfully, other faces out in front of the company. That’s a huge change in a year too.

  25. Robert McLaws, I guess Apple has a succession plan in place now. :)

    Robert Scoble, it appears that Louis Gray has taken a different view of Jobs’ importance to Apple’s long-term prospects. However, it helps to remember that Apple survived without Jobs for several years, and in the process became not only a viable firm (Macintosh II, etc.) but also introduced some interesting products (HyperCard). I don’t know the personalities in Apple, but I’m sure that even if Jobs goes off to India rather than staying at Apple, the company will survive and still do great things…maybe not insanely great, but definitely great.

  26. Robert McLaws, I guess Apple has a succession plan in place now. :)

    Robert Scoble, it appears that Louis Gray has taken a different view of Jobs’ importance to Apple’s long-term prospects. However, it helps to remember that Apple survived without Jobs for several years, and in the process became not only a viable firm (Macintosh II, etc.) but also introduced some interesting products (HyperCard). I don’t know the personalities in Apple, but I’m sure that even if Jobs goes off to India rather than staying at Apple, the company will survive and still do great things…maybe not insanely great, but definitely great.

  27. Ontario, I think it’s very possible to agree with Robert and with me here. Apple has a history of innovation, which will continue with or without jobs. They have a sharp management team and have been pushing the Valley around since he came back. But I think we as consumers and Apple as a company will be much better off with Steve than without.

  28. Ontario, I think it’s very possible to agree with Robert and with me here. Apple has a history of innovation, which will continue with or without jobs. They have a sharp management team and have been pushing the Valley around since he came back. But I think we as consumers and Apple as a company will be much better off with Steve than without.

  29. I don’t know if I agree entirely….. sure, you are drinking the apple Koolaid, must like the msft Koolaid from earlier. Apple makes great products.

    1) It depends on what guidance they supply in the next earnings call. I also suspect they’ll be bombarded with questions about Steve’s health that can’t be dodged this time around….

    As soon as the CEO takes a leave, the board must supply details.

    2) Retail is being punished. People are losing their jobs. Food comes before iPods. Computer sales are trending downward on the consumer side. I don’t know how Apple escapes this.

  30. I don’t know if I agree entirely….. sure, you are drinking the apple Koolaid, must like the msft Koolaid from earlier. Apple makes great products.

    1) It depends on what guidance they supply in the next earnings call. I also suspect they’ll be bombarded with questions about Steve’s health that can’t be dodged this time around….

    As soon as the CEO takes a leave, the board must supply details.

    2) Retail is being punished. People are losing their jobs. Food comes before iPods. Computer sales are trending downward on the consumer side. I don’t know how Apple escapes this.

  31. With cash reserves of $25 billion, and 33% gross margins, Apple may tank tomorrow with news of Job’s health, but will roar back! How many companies do you know of that are sitting so comfortably in this economy?
    I will be picking up more shares on dips!

  32. With cash reserves of $25 billion, and 33% gross margins, Apple may tank tomorrow with news of Job’s health, but will roar back! How many companies do you know of that are sitting so comfortably in this economy?
    I will be picking up more shares on dips!

  33. I agree with the best hype. Apple makes good solid products with a lot of glam to them. I don’t know if I can say much more than that.

    Don’t buy the hype!

    I am sure that they will fine, but they need to do more than ride the gravy train that is their iPhone and iLife. The next two or three years will be telling. Also, since Macs are more of a luxury item, I expect that they will take a hit.

    The true test is if these products continue to do well in a sagging economy.

  34. I agree with the best hype. Apple makes good solid products with a lot of glam to them. I don’t know if I can say much more than that.

    Don’t buy the hype!

    I am sure that they will fine, but they need to do more than ride the gravy train that is their iPhone and iLife. The next two or three years will be telling. Also, since Macs are more of a luxury item, I expect that they will take a hit.

    The true test is if these products continue to do well in a sagging economy.

  35. I agree that they should be fine but there are questions… After all this is a company that was in great shape in the past and managed to throw it all away quickly due to bad management. If Jobs has to end up leaving the company good management can keep it going but if they pick wrong they won’t be immune to being destroyed regardless of their standing today.

  36. I agree that they should be fine but there are questions… After all this is a company that was in great shape in the past and managed to throw it all away quickly due to bad management. If Jobs has to end up leaving the company good management can keep it going but if they pick wrong they won’t be immune to being destroyed regardless of their standing today.

  37. Zach: I do not own AAPL stock. I used to back in 2003 but I sold it back then and haven’t owned it since. Fast Company prohibits me from owning stock in any company I cover, too, and I’ve always disclosed when I have financial interests in or am getting compensated by companies I write in.

  38. Zach: I do not own AAPL stock. I used to back in 2003 but I sold it back then and haven’t owned it since. Fast Company prohibits me from owning stock in any company I cover, too, and I’ve always disclosed when I have financial interests in or am getting compensated by companies I write in.

  39. I saw a couple comments asking why you are a genius if you sell your Apple stock today. In simplified terms, let’s say you own one share of Apple stock, trading at $85 as it closed today. Tomorrow, when the markets open and this news has propagated, stocks will fall. Let’s say to $50. You buy back your one share at $50.

    You still have one share in the end, but you just made $35.

  40. I saw a couple comments asking why you are a genius if you sell your Apple stock today. In simplified terms, let’s say you own one share of Apple stock, trading at $85 as it closed today. Tomorrow, when the markets open and this news has propagated, stocks will fall. Let’s say to $50. You buy back your one share at $50.

    You still have one share in the end, but you just made $35.

  41. It’s not just about Steve Jobs, what does Apple have in the pipeline to keep up momentum in 2009? iPhone and Mac product lines will be on cruise control for the next couple of years, adding incremental upgrades and polishing the software.

    Now that music is DRM free, recreating the music business is basically done. Unless they create a Pandora-like subscription or free service, there’s little left to do to iPod except try to hang onto market share. Which is probably why Tony Fadell quit.

    The Mac line is doing well, but they hardly need Jobs around for that. Build a pretty box around Intel & nVidia’s latest once a year and shine up the OS once in a while. The switchers are coming from word of mouth, not feature upgrades. Maybe they can ship the rumored netbook or Kindle competitor – perhaps leading the category and perhaps not.

    The only thing left is the rumored Mac Mini as set-top. The TV space definitely needs that box, but unless Apple can crack the content suppliers as they did with record labels, it’ll be a weak product. There’s a lot more money in the video business than audio, and the gatekeepers have been less willing to give Apple a piece, much less dominant control. Netflix, Hulu, and Youtube support (all in HD) would be the bare minimum. Really it needs a subscription plan for 1080p movie rentals that cache in the background. If they build it, they need Jobs to negotiate with studios and also introduce it.

  42. It’s not just about Steve Jobs, what does Apple have in the pipeline to keep up momentum in 2009? iPhone and Mac product lines will be on cruise control for the next couple of years, adding incremental upgrades and polishing the software.

    Now that music is DRM free, recreating the music business is basically done. Unless they create a Pandora-like subscription or free service, there’s little left to do to iPod except try to hang onto market share. Which is probably why Tony Fadell quit.

    The Mac line is doing well, but they hardly need Jobs around for that. Build a pretty box around Intel & nVidia’s latest once a year and shine up the OS once in a while. The switchers are coming from word of mouth, not feature upgrades. Maybe they can ship the rumored netbook or Kindle competitor – perhaps leading the category and perhaps not.

    The only thing left is the rumored Mac Mini as set-top. The TV space definitely needs that box, but unless Apple can crack the content suppliers as they did with record labels, it’ll be a weak product. There’s a lot more money in the video business than audio, and the gatekeepers have been less willing to give Apple a piece, much less dominant control. Netflix, Hulu, and Youtube support (all in HD) would be the bare minimum. Really it needs a subscription plan for 1080p movie rentals that cache in the background. If they build it, they need Jobs to negotiate with studios and also introduce it.

  43. Robert- One of your best blog comments to date. You have nailed it.

    We all hope that Steve will recover and be OK.

    Apple’s stock has been hammered again and again in this market. The company keeps churning out great products and great results but the stock takes a hit anyway. This is one more example.

    Steve Jobs is a great CEO and one of the reasons for that is his great team building. He has some superstars in place.

    Tim Cook is outstanding. Steve Ballmer could only hope to one day carry Tim’s briefcase for him.

  44. Robert- One of your best blog comments to date. You have nailed it.

    We all hope that Steve will recover and be OK.

    Apple’s stock has been hammered again and again in this market. The company keeps churning out great products and great results but the stock takes a hit anyway. This is one more example.

    Steve Jobs is a great CEO and one of the reasons for that is his great team building. He has some superstars in place.

    Tim Cook is outstanding. Steve Ballmer could only hope to one day carry Tim’s briefcase for him.

  45. […] You Are an Idiot If You Sell Your Apple Stock Tomorrow Note: not journalism related, but worth your time. Possibly related posts: (automatically generated)Links for Jan. 12, 2008P*resentation: New Information Technologies in JournalismBlogs I Like: Newschallengeblog.org or Citizen Journalism 2.0ONLINE AWARDS: Early 2007 SND.ies honor digital “voyages” […]

  46. Robert,

    I too wish Steve and his family the best. I think your strength assessment is accurate. I agree that Palm, Microsoft and Google want to emulate Apple in some ways. I disagree that they can’t. It may be more difficult. In other words, I get your main points.

    My bigger issue is calling people who sell tomorrow “idiots”. It sounds like you’re assuming they are all selling because of today’s announcement. People sell stocks for any number of reasons. There are people who just looks at technical factors of a stock and may not even realize the news events. In some ways, it reminds me a bit of people who get upset when founders sell stock, but don’t realize they need to diversify their assets as well. In the end, the markets will absorb the news and move on.

  47. Robert,

    I too wish Steve and his family the best. I think your strength assessment is accurate. I agree that Palm, Microsoft and Google want to emulate Apple in some ways. I disagree that they can’t. It may be more difficult. In other words, I get your main points.

    My bigger issue is calling people who sell tomorrow “idiots”. It sounds like you’re assuming they are all selling because of today’s announcement. People sell stocks for any number of reasons. There are people who just looks at technical factors of a stock and may not even realize the news events. In some ways, it reminds me a bit of people who get upset when founders sell stock, but don’t realize they need to diversify their assets as well. In the end, the markets will absorb the news and move on.

  48. Scoble, the thing is, history is what’s pushing the stock down. History is going to repeat itself, because when Steve left last time, the company fell apart. It’s about the top down mentality, not the team. The team will leave when the top down is no longer around.

  49. Scoble, the thing is, history is what’s pushing the stock down. History is going to repeat itself, because when Steve left last time, the company fell apart. It’s about the top down mentality, not the team. The team will leave when the top down is no longer around.

  50. i am sure you are right robert that there is a great team assembled who can keep the magic alive, but it’s really hard to replace the intensity that founder brings. look at Microsoft without Gates at the helm, for example.

    but what really bothers me is the misinformation that Jobs and Apple have been supplying the market about his health.

    i sold all my apple a week ago, and blogged about that decision before i executed the trade. this is what I said:

    “The story on Apple is Jobs and his health. There were eight of us in all at dinner and not one of us, I mean nobody, that believed Jobs is healthy. And none of us believed the Apple’s PR team is being straight on this issue. As good as the company is, I just can’t own a stock when I don’t believe the company is being straight with investors. So I am selling my entire position in Apple this morning including the stock I bought earlier than last fall.”

    trust is my single most important factor in evaluating a company and its management team and i can’t trust Jobs and the Apple PR/IR team anymore.

    i can understand why Jobs feels his health is nobody’s business and i feel terribly for him, but it doesn’t change my view that he’s broken the trust of his shareholders and that’s a very bad thing to do.

    fred

  51. i am sure you are right robert that there is a great team assembled who can keep the magic alive, but it’s really hard to replace the intensity that founder brings. look at Microsoft without Gates at the helm, for example.

    but what really bothers me is the misinformation that Jobs and Apple have been supplying the market about his health.

    i sold all my apple a week ago, and blogged about that decision before i executed the trade. this is what I said:

    “The story on Apple is Jobs and his health. There were eight of us in all at dinner and not one of us, I mean nobody, that believed Jobs is healthy. And none of us believed the Apple’s PR team is being straight on this issue. As good as the company is, I just can’t own a stock when I don’t believe the company is being straight with investors. So I am selling my entire position in Apple this morning including the stock I bought earlier than last fall.”

    trust is my single most important factor in evaluating a company and its management team and i can’t trust Jobs and the Apple PR/IR team anymore.

    i can understand why Jobs feels his health is nobody’s business and i feel terribly for him, but it doesn’t change my view that he’s broken the trust of his shareholders and that’s a very bad thing to do.

    fred

  52. BTW Robert we have an overall recession with the macro environment really difficult. I dont think you should be offering any stock advice given that you and most others know so little about financial markets anyway.

    I sold my Apple stock a while ago (along with all others) to be in 60% cash.

  53. BTW Robert we have an overall recession with the macro environment really difficult. I dont think you should be offering any stock advice given that you and most others know so little about financial markets anyway.

    I sold my Apple stock a while ago (along with all others) to be in 60% cash.

  54. Everybody seems to forget that there’s another Steve Jobs at Apple, Jonathan Ive. He worked with Job to design the iMacs, the iPod and the iPhone. If you’re looking for someone with Jobs’ design savvy minus the attitude, look no further.

    Now if Jobs made a succession plan naming Ives to his post… but that’s not his style.

  55. Everybody seems to forget that there’s another Steve Jobs at Apple, Jonathan Ive. He worked with Job to design the iMacs, the iPod and the iPhone. If you’re looking for someone with Jobs’ design savvy minus the attitude, look no further.

    Now if Jobs made a succession plan naming Ives to his post… but that’s not his style.

  56. In his book “Good to Great” Jack Collins’ research found that many companies could be great performers when they had a good CEO but crumbled when the CEO left. He found that great companies had great CEOs who didn’t build a house of cards which tumbled as the CEO left. Steve Jobs has helped make Apple a great company and it will endure.

  57. In his book “Good to Great” Jack Collins’ research found that many companies could be great performers when they had a good CEO but crumbled when the CEO left. He found that great companies had great CEOs who didn’t build a house of cards which tumbled as the CEO left. Steve Jobs has helped make Apple a great company and it will endure.

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  59. I think that Jobs, in the early days, did what the organisation is doing itself NOW. He was the “consumer”. If he didnt get it, if he wouldnt buy it – then start again.

    This consumer centric approach has always been pivotal. Many organisations have teams that try and emulate this – but in most cases the company has evolved out of a technology driven environment and so develops a technology push culture.

    Consumers do not want technology, they want nice solutions.

    Example would be mobile internet – who cares if its WiFi, 3g, 2g, LTE, WiMAx….is it quick and does it just WORK? If so – job done.

  60. I think that Jobs, in the early days, did what the organisation is doing itself NOW. He was the “consumer”. If he didnt get it, if he wouldnt buy it – then start again.

    This consumer centric approach has always been pivotal. Many organisations have teams that try and emulate this – but in most cases the company has evolved out of a technology driven environment and so develops a technology push culture.

    Consumers do not want technology, they want nice solutions.

    Example would be mobile internet – who cares if its WiFi, 3g, 2g, LTE, WiMAx….is it quick and does it just WORK? If so – job done.

  61. I agree with the stock selling part of your post.

    But I don’t think anyone can deny that Steve Jobs was Apple’s Justin Timberlake in that he “brought its sexy back”. And by far, this sexy perception of Apple has propagated their success as much as (or more than) the quality of the products themselves. For instance, LG makes several touchscreen phones that in terms of capabilities are comparable and sometimes surpass Apple’s iPhone. However, they haven’t been able to even put a dent in iPhone’s march forward.

    Steve Jobs did not create these products all on his own – It’s the team he put together that did it. But he was the one that made Apple mainstream and cool and if they lose him, I think they will feel the effects for quite some time.

  62. I agree with the stock selling part of your post.

    But I don’t think anyone can deny that Steve Jobs was Apple’s Justin Timberlake in that he “brought its sexy back”. And by far, this sexy perception of Apple has propagated their success as much as (or more than) the quality of the products themselves. For instance, LG makes several touchscreen phones that in terms of capabilities are comparable and sometimes surpass Apple’s iPhone. However, they haven’t been able to even put a dent in iPhone’s march forward.

    Steve Jobs did not create these products all on his own – It’s the team he put together that did it. But he was the one that made Apple mainstream and cool and if they lose him, I think they will feel the effects for quite some time.

  63. […] Robert Scoble – Scobleizer “It’s too late to sell your Apple stock. If you sold it [Wednesday], you are a genius. But [Thursday]? You’ll be the biggest loser. Why? Apple has the best team, the best distribution, the best supply chain, the best management in the business. Everyone, from Palm to Microsoft to Google, wants to be like Apple. Hint: They can’t.” […]

  64. Exactly!
    I think steve has done more than anything anyone could have done for any company. And there would be some time that he has to depart, but thanks to the wonderful team that he has built, apple was going bankrupt because the company had lost it’s vision. Now it’s back on track.
    I think people should support this iCon rather than suing around.
    All the best steve!

  65. Exactly!
    I think steve has done more than anything anyone could have done for any company. And there would be some time that he has to depart, but thanks to the wonderful team that he has built, apple was going bankrupt because the company had lost it’s vision. Now it’s back on track.
    I think people should support this iCon rather than suing around.
    All the best steve!

  66. Scarhawk,

    “what does Apple have in the pipeline to keep up momentum in 2009?”

    There’s plenty in the pipeline. It’s just not clear what will ever see the light of day. Apple is currently the largest shipper of Multi-Touch products (iPhone, iPod Touch, MacBook Pro [w/multi-touch trackpads], etc.) Apple purchased FingerWorks a few years ago to enter the Multi-Touch arena and never looked back.

    Not only is Apple is poised to start offering far more Multi-Touch products, but they are already far ahead of the competition when it comes to expertise in Multi-Touch. So, I would be prepared to consider new Multi-Touch products a main component of their pipeline down the road.

    Consider that, along with the fact that OS X is already an ideal interface for Multi-Touch interaction (The Dock, Spring-loaded folders, Exposé, Genie effects, Core Animation, resolution independent applications [soon]) and you can see that Apple has slowly, but surely, been preparing their OS for Multi-Touch for a loooong time. They aren’t rushing into Multi-Touch like some companies are…

  67. Scarhawk,

    “what does Apple have in the pipeline to keep up momentum in 2009?”

    There’s plenty in the pipeline. It’s just not clear what will ever see the light of day. Apple is currently the largest shipper of Multi-Touch products (iPhone, iPod Touch, MacBook Pro [w/multi-touch trackpads], etc.) Apple purchased FingerWorks a few years ago to enter the Multi-Touch arena and never looked back.

    Not only is Apple is poised to start offering far more Multi-Touch products, but they are already far ahead of the competition when it comes to expertise in Multi-Touch. So, I would be prepared to consider new Multi-Touch products a main component of their pipeline down the road.

    Consider that, along with the fact that OS X is already an ideal interface for Multi-Touch interaction (The Dock, Spring-loaded folders, Exposé, Genie effects, Core Animation, resolution independent applications [soon]) and you can see that Apple has slowly, but surely, been preparing their OS for Multi-Touch for a loooong time. They aren’t rushing into Multi-Touch like some companies are…

  68. […] January 15, 2009 at 3:22 pm (The Interns) As AT&T is the exclusive carrier of the iphone, us BBDO-ers have good cause to feel Jobs’ departure a little closer to home. As a lover of all things Apple, I have confidence in the brand itself and am under the belief that Apple is a well-oiled machine that will conitune to keep pumping even in the physical absence of the king. This blogger put it well…Have no fear . […]

  69. It’s amusing and sad to see the comments about “hype” and “fashion” , as if solid engineeering and a second to none user experience was just a fad. The iPod has not cruched all competitiors because of fashion, or hype: it crushed the competition because it’s the best of class media player, has a mature ecosystem supporting it, and Apple has made digital downloads into a viable business.

    The Apple detractors will always have their whining, they’ve been whining for 25 years. But now that Apple is back on top, making products that everyone wants, the whining has turned from “don’t buy Macs/Apple because nobody uses them” , to “don’t buy Macs/Apple because everybody uses them”.

    When Microsoft asserted it monopoly and abused it to prevent competition, Apple supporters were some kind of freaks and cultists for not abandonding Apple and getting on board with Microsoft. And again, now that Apple is on top of their game, and making products that are the epitome of design and function in their market, we aren’t supposed to buy Apple products because, why? Because they are everywhere, and the hapless competition is somehow the underdog?

    Pathetic.

  70. It’s amusing and sad to see the comments about “hype” and “fashion” , as if solid engineeering and a second to none user experience was just a fad. The iPod has not cruched all competitiors because of fashion, or hype: it crushed the competition because it’s the best of class media player, has a mature ecosystem supporting it, and Apple has made digital downloads into a viable business.

    The Apple detractors will always have their whining, they’ve been whining for 25 years. But now that Apple is back on top, making products that everyone wants, the whining has turned from “don’t buy Macs/Apple because nobody uses them” , to “don’t buy Macs/Apple because everybody uses them”.

    When Microsoft asserted it monopoly and abused it to prevent competition, Apple supporters were some kind of freaks and cultists for not abandonding Apple and getting on board with Microsoft. And again, now that Apple is on top of their game, and making products that are the epitome of design and function in their market, we aren’t supposed to buy Apple products because, why? Because they are everywhere, and the hapless competition is somehow the underdog?

    Pathetic.

  71. All the best Steve. We want you to be safe and healthy. If you weren’t alive tomorrow, I would shed tears – for you and your genius. You are my ideal CEO. Apple is my ideal company. Apple has got your gene to survive. The team is ‘your’ men. They are the true corporate gentlemen to let you got and take wholesome rest. Rest assured, there are people like me who love you from the bottom of my heart. May God give you a very long life. Our best wishes are there with you. Take Care.

  72. All the best Steve. We want you to be safe and healthy. If you weren’t alive tomorrow, I would shed tears – for you and your genius. You are my ideal CEO. Apple is my ideal company. Apple has got your gene to survive. The team is ‘your’ men. They are the true corporate gentlemen to let you got and take wholesome rest. Rest assured, there are people like me who love you from the bottom of my heart. May God give you a very long life. Our best wishes are there with you. Take Care.

  73. denying that apple’s success is partially due to fashion and design is rather silly, no?

    looks are important. form is important. such “shallow” traits are a huge part of consumer electronics. most people don’t buy, for example, an mp3 player because they need various functions, but because it appeals to them as part of a larger package on several levels. it’s no longer the social marker (i.e. “i have money”) that it was earlier this decade, but that doesn’t mean that appearance has stopped being important.

    but more to the point of the post, solipsism as an investment strategy is dumb, for a number of reasons. whether you like or don’t like a company’s products is not a good reason to invest* in them. particularly if you’re emotionally involved in their success or failure – fogging up the glasses will never help anyone see clearly. that goes doubly when you have a personality-driven company, at least as far as its public image goes.

    i love me cowon’s audio players** but would never invest in the company. and not just because i’m not involved in the south korean stock market and live in america, but because i simply cannot know enough about their fundamentals and other aspects of their business.

    *(beyond vanity purchases like a few shares of stock. that’s insignificant to one’s bottom line…we hope.)

    **(at least as far as audio goes – the screens are tiny and their low-end is generally ugly but that’s not as important to me as great EQ functionality)

  74. denying that apple’s success is partially due to fashion and design is rather silly, no?

    looks are important. form is important. such “shallow” traits are a huge part of consumer electronics. most people don’t buy, for example, an mp3 player because they need various functions, but because it appeals to them as part of a larger package on several levels. it’s no longer the social marker (i.e. “i have money”) that it was earlier this decade, but that doesn’t mean that appearance has stopped being important.

    but more to the point of the post, solipsism as an investment strategy is dumb, for a number of reasons. whether you like or don’t like a company’s products is not a good reason to invest* in them. particularly if you’re emotionally involved in their success or failure – fogging up the glasses will never help anyone see clearly. that goes doubly when you have a personality-driven company, at least as far as its public image goes.

    i love me cowon’s audio players** but would never invest in the company. and not just because i’m not involved in the south korean stock market and live in america, but because i simply cannot know enough about their fundamentals and other aspects of their business.

    *(beyond vanity purchases like a few shares of stock. that’s insignificant to one’s bottom line…we hope.)

    **(at least as far as audio goes – the screens are tiny and their low-end is generally ugly but that’s not as important to me as great EQ functionality)

  75. Rah rah…we’re just as important and brilliant as Steve Jobs! We can do what he did no problem!! This is the same argument that says the President of the United States doesn’t matter. When Jack Welch left GE, they said they have the deepest talent pool in the world. Steve Jobs may not be the ONLY guy at apple…but, he’s the only one investors care about…and that is why the stock will plummet. Besides the fact, that they have the “BEST” everyone right now because they can demand that companies align their resources optimally to service Apple. They’ve had TONS of supply chain screw ups including not having enough 3G iPhones available…wait that was a marketing ploy?

    Get real people…Apple’s STOCK, which is what this posting is about…should be worth $12 by year end. Why? Have you noticed what’s happening out there in retail? It won’t matter at Apple…lot’s of people will want to buy $1500 laptops when they can get a PC for $500. iPhone’s? Yeah…those will be big sellers in 2009. Drop the price to $99 and they still will slow in growth. This company is priced for growth….SELL AAPL.

  76. Rah rah…we’re just as important and brilliant as Steve Jobs! We can do what he did no problem!! This is the same argument that says the President of the United States doesn’t matter. When Jack Welch left GE, they said they have the deepest talent pool in the world. Steve Jobs may not be the ONLY guy at apple…but, he’s the only one investors care about…and that is why the stock will plummet. Besides the fact, that they have the “BEST” everyone right now because they can demand that companies align their resources optimally to service Apple. They’ve had TONS of supply chain screw ups including not having enough 3G iPhones available…wait that was a marketing ploy?

    Get real people…Apple’s STOCK, which is what this posting is about…should be worth $12 by year end. Why? Have you noticed what’s happening out there in retail? It won’t matter at Apple…lot’s of people will want to buy $1500 laptops when they can get a PC for $500. iPhone’s? Yeah…those will be big sellers in 2009. Drop the price to $99 and they still will slow in growth. This company is priced for growth….SELL AAPL.

  77. I’m not sure. I still think that open source solutions will eventually surmount all the major corporations. I say sell!

  78. I’m not sure. I still think that open source solutions will eventually surmount all the major corporations. I say sell!

  79. Scoble Doeble it’s been awhile since I’ve checked in on your site. While I agree with you, I think that folks can get back in below what the selling price is today because there is just too much negative news out there about the economy in general. What with all the Bank scammers and corrupt corporations, unemployment, commercial real estate failures, and so one, people will throw the baby out with the bath water. Again, I do think one can get back in later.

  80. Scoble Doeble it’s been awhile since I’ve checked in on your site. While I agree with you, I think that folks can get back in below what the selling price is today because there is just too much negative news out there about the economy in general. What with all the Bank scammers and corrupt corporations, unemployment, commercial real estate failures, and so one, people will throw the baby out with the bath water. Again, I do think one can get back in later.

  81. So the question is what is bigger? Jobbs or Apple

    To believe (1) man can cause the complete downfall of such a strong company is non-sense. Granted to replace the “leadership” might be question, however the loyal niche followers have always enjoyed the opportunity of choice. With Graphics & Video leading us in to the next frontier, Apple will again provide the one solution many MS loyalist don’t believe is there.

  82. So the question is what is bigger? Jobbs or Apple

    To believe (1) man can cause the complete downfall of such a strong company is non-sense. Granted to replace the “leadership” might be question, however the loyal niche followers have always enjoyed the opportunity of choice. With Graphics & Video leading us in to the next frontier, Apple will again provide the one solution many MS loyalist don’t believe is there.

  83. You could be right. Hope you are. However, the last time Jobs wasn’t around, things went slightly pear-shaped. I think your post should perhaps have outlined how the situation is different now.
    I join you in wishing Steve and his family the very best in what I very much hope will be his road to recovery.

  84. You could be right. Hope you are. However, the last time Jobs wasn’t around, things went slightly pear-shaped. I think your post should perhaps have outlined how the situation is different now.
    I join you in wishing Steve and his family the very best in what I very much hope will be his road to recovery.

  85. you are an IDIOT. Apple does not just make high-tech devices. It makes electronic fashion jewelry. In order to sell those, you need some one who can generate hype and has the charisma of SJ. stop smoking whatever you are or at least gimme some!

  86. you are an IDIOT. Apple does not just make high-tech devices. It makes electronic fashion jewelry. In order to sell those, you need some one who can generate hype and has the charisma of SJ. stop smoking whatever you are or at least gimme some!

  87. Besides wishing Steve Jobs a quick recovery I was wondering if you could give us an insight into how Palm is managing to lure Apple talent as well as the purported strengths of the Apple supply chain. It will be really interesting to know. Thanks!

  88. Besides wishing Steve Jobs a quick recovery I was wondering if you could give us an insight into how Palm is managing to lure Apple talent as well as the purported strengths of the Apple supply chain. It will be really interesting to know. Thanks!

  89. Be smart about it, and loyal. Yes I bought some, not much but a little. Back in, about, 2001 I bought about 20 shares of AAPL at $12/share (yea nice) I sold 10 shares at $130 and 5 shares at $180, so yea, I made my money, and happy. Now I just own 5 shares, I know not much but I’m just holding on to that because I love Apple computers and stuff.

  90. Be smart about it, and loyal. Yes I bought some, not much but a little. Back in, about, 2001 I bought about 20 shares of AAPL at $12/share (yea nice) I sold 10 shares at $130 and 5 shares at $180, so yea, I made my money, and happy. Now I just own 5 shares, I know not much but I’m just holding on to that because I love Apple computers and stuff.

  91. We, like everyone, wish Steve a speedy and complete recovery. But yes, Apple will go on regardless. And I’m still buying a bit of Apple stock here, for my 401K.

  92. We, like everyone, wish Steve a speedy and complete recovery. But yes, Apple will go on regardless. And I’m still buying a bit of Apple stock here, for my 401K.

  93. Seriously, Steve is one of the most amazing and inspirational figures in my life time. Apple will not go down because of their innovative products, ideas and their fans base.. I am 200% behind Apple and Steve no matter what happens. I’ve been an Apple user for 10 years since my high school days.. and I am not going to change! Kill me if I ever have to use PC!

  94. Seriously, Steve is one of the most amazing and inspirational figures in my life time. Apple will not go down because of their innovative products, ideas and their fans base.. I am 200% behind Apple and Steve no matter what happens. I’ve been an Apple user for 10 years since my high school days.. and I am not going to change! Kill me if I ever have to use PC!

  95. It's prevalent that investors release their fund in the time when price reaches its lowest level. We should appreciate them rather than treat them as speculators. They can be saviors for they make the economy naturally flow. In this fidelity 401k bloom era, money is so precious. The good and commodity prices go down. I don't thing this is a turmoil but just harmonization. The property and other commodity prices like home and oil actually come to their real position. For long time, we have always dreaming of cheap prices and wealth life. This may be blessing in disguise.

  96. It's prevalent that investors release their fund in the time when price reaches its lowest level. We should appreciate them rather than treat them as speculators. They can be saviors for they make the economy naturally flow. In this fidelity 401k bloom era, money is so precious. The good and commodity prices go down. I don't thing this is a turmoil but just harmonization. The property and other commodity prices like home and oil actually come to their real position. For long time, we have always dreaming of cheap prices and wealth life. This may be blessing in disguise.