John Battelle on 2007 predictions

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He runs Federated Media, which is the advertising agency to many of the world’s top bloggers. He runs the Web 2.0 summit. He wrote a famous book about Google. He started the Industry Standard. And has done a few other things. Blogs here.

I visited earlier this week and met him for a fun conversation. Topic? His annual predictions for the tech industry which are pretty darn accurate.

We also talk about Federated Media and advertising trends for blogs.

Great conversation, if you’re a blogger who fancies making money with your blogging (or other media, for that matter) you’ll want to listen to this one.

Regarding the cell phone comment, I’ve been playing with putting my interviews live via my cell phone on Qik, but here it didn’t work very well because the cell phone service sucks where Federated Media’s offices are.

Federated Media does the advertising for Boing Boing, TechCrunch, Dooce, and many other popular bloggers and media developers.

Inside the online video advertising industry with YuMe

Since tons of people are coming into the online video business it’s good to know about how the money is going to show up. My friends who I’ve been talking with in the business tell me that money has finally started to show up. Andy Plesser’s videos are now seeing Adobe advertising over on, for instance. To get the latest I went over to YuMe Networks, one of the better video advertising networks. Here YuMe’s CEO shows me the latest in online video advertising.

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Facebook and MySpace ad analysis (are you a "fansumer"?)

Here’s a 20-minute video where Jeremiah Owyang, Forrester Research’s new social media senior analyst, discusses with me Facebook and MySpace’s new ad platforms. He was briefed by both companies and has the best analysis out there right now.

Oh, and he invents a new word “fansumer.” Listen to the video and tell us whether you’re a fansumer of a brand. Oh, and my brother’s bar is on MySpace. We’ll play around with MySpace’s new hyper-targetted ads and see if they work.

Proximic does better than Google at contextual info delivery

BREAKING NEWS: You know how Google Adsense works? On blogs or web pages? It looks for keywords used and then delivers ads.

Or, you know those “related links” things that are showing up on various blogs and news pages? They are generated the same way.

But Proximic just shipped a much better system than the ones I’ve seen from Google and other players.

Here it is. This isn’t a lightweight Web 2.0 company, it was under development for five years.

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#2160 on Amazon

Ahh, is this like egosearching for book authors?

Now that our book is actually out I’m finding that I’m watching Amazon’s sales figures every day. Today we’re at 2,160 and still have a five-star ranking. That’s out of hundreds of thousands of books.

Well, OK, that’s fun and all, but what we find interesting is how few people buy it by visiting our book blog and clicking on the link on the site. It used to be that having a link on your blog or Web site would bring a lot more direct sales. I wonder if people are starting to ignore anything on the sides of a Web page cause they know it’s probably advertising?

If so, that trend will impact the big advertising companies eventually (er, MSN, Yahoo, Google) and will mean that the industry will need to bring out a new form of advertising to grow revenues and profits.

Remember, we’ve been through this before. I remember in the late 1990s when everyone in the advertising industry assumed that banners were the way to do internet advertising. Remember what came next? Google.

Back to the book. Dan Gillmor, former tech journalist for the San Jose Mercury News,┬ájust endorsed our book. That means more to me than anything. Dan’s one of the main reasons I’m on this journey.

Advertisers must hate “accidense”

TDavid wins the “come up with a cool new word of the week” award for noticing “accidense.” What’s that? That’s what happens when people accidentally click on Google Adsense ads (he noticed that some Google ads have more clickable whitespace than others, which increases the chance they’ll receive “accidense.”)

Oh, I’ve seen people accidentally click on ads. I wonder if Google is able to discern how much of this goes on? Usually it’s accompanied by a very fast click on the “Back” button.

Shel and I are seeing a very similar behavior. Turns out if you search Google for “Naked” our Naked Conversation site is the 14th item on that list and it’s #3 on MSN Search. Almost every single one of those visits is a short term visit and people very rarely stick around.

This is an example of when picking a popular keyword isn’t exactly going to bring you the best results. I wonder how many commercial sites track their advertising effectiveness by how long the browser sticks around?